Bettors Love Michigan's National Title Chances, Are a Year Early
By Kyle Koster
Jim Harbaugh has restored hope and pride to the Michigan program. He’s turned Ann Arbor into the epicenter of the college football universe by winning 10 games last season and boasting a larger-than-life personality.
The public has noticed and responded by putting their confidence in the Wolverines. Michigan is the most popular bet to win the college football national championship in Las Vegas, ESPN reports. Their odds have moved from 15-1 to 7-1. They now trail only Alabama as the favorite to win it all.
In short, people are buying into the hype. A talent-rich roster and favorable schedule are undeniable. One can pen — not pencil — Harbaugh’s team in for 10 wins.
But I have some sobering, important news for the masses who are backing Michigan with their hard-earned money:
You’re a year early.
The Wolverines’ three most challenging games this season are all on the road. First, they must beat Iowa at Kinnick. Then they must find a way to exorcise some demons against Michigan State in East Lansing. Michigan is favored in each game. If the on-field product comes together in the way fans believe it will, there’s a chance they survive both.
The biggest obstacle in a potential national title run comes on the last week of the regular season at Ohio State. The Buckeyes are currently a touchdown favorite in the matchup of bitter rivals. Since these are the two marquee teams in the Big Ten East, it’s likely this game will determine a champion.
It’s tough to envision Michigan getting a playoff bid without a win in Columbus. The otherwise easy schedule — the very thing that makes a Wolverines ticket seem so appealing — is what will hurt them if they stumble yet again against Urban Meyer. An 11-1 regular season with no marquee non-conference wins stands no chance against a conference champion. The selection committee has proven what they value.
In that scenario, Michigan’s hopes would ride on Ohio State dropping two conference games. The Buckeyes must play at Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State, so there is a sliver of hope. There’s also no guarantee they’ll be able to replace the massive talent they lost to the NFL.
Predicting college football games against the spread with a 50 percent success rate does not make me an oracle. So take my words with a grain of salt. But if it were my coin, I’d wait a year to jump about the Michigan train.
In 2017, the schedule is even more favorable for the Wolverines. A neutral site game against Florida provides an opportunity for an early-season resume builder. Ohio State and Michigan State must play at the Big House. Harbaugh will have another year of experience under his belt. Potential superstar recruits will have had more time to become real-world superstars.
Make no mistake: hardware is coming to Ann Arbor. It just might take a bit longer than many expect.