Baylor vs. Oklahoma: "Big Game" Bob Or "Reliable Home Favorite" Art?
By Ty Duffy
Conferences have the final two weekends backloaded. Thus, the third to last weekend is a bit light. Georgia at Auburn and Oregon at Stanford being less momentous than most anticipated does not help.
“Big Game” Bob or “Reliable Home Favorite” Art?
The Big 12 powers had not played yet when the first playoff rankings came out. The playoff committee, as a consequence, gives Big 12 teams no respect. The highest team, undefeated Baylor, is down at No. 6, below oft-ridiculed Iowa. But, to be fair, such a high ranking may be a sign of respect.
The Bears have not faced a ranked opponent. The Bears have not faced a team with a winning record. That changes this week with No. 12 Oklahoma. The Sooners, it should be noted, have played two teams with winning records, Tulsa (5-4) and Tennessee (5-4). The latter win came in overtime after a late comeback. They also lost to a terrible Texas team.
Will the backloaded November games be a boon for the Big 12? Or, will the narrative about weak schedules be too entrenched?
Trends favor Baylor. The Bears are 24-5 ATS at home since 2011, 20-5 as favorite. Moreover, Art Briles has stymied Bob Stoops of late. Baylor has won three of its last four against Oklahoma. The last two wins were by four touchdowns. The loss came by one-score in Norman. Home is where true freshman quarterbacks tend to play better. The Bears are also on extra rest after a Thursday night game.
Metrics this season favor Oklahoma, to an extent. The Sooners are a well-rounded, top 20 team on offense and defense. They have obliterated their past four opponents. Baylor has a phenomenal offense (albeit with a new quarterback). Their defense has been below average at best.
The Let Down of The Century?
Alabama beat LSU in the latest “Game of the Century” iteration. Despite a loss, they are No. 2 in the playoff rankings. Mississippi State is a surprising 7-2 and frisky. Though, that 7-2 has come against a soft schedule. The Bulldogs’ best win is…Auburn. Will the Tide let down amidst the Cowbells?
LSU ran into the heart of Alabama’s defense. Mississippi State will throw over and around it. Bulldog receivers will challenge Alabama’s secondary. Dak Prescott is a mobile quarterback who can improvise when plays break down. Alabama has struggled against those of late.
Jake Coker has been more “John Parker Wilson” than “A.J. McCarron.” He ranks outside the Top 50 in passer rating and yards/att. The Tide will ride Derrick Henry. Mississippi State did an okay job against Leonard Fournette. An “okay job” was 159 yards and three touchdowns in a loss.
Undefeated Showdown Spoiled
This was set to be an undefeated AAC showdown. Navy spoiled it, blowing out the Tigers 45-20. It’s a good, Top 25 game to be sure. But, it won’t have implications outside the AAC.
Houston is 9-0 with two Power 5 wins and wondering why it’s still the lower ranked team. Playing the 117th ranked schedule (and not being Baylor while doing so) has much to do with that. That strength will improve with Memphis, Navy, and (potentially) Temple to go. But, 538 gives the Cougars just a two-percent chance of reaching the playoff, beneath three two-loss Power 5 teams.
More important for Houston than the postseason destination is whether Tom Herman will still be coaching them when they get there. The former Ohio State offensive coordinator has been an immediate success with the undefeated Cougars. His quarterback Greg Ward Jr. could be in the Heisman mix. His star defensive coordinator Tony Orlando’s name will be on Power 5 lips.
Herman does have a $2.25 million buyout clause his first three seasons. That may scare off Miami. It won’t scare off South Carolina.
PICKS
We went 2-3 last week ATS, falling to 30-20 on the season. We still maintain Utah over Washington was a bad beat. Moving on… This week, some sandwiches sound tasty.
Iowa State (+14) vs. Oklahoma State: This is a fat, juicy Reuben of a sandwich game. Oklahoma State is fresh off a massive TCU win. Baylor and Oklahoma are on deck. In between, the Cowboys take a road trip to Ames, where their dreams died in 2011. OSU has not impressed on the road. They came from behind against underwhelming CMU, Texas, and Texas Tech teams. They blew a two-touchdown, second half lead against West Virginia. Paul Rhoads gets a moral victory.
Kansas State (+5.5) vs. Texas Tech: Texas Tech is crap Baylor. The Red Raiders’ offense isn’t as efficient. They can’t stop the run. That same clock-eating strategy Bill Snyder used to keep Baylor close should pay dividends. Consider the fatigue factor too. Tech is playing its 11th straight week. Kansas State has had both bye weeks, and enters this one with extra rest after playing Thursday night. First 2015 conference win for Bill Snyder.
Colorado (+16.5) vs. USC: This is another sandwich game. It’s a let down spot for USC after a big come-from-behind win over Arizona. The Pac 12 title hype train is back on the rails. It’s a look ahead spot with Oregon and UCLA the final two weeks. It’s short rest for a road Friday night game. A pyrotechnic passing game meets cold weather (kickoff temp in the 30s). Colorado has been competitive. They were in games in the 4th quarter in losses to Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. USC has to play efficiently for four quarters and slam the door defensively to cover that spread. They won’t.
Maryland (+15) at Michigan State: Yet one more sandwich game. Michigan State is reeling from the controversial Nebraska loss. Ohio State is on deck. Maryland doesn’t win games. They don’t keep it together for four quarters. But, they fight. The Terps have played five of the nation’s Top 16 S&P+ defenses the past five weeks. Michigan State ranks 45th. Maryland is dangerous on special teams. The Spartans have been abysmal. Take the points.
Missouri (+5.5) vs. BYU: BYU has a boom or bust, one dimensional passing offense with a freshman quarterback. Missouri has a legit Top 10 defense. They have allowed five 30-plus yard pass plays through nine games, tied for fewest in FBS. Check the Michigan game to see how facing a defense like that on the road went for BYU. A pumped up Missouri scores enough to cover, at least.