Mel Kiper has Tua Tagovailoa going fifth overall to the Miami Dolphins, which I think is probably a bit higher than most of us expected when he went down with a hip injury in November. And Bart Scott, appearing on Get Up, would have him going even higher -- no. 3 overall to the Detroit Lions:
"I don't see how the Detroit Lions let Tua get past them," Scott said. "They understand that they've had Matthew Stafford. He's only 31 years old. But we've seen what it looks like to have Stafford for 11 years. You're not gonna win a Super Bowl with him. If you're a young, struggling head coach in this league and you want to press the reset button, you can't let a guy with arm talent and vision get away."
Scott is correct that Matt Patricia is struggling, but the fact that Lions owner Martha Ford issued an ultimatum of contend for the playoffs or else means that Patricia is going to be in win-now mode. Looking at the 2020 NFL season in a vacuum, does Tua give Detroit a better opportunity to win games than Stafford? Given the question marks of Tua's health combined with having to get acclimated to a higher level of play and a new system, I wouldn't bet on it.
Scott also said that this would be an opportunity to trade Stafford and get some picks, and be able to start out with a young core. However, trading Stafford would have severe cap consequences for the Lions:
As our managing editor Kyle Koster wrote, it's in the Lions' best interest for the rest of the league to think they are interested in Tua. However, pragmatically and from a human nature perspective, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for them to pick him third overall.