Bad Ohio State Loss Won't Derail Jim Harbaugh and Michigan
By Ty Duffy
Round one between Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh is over. It went to Urban. The “underdog” Buckeyes powered over Michigan in the second half for a 42-13 win. Historical score comparisons – dating back to the cloud of dust era – mean little. But, the loss was bad, and in Ann Arbor. More than a few Maize and Blue rolls will be slowed on social media.
Rivalry blowouts wound. But, Wolverine fans should not feel too despondent. On aggregate, 2015 was a great Year One.
Harbaugh boosted Michigan from 5-7 to 9-3, without a significant talent upgrade. Not one college football media member picked them to win more than eight. Fans would have accepted that record gladly in August.
Progress was legitimate. Unlike 2011, Michigan was unlucky recovering fumbles. The Wolverines jumped from 82nd to 34th in S&P+ offense. Though the bottom fell out at the finish, they rose from 18th to 2nd in S&P+ defense. Players across the depth chart improved markedly from 2014 to 2015 and from month to month. The passing game – a black hole in April and off-kilter in September – carried the team in November.
Ohio State’s beatdown did not expose flaws in the plan. A very talented team showed up, and exploited apparent, unavoidable weaknesses.
Michigan faded against the run. Their four games allowing four-plus yards/carry came in the final five. The fifth was Penn State’s inept line. This was no coincidence. The Wolverines could not afford injuries on the defensive line. They had three season-enders, two at defensive tackle. Michigan, by the end, was still fielding a solid front four, but more or less every snap.
The Wolverines struggled running the ball. The best defensive fronts Michigan faced – Utah, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State – held them to double-digit total yards and less than three yards/carry. Even against average fronts, the pass was setting up the run.
Running and stopping the run has decided every Michigan vs. Ohio State game since 2001. The Buckeyes, on point, were poised to exploit Michigan’s weaknesses. Urban’s ballers played their best game of the season. Ohio State has a gear Michigan, manifestly, does not.
2016 should be more fortuitous for the Wolverines. Michigan returns a lot. They lose Jake Rudock. But, almost every skill player and four offensive linemen return. Their defense brings back almost the entire defensive line and secondary. Jourdan Lewis is coming back. Hanging onto Jake Butt and Chris Wormley would be huge. If Jim Harbaugh can cobble together a quarterback and some linebackers, that should be a good veteran team.
Ohio State could have a historic 2016 draft class. The historic draft class would mean historic personnel losses. On offense, they could lose Cardale Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Braxton Miller, Michael Thomas, three senior O-line starters including Taylor Decker, and guard Pat Elflein. On defense, the Buckeyes could be without three defensive tackles and probable No. 1 pick Joey Bosa on the line. Darron Lee, Vonn Bell, and Eli Apple could also leave for the league.
Michigan State too takes a hit in 2016. Connor Cook, the Spartans’ best ever quarterback, departs. So do his top two receivers. MSU could lose two seniors on the line and potential first-round pick Jack Conklin. Their defensive front that has been dominant? It loses every starter except Malik McDowell, including Shilique Calhoun.
Both rivals have great coaches. Both have recruited well. But, the ground to make up next year may not be as much as it was this year.
Harbaugh revitalized Michigan’s program the moment he signed his contract. The Wolverines being close-ish and a flubbed play away from double-digit wins this early was an absurd coaching feat. More would have required wizardry. Harbaugh is merely a driven, efficient human.
Michigan fought in 2015. For the next nine months they’ll be building. For the first time in a while for this moribund program, it’s only a matter of when.