Assessing Buffalo and Detroit's Playoff Chances After 3-0 Start
By Jason Lisk
Still, I think those numbers are only benchmarks, and for reasons I’ll go into below, I think the Bills’ chances are less than that, while the Lions are about in line if not a little better than that.
Buffalo’s main issue is remaining schedule and the number of potential teams in contention. Yes, they are the only AFC team at 3-0 with the win over New England, and their chances are better today than they were entering the weekend. Still, nine other teams currently sit at 2-1, and most are legitimate threats. The Bills, in essence, are one result between the best record and being on the outside looking in. A loss to someone like Cincinnati in a letdown would swing them right back the other way.
I went through their remaining schedule, and with all the games against the NFC East, two against the Jets, the rematch with New England, and games against San Diego and Tennessee, there are a lot of 50/50, or at best 65/35 type games on there. I’ve got their projected remaining win total at 6.6 wins. If they win more than half of their remaining games, they will get in. If they go 6-7 or worse, they probably won’t. I have them right on the cusp of that, and despite being 3-0, they need to win at Cincinnati. I’d throw out that 75% number and put the Bills at about a 50% playoff proposition. Remember, they’ve had the offense to come back, but they also were behind and did win two close games that could have gone either way. They still have a lot of competition to get in the playoffs in the AFC. Bills fans should be ecstatic that we are discussing their chances; I’m just trying to be the voice of reason.
As for Detroit, there are lots of reasons to like this team. They also just played a really bad half at Minnesota before rallying, and they were a 4th and 1 conversion (why did the Vikings use Gerhart?) from probably losing that one. It was a great victory for the franchise for historical reasons, but I’m not sure why people would be jumping on them this week if they weren’t on board before the win at Minnesota.
I like Detroit’s chances, though, because their situation is better. The division is more spread out, as the Bears are now 1-2. They have two less teams that are at 2-1 in the NFC, and they own the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay already, who is 2nd in the South. We know that the NFC West isn’t putting forth a legitimate 2nd place team for a wildcard–San Fran leads at 2-1, but no one looks capable of getting a lot of wins, let alone two of them. The NFC East will beat up on each other, and might put a 2nd team at 10 wins, but that tiebreaker over Tampa already means either a) Atlanta, looking vulnerable at 1-2, needs to surpass Tampa by season’s end, or b) Tampa Bay must win more than Detroit because of the tiebreaker.
In addition, the schedule has a few more favorite type games at home, including games in Detroit against Carolina, Minnesota, and San Francisco. I have Detroit projected for 7.5 more wins, which would put them squarely in the postseason, without even having to worry about those tiebreakers.
The Lions hype has gotten so strong that, according to Chad Millman, their Super Bowl winning odds are now at 10-1, among the leaders, tied with New Orleans, San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and trailing only the Packers and Patriots. I think that is a little much, though I have been on Detroit as a playoff team before the season and see nothing to dissuade. Unless they win the division outright (and the winner of the NFC North does have a pretty good chance to be the #1 seed), they will be going on the road, in January, as a dome team for three games. Even if we think Detroit is one of the 6 best teams, their path once they get to the postseason will be tougher. Again, though, Detroit fans should be ecstatic that their team is being mentioned along with the heaviest favorites to take home the Lombardi trophy, after three games.
[photo via Getty]