AFC Playoff Outlook: Things Tighten as the Kansas City Chiefs Collapse

On Monday, I broke down the NFC Playoff picture, and today we take a look at the AFC with five weeks to go. The most notable movement was how much Kansas City dropped by losing two games where they were heavy favorites. That has tightened up the bottom spots in the AFC considerably. The Chiefs still have the advantage in the West, because they have won at the Chargers already, and a win at home would make for a big lead with the tiebreaker.

I projected all the remaining game win percentages for AFC Teams. Here are my projected win totals of the AFC Contenders:

New England, 12.8 wins
Pittsburgh, 12.7 wins
Jacksonville, 10.8 wins
Kansas City, 9.4 wins
Tennessee, 9.2 wins
Baltimore, 9.1 wins
Los Angeles Chargers, 8.4 wins
Buffalo, 8.4 wins
Cincinnati, 7.1 wins
Oakland, 7.0 wins

Pittsburgh and New England play in three weeks and that one will likely decide who gets the top spot in the AFC. Jacksonville and Tennessee are tied again in the AFC South. Jacksonville projects with the better win total, but if they do not have a 2-game lead entering the final week, that game at Tennessee will be for the division. The Chargers’ hopes have increased, and the game at Arrowhead will be pivotal in three weeks. Outside of that one, they should be favored in every game. Buffalo has a similar win projection but a tougher schedule, and as we know lost the tiebreaker to the Chargers. The Ravens have a key game this week against Detroit. The offense has been terrible; the defense has been playoff caliber. The Bengals and Raiders are hoping to go on a run but project on the outside right now.