AFC Playoff Breakdown: Patriots In Danger of Missing Out on Bye for First Time Since 2009

In fact, the New England Patriots have not had to play a road playoff game in the AFC before the Conference Championship since they went to San Diego in January of 2007, and they have not won a road playoff game since that one. That’s what they are facing after falling to 9-5 and trailing both the AFC West champ and Houston in the standings with two weeks to go.

Here is a breakdown of where everything stands in the AFC:

AFC WEST CHAMP

The Chiefs have the tiebreaker over the Chargers despite the Thursday loss, because of division record (or common games record, if that ends up even with a Kansas City loss to Oakland). The Chargers loss to Denver earlier this year is looming large at the moment. So if Kansas City wins out, they are the #1 seed. If both teams lose one more game, the Chiefs also win the division, but the status of the #1 seed depends on other factors.

AFC SOUTH CHAMP

The Houston Texans had a crucial comeback on Saturday to beat the Jets, but they still have not clinched a playoff spot or the AFC South at 10-4. That’s because they would lose a division tiebreaker to either the Colts or Titans (who play each other in Week 17) if there was a tie atop the division standings at 10-6. Houston can win the division by beating the Eagles next week, but if they lose, the division is still open entering Week 17 unless the Titans and Colts both lose also next week.

AFC EAST CHAMP

Amazingly, the Patriots have not yet clinched a pretty weak AFC East with just two weeks remaining. They have home games against the Jets and Bills, so it still seams a formality. If the Dolphins win out and the Patriots were to lose both, though, the Dolphins would have the tiebreaker based on division record at 9-7.

AFC NORTH CHAMP

Pittsburgh maintained a half-game lead on Baltimore by winning against New England. It also eliminated the Browns from winning the division, though the Browns are still mathematically alive for a wildcard spot (more on that below).

Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore have tough road games next week at New Orleans and the Chargers, respectively, so whoever can come up with a big win will take the lead in the division with a week to go. In case you were wondering, a tie for Baltimore would not help, because they would lose a tiebreaker to Pittsburgh on division record.

FIRST ROUND BYES

The Patriots fell out of position for a first round bye with their fifth loss, despite owning head-to-head tiebreakers over Kansas City and Houston. The AFC West winner clinches a bye with one more win. Houston now needs to win out to get the other bye, and they go to Philadelphia then host Jacksonville, a stretch that looked a lot tougher when the schedule was released.

Pittsburgh is still mathematically alive for a bye as well. That would require them winning out, New England losing or tying one more game, and the Texans losing both games.

As for a potential tiebreaker between Houston and the AFC West winner if they are both 12-4, it still depends. If Kansas City’s loss is to Seattle and they still win the West, they would be the #1 seed on conference record. If Kansas City’s loss is to Oakland, or Kansas City loses both and the Chargers win the division at 12-4, it would come down to Strength of Victory tiebreaker, which is almost dead even now between the teams.

New England can still recover to get the #2 seed, by winning out and having Houston lose a game. But the path to the #1 seed, while still mathematically possible, requires Kansas City, the Chargers, and Texans all losing out.

WILDCARDS

The AFC West runner-up is locked into the fifth seed. The other spot is up for grabs between the AFC North runner-up, the AFC South runner-up, the Dolphins, and yes, the Browns. The Browns are a very long shot, needing to win out, have the Ravens lose to the Chargers, have the Colts and Titans both lose next week, have the Dolphins lose a game, and then have the Colts and Titans tie in Week 17.

Baltimore owns the tiebreaker if they win out, because they would have the superior conference record (and also have a win over Tennessee). Indianapolis or Tennessee, who face each other in Week 17, need to win out and have the Steelers or Ravens lose a game. Miami would need to win out, and then would need the right combination at 9-7. They would lose a three-way tiebreaker involving Baltimore and Tennessee, because–and this complicated–Tennessee lost to both Baltimore and Miami and would be kicked out. Baltimore would then win the tiebreaker. They would win a three-way tiebreaker involving Baltimore and Indianapolis because of conference record, and would also beat the Colts or Titans.

Here are the remaining schedule for all contenders:

Kansas City (11-3)

at Seattle
vs. Oakland

LA Chargers (11-3)

vs. Baltimore
at Denver

Houston (10-4)

at Philadelphia
vs. Jacksonville

New England (9-4)

vs. Buffalo
vs. NY Jets

Pittsburgh (8-5-1)

at New Orleans
vs. Cincinnati

Baltimore (8-6)

at LA Chargers
vs. Browns

Tennessee (8-6)

vs. Washington
vs. Indianapolis

Indianapolis (8-6)

vs. NY Giants
at Tennessee

Miami (7-7)

vs. Jacksonville
at Buffalo

Cleveland (6-7-1)

vs. Cincinnati
at Baltimore