A Belmont Stakes Preview

The Tosses: Three new shooters to the Triple Crown trail arrive in Monzon, Ruler On Ice, and Prime Cut. None look capable of contending. Isn’t He Perfect had no business being in the Preakness field, ran to those expectations, and is now inexplicably back for more in New York. Mucho Macho Man joins the rare club of Belmont entrants who failed in both the Derby and Preakness; he is likely
to attract some betting action based on his 3rd in the Derby. I’m jumping off that ship, however.

Back From The Derby: A whole host of Derby also-rans sat out the Preakness, but return for this spot, a formula that has some roots in success. Derby runner-up Nehro obviously commands the most respect of this group; this talented son of Mineshaft has done just about everything right during his 3-year old campaign…except get up for the wins. Once again, you have to wonder if the Belmont will be more of the same. Santiva ran a credible 6th in Louisville, and has been training well for this race. His trainer, Eddie Kenneally, believes he has the tactical speed necessary to
contend here, but I tend to believe he’s just not good enough. The same can be said of Stay Thirsty, who I didn’t like for the Derby, and dislike even more for the Belmont. Two Derby returnees who I do like, however, are Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed, who ran 5th and 7th in the Derby respectively. There were things to like about both horses’ Derby, but in reviewing the race, I think I like Brilliant Speed a bit more. Master of Hounds found a nice spot at the rail and got by tiring horses, but Brilliant Speed seem to be running a little bit harder. Both appear to be well-bred for the 1 1/2 mile distance, and neither would shock me in the winner’s
circle.

Battle of The Champs: Animal Kingdom is a fantastic colt, and I’ve been a backer all spring. Picked him 2nd in the Derby, he finished 1st. Picked him 2nd in the Preakness, he finished 2nd. I think he’s a lock to finish in the money here. As for Shackleford, I dismissed his chances in the Preakness based on what I expected would be a disadvantageous pace scenario. He proved to be much better horse than I gave him credit for, and as such, I am loathe to speak ill on his Belmont chances. That said, I think a repeat win seems like a major stretch. He’s facing a fresh group here (and a beast in Animal Kingdom), and I just don’t see another dream trip.

And The Winner Is: I think Animal Kingdom is the best horse in this field, and the most likely candidate to cross the finish line in front. However, he is unlikely to offer much betting value. Brilliant Speed, on the other hand, is likely to be an enticing price at 15-1 or better. So, I’ll try and beat AK with the fresh horse and the generous price. 1) Brilliant Speed, 2) Animal Kingdom, 3) Nehro, 4) Master Of Hounds.