Over the weekend, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its win totals for all 30 NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors are favored to win the most regular season games, while the Atlanta Hawks come in with the lowest totals.
Here is a look at all 30 teams:
Now that the NBA Draft has passed us by and all of the big free agents have changed teams, we have a pretty good idea of what the rosters are going to look like for the upcoming season. After doing some research, I came up with a list of the five best over/ under plays for the NBA season:
(Let me preface my picks with this…The ‘LeBron James effect’ is real. Three of my Eastern Conference picks are based on these teams winning a few more games with James going out West.)
Milwaukee Bucks over 46.5:
The Bucks finished with 44 wins last year, but got much better at one key position, Head Coach. Mike Budenholzer is a huge improvement over former Bucks coaches Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. He understands the modern NBA and utilizes spacing, ball movement, and shooting. Speaking of shooting, I love the offseason they had in picking up Brook Lopez, Ersan İlyasova, and Donte DiVincenzo. Why? All three can space the floor. Malcolm Brogdon was having a great season before he got injured, and should return back to form. Don’t forget, Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton are both going into contract years, so you know they will ball out. This will maximize Giannis Antetokounmpo’s potential. The King of the East should have an even better year, which should tip them over the 47-win mark.
Chicago Bulls over 27.5:
The Bulls finished with 27 wins last season – eclipsing their 21.5 number that was set for them – but have more depth and talent on this year’s roster. Let’s start with Lauri Markkanen. He had a terrific rookie season, becoming the fastest player to reach 100 3-pointers in NBA history, all while handling the spotlight of a rebuild perfectly. Since then Markannen has added 14 pounds of muscle this offseason, and played well for Finland:
Zach LaVine is also fully healthy, and just put up 50 in a pro-am. Yes, I know it is summertime ball, but it was still good to see him scoring at will again. More importantly he has been training with Drew Hanlen, which should translate to improvements on the court.
Jabari Parker coming over is still a question mark to some. But, even if he ends up not fitting into Fred Hoiberg’s offense or struggles defensively, he can still score the rock, and adds depth to a roster that didn’t have any last year. Wendell Carter Jr. and Chandler Hutchison also showed flashes during Summer League, and don’t forget about Kris Dunn, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez. All guys that play hard game in and game out. Going back to the ‘LeBron effect’, the Bulls were 0-4 vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers last year. Call it a homer pick, but I think the Bulls will be better than they were last season.
Indiana Pacers over 47.5:
After winning 48 games last season, the Pacers should take a step forward this year due in part to their offseason. They added some nice under-the-radar pieces in Tyreke Evans, Kyle O’Quinn, and Doug McDermott. Evans should be better than Lance Stephenson, O’Quinn is a good hustle guy off the bench, and McBuckets should be able to get a lot of open 3’s playing next to Victor Oladipo. Aaron Holiday was also a great value pick at 23, and should be able to contribute right away. Bojan Bogdanovic is just a monster, and Myles Turner will only get better now that he is eating well and practicing yoga.
Check out his ‘Dipo-like transformation:
If the Pacers are going to get this over, they will need Oladipo to take yet another leap, and I am all aboard for the ride.
Minnesota Timberwolves under 44.5
While watching the T-wolves play last year, one thing was certain, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins could not co-exist. When Jimmy has the ball, Wiggins would stand around in the corner. When Butler was out, Wiggins had some of his best games. The chemistry issues between the whole squad in Minnesota are also real, which was evident in the playoffs. Jimmy also turned down the Wolves’ contract offer, and like I’ve been saying for a year now, I see him going to either of the Los Angeles teams or the Boston Celtics when he becomes a free agent. And, if the Wolves’ season is not going as planned, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was traded, which would affect this total greatly. Don’t forget, the Lakers and Denver Nuggets both got better as well, which means someone has to fall.
Dallas Mavericks over 34.5:
The Mavericks are my sleeper pick to go over next season. I loved their draft…Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson are both winners, and Doncic is the most NBA-ready rookie. Adding DeAndre Jordan also helps them on both sides of the ball. Those three alone should account for more wins, not to mention the fact that they are coached by Rick Carlisle. You know he will have them playing hard every night. Dennis Smith Jr. showed some flashes, and should improve as well. The Mavs also had a terrific point differential for a losing team, as their total point differential for the season was -249 points. That may seem like a lot, but that averages out to about -3 points per loss. Also, Mark Cuban has come out and said they are not tanking, want to be competitive, and they want their pick to convert and goto the Atlanta Hawks (Doncic trade) to give them flexibility. All those signs push me to the over.
Two teams that scare me:
The San Antonio Spurs and the Lakers. Every single person that I’ve talked to are betting both the Spurs and Lakers win total overs. Vegas knows they will get pounded with over bets on these two, yet are standing pretty firm. Makes you think…which makes those two no plays for me.