Premier League Finale: Your "Survival Sunday" Survival Guide
By Ty Duffy
Premier League Title: Manchester City and Manchester United are tied on 86 pts. City holds a +8 advantage on goal difference. The goal difference is so overwhelming it’s not worth worrying about. A Man City triumph would mean their third ever top division title and their first since 1968. Manchester United can win their 13th EPL title since the league broke away in 1992 and their fifth in the last six years.
How should a neutral feel? Neither story is compelling. Manchester City got here by spending much more than everyone else. Manchester United have a tradition of getting here, by spending much more than everyone else. I’d say root for City, both for variety and for the fact their fan base would appreciate it. There will be plenty of opportunities to root against them the next few yeras
Manchester City vs. QPR [ESPN 2] Manchester City wins the title with a win. They could also draw/lose and still win should they finish equal on points with Manchester United. City has dropped just two points in 18 home league matches this season.
Sunderland vs. Manchester United [FX] Manchester United win with a win/draw that leaves them ahead of Manchester City on points. United has won 12/18 away from Old Trafford with a +22 goal difference. The last team to overturn a deficit on the final day was Arsenal in 1989. The Gunners beat Liverpool 2-0 to tie them on the table and goal difference, giving them the edge on total goals scored.
Arsenal has not finished outside the top four under Arsene Wenger (the last time was 1996). Tottenham would qualify for the Champions League for the second time in the last three seasons. Newcastle would qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2003.
West Brom vs. Arsenal [FSN or Equivalent] Arsenal can clinch third with a win or a draw with a Tottenham draw/loss. Arsenal clinches fourth with a draw. Arsenal has lost 7/18 away matches with just a +2 goal difference. Mikel Arteta is out for the season. Arsenal have not yet won without him in the league. Missing him the past four matches, Arsenal have earned just three points.
Tottenham vs. Fulham [Fox Soccer] Tottenham can clinch third with a win and a draw/loss by Arsenal. They can clinch fourth with a win or with a Newcastle draw/loss. Spurs have won just 3/11 in the EPL since losing 5-2 to Arsenal on Feb. 26.
Everton vs. Newcastle [Fox Soccer.com] Newcastle must win to get in. They can clinch third with an arsenal loss and a Tottenham draw/loss or clinch fourth with a Tottenham draw/loss.
SPI Third Odds: Arsenal – 62.1 percent, Tottenham – 33.9 percent, Newcastle – 4.0 percent
SPI Top Four Odds: Arsenal – 94.0 percent, Tottenham – 90.4 percent, Newcastle – 15.6 percent
Manchester City vs. QPR [ESPN 2] QPR stays up by earning a point against Manchester City or with a Bolton draw/loss. Djibril Cisse has played seven matches for QPR since joining from Lazio in January. He has either scored a goal or been red carded in each appearance.
Stoke City vs. Bolton Wanderers [FOX Soccer Plus] Bolton stays up with a win and a QPR loss. Stoke have been formidable at home, beating Tottenham and earning draws with Man U, Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea.
SPI 17th Place Odds: QPR – 83.1 percent, Bolton – 16.9 percent
Irrelevant Matches: Chelsea vs. Blackburn Rovers [Speed], Swansea vs. Liverpool [Fuel], Norwich vs. Aston Villa [Fox Soccer 2 Go], Wigan vs. Wolves [Fox Soccer 2 Go]
[Photos via Getty, Presswire]
Previously: The Premier League Invades U.S. Television on Sunday, Soccer Skeptics in 1990 Would Have Been Gobsmacked