David Wilson, Fantasy Football, and the Winningest Players
The list of the winningest players on fantasy football rosters this season has many familiar names, and you might be able to guess most of them. (That’s called a tease–tomorrow I will talk about the most and least valuable players). One name, though, stands out precisely because it does not fit.
CBS Fantasy Sports provided me with a list of players based on the winning percentage when they were on a roster. It includes a massive amount of leagues, somewhere close to 100,000. When I looked down the list, one name stood out: David Wilson, who ranks as the sixth highest winning percentage. Wilson currently ranks outside the Top 45 in points for the season at the running back position. Until two weeks ago, he was a non-entity, then he exploded for two rushing touchdowns against the Saints. Of course, he was likely on the bench if he was on a roster. Last week, in his first start of the year, he was underwhelming as the Giants fell behind by a large margin.
If you had started David Wilson all season long, you would have no doubt had a losing record. Yet, here he is, with teams owning Wilson this year winning 54.9% of their games. Wilson was on rosters for almost 1.2 million games on CBS Sports leagues, so this isn’t a case of a small sample size at all. So, in the immortal words of Vince Lombardi, “what in the hell is going on out here?”
Several years ago, Doug Drinen wrote about Courtney Taylor, a little used Seattle wide receiver, being a fantasy superstar. Contest entries that included Taylor showed a high likelihood of success, even though Taylor himself contributed nothing. Though David Wilson had very little to do with the success of teams he was on, he is highly correlated with successful fantasy teams, and these are my best guesses why David Wilson is among the winningest players in fantasy football this year.
1. David Wilson owners understand the value of players like Wilson when it comes to winning fantasy football titles. David Wilson is high reward type player. He was a first round pick of the Giants and is clearly a talented playmaker. He got into Tom Coughlin’s doghouse early with fumbles, but the potential combination of his ability, and a Giants offense where the running back gets opportunities and is supported by an explosive passing game, is a good one for success. It is about the process and not always the results, and if an owner was rostering Wilson despite weeks of non-production, he likely understood those risks and rewards.
2. David Wilson owners probably had healthier than average teams or more defined and better starters, and could afford to continue to roster him. It’s fine in theory to want to carry a player like David Wilson on the roster, who is a lottery ticket. When you can’t fill out a starting lineup through the bye weeks and need a starter, it is players like Wilson that get sacrificed. Wilson ownership is probably correlated fairly highly through most of the season with deep teams that didn’t need to search for 12 touches and hope for a touchdown from week to week.
3. David Wilson, like other later season additions, was likely added by better than average teams. The final reason that Wilson shows up among the winningest players is that he is being added to winning teams. This is not a phenomenon limited to Wilson. Colin Kaepernick, Knowshon Moreno, Bryce Brown and Danario Alexander are also above average in terms of winning percentage. All of them were added more heavily later in the year. This is a time when losing teams have started to give up, so that players are more likely to be added to playoff contending fantasy teams.
That third factor is not as strong for Wilson as those other names listed, where their play is a contributing factor to winning because all have provided a boost. However, I think in the end all of these things play a role, and the net result is that if you had David Wilson on your roster, you tended to have a pretty good fantasy team.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images]

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15 Responses to “David Wilson, Fantasy Football, and the Winningest Players”
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December 20th, 2012 at 5:33 PM
Doug Drinen wrote about Courtney Taylor
No way this guy plays in the NFL.
And, that’s my second Dandy Warhols joke of the week. Two too many ever needed.
/Also, my lord, cocaine has ravaged that no talent hack.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:36 PM
Dig! is one of the greatest documentaries ever produced.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:38 PM
Dig! is one of the greatest documentaries ever produced. Jay
It seemed staged. It was entertaining, I’ll give you that. And Anton was a really messed up dude. It just didn’t seem real.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:39 PM
I rostered him at one point this season and I finished 12-2 in the regular season,
/lost out in the first round
December 20th, 2012 at 5:43 PM
Holy crap. I had no idea that Jamie Mottram is TBL’s boss.
http://blog.longreads.com/post/38391965565/longreads-best-of-2012-jamie-mottram
December 20th, 2012 at 5:44 PM
KC…this was a really fascinating interview with Anton from earlier this year…still pretty bitter and surly, but he seems to have it more together these days:
http://www.smellslikepop.com/2012/04/interview-with-brian-jonestown-massacre/
December 20th, 2012 at 5:44 PM
Nice lil’ Crappie in that pic.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:53 PM
Crappie fishing is the shit.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:55 PM
KC…this was a really fascinating interview with Anton from earlier this year…still pretty bitter and surly, but he seems to have it more together these days:
http://www.smellslikepop.com/2012/04/interview-with-brian-jonestown-massacre/
Thanks. I’ll read it here in a sec. A couple months ago, I got into a youtube wormhole with them. They still tour and the tambourine guy is back with them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw1pvUNWWLE
December 20th, 2012 at 5:58 PM
So the moral of the story is that the better fantasy players have nothing better to do than to sit with their finger on the trade button ready to pick up the hottest player?
Or it’s just dumb luck and coincidence?
/Probably all dumb luck and coincidence.
//does not play fantasy football
December 20th, 2012 at 5:59 PM
Crappie fishing is the shit.
When the crappie spawn is when Spring starts.
December 20th, 2012 at 5:59 PM
The Rocky Mountain Arsenal used to be a Superfund site, but they let people catch-and-release for a few summer weekends every year. My wife caught the biggest goddamn slab I’d ever seen in one of the ponds there. Thing could have been a state record.
December 20th, 2012 at 6:06 PM
Thing could have been a state record. Gerard
The primary contaminants include organochloride pesticides, organophosphate pesticides, carbamate insecticides, organic solvents and feedstock chemicals used as raw products or intermediates in the manufacturing process (e.g., chlorinated benzenes), heavy metals, chemical warfare material and their related breakdown products and biological warfare agent such as TX
Superfund sites = Bigger fish!
December 20th, 2012 at 6:27 PM
http://www.smellslikepop.com/2012/04/interview-with-brian-jonestown-massacre/
Great read, Jay. Thanks.
December 20th, 2012 at 7:28 PM
I am in a deep 12 man league. I had Wilson on my roster all year. I have Peyton M. and Schaub as my QBs. I figured there is a chance they are both sitting for parts of week 17 title game (if I win this week) so I cut Wilson the week before finally got playing time. But he wouldn’t likely play for me anyway.
Question: This week I have Dez Bryant, Owen Daniels, Hakeem Nicks and Donnie Avery: Need two. Get points for TDs and yardage over 70 yds.