Atlanta Falcons 2012 NFL Preview
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Julio Jones and Roddy White form the best wide receiver duo in the NFL for the upcoming season. Sure, that’s based on projecting ahead, it hasn’t happened yet, but if you had to pick the top duo, that’s where I would start. White is 30 years old and has had five straight years of at least 1,100 yards and at least 80 catches. He joins Torry Holt as the only one to do that at the same ages, while other names like Rice, Harrison, Owens, Chad Johnson, Tim Brown and Welker did it four times. Pretty elite company.
Then there is Julio. He had one of the best receiving years for a rookie receiver (as did A.J. Green) in the last 40 years. He has looked like a beast in the preseason. He’s only 23.
This could be the next Moss and Carter, the next Holt and Bruce, where an established veteran receiver still in his prime combines with a young star. Duos both finishing near the top of receiver lists for a season happens frequently. In fact, if we use fantasy football scoring to evaluate production in yards and touchdowns, only four seasons since 1990 have not had at least one pair of teammates in the Top Twelve at wide receiver. Here’s a list of every duo to finish near the top since 1990:
Will Jones and White join this list in 2012? People that are concerned about Matt Ryan being able to sustain two star wide receivers, I present to you that worse wide receiver combos have done it with quarterbacks without the consistency of success of Ryan. Scott Mitchell? Chris Miller? Steve Beuerlein? Mark Rypien? Have I mentioned Tommy Maddox? Let’s add him. Brian Griese, too.
So while guys catching passes from Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Steve Young are on here, it’s not a prerequisite that you have a future Hall of Famer. When I compared other quarterbacks to Ryan, adjusting for league environment, his list of most similar players at the same age was impressive. He wouldn’t be the first quarterback to show improvement as he enters his late 20′s.
The offense appears to be moving toward a more open passing game, with Turner turning 30 and the emergence of Jones. The team did lose Will Svitek, who replaced Sam Baker over the second half of last year at left tackle, to a preseason injury. They need to hope Baker has a bounce back year now, or game plan around him. We’ve seen other passing attacks do that, most notably division rival New Orleans. Otherwise, it’s full speed ahead. Atlanta looks like a safe bet to at least be a contender again.
For years, this franchise could not put together consistency, famously never having consecutive winning seasons. That changed when Mike Smith and Matt Ryan arrived. Now, they’ve won more than 8 games for four straight years. They just haven’t overcome in the playoffs yet. I’ll point out that they lost to the last two Super Bowl Champions, and on the road at another who went to the Super Bowl. It’s not like other teams were beating those teams in the postseason either. I doubt there is any genetic flaw with this team that prevents them from winning a playoff game. It will depend on matchups and where the game is played. With Julio Jones and Roddy White, though, they should be okay. Four of the last five playoff teams with the top receiving duo have reached the Super Bowl, often from the wildcard round. If Julio emerges as a true stud this year, then they will be hard to defend come January.
[photo via US Presswire]

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143 Responses to “Atlanta Falcons 2012 NFL Preview”
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August 29th, 2012 at 10:59 AM
It’s not just that they’ve lost in the playoffs, it’s that they were not even remotely competitive in the games (referring to the last 2 years in particular).
August 29th, 2012 at 11:03 AM
Something about Matt Ryan makes me want to give him a roundhouse to the face. Oddly, I don’t mind the rest of ATL. Just Ryan.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:05 AM
I think he’ll be Brad Johnson, who looked prettayyy prettayyyy good (but nothing spectacular) getting the ball to Moss/Carter the first 2 weeks of ’98 before breaking his leg.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:09 AM
This post was supposed to go up at noon, but in honor of Matt Ryan, Lisk checked down and went with the safer time to post.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
I’ll second this.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
Henry Ellard and Flipper Anderson. Forgot about that sick duo.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
That sack of shit was throwing to Moore, Perriman and Morton. Not to mention Barry Sanders in the backfield.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
Matt Ryan = most overhyped player in the NFL.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
I’ve gotten more cynical when it comes to Ryan. I don’t think he is a bum or a bad quarterback. It’s not like they have Sanchez or Tebow playing QB for them. But time and time again, I’ve seen him struggle with deep throws. I’m not so sure bulking up is the solution. You either can accurately complete deep throws, or you can’t. It’s not like Manning or Brady are candidates for the Mr. Universe title.
http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2011/11/17/espn-confirms-it-matt-ryan-isnt-the-king-of-the-deep-pass/
As the above article shows, he is a below par deep passer. Jones/White is such a lethal weapon. But we have entrusted Gomer Pyle to fire that weapon.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:12 AM
From the EIC’s drop in the previous post:
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/register/joingroup
group ID: 20041
password: ateam
/howabout using commenter names so I know who I’m losing to?
//picks Cleveland, week 1
August 29th, 2012 at 11:12 AM
Ice beers are terrible. Matt Ryan is nicknamed Matty Ice. Therefore, Matt Ryan is terrible.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:14 AM
That’s going way overboard. He is a good quarterback. Just not a great one. Besides, I don’t think you can call any Atlanta athlete overhyped. National media doesn’t usually fall over themselves to cover us like they do with Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, Jets, Giants, Patriots etc.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:14 AM
You know how receivers go hang out and learn from Larry Fitzgerald in the summer. Sanchez, Kevin Kolb and Colt McCoy spend time with Matt Ryan and learn to upgrade their checkdowns in the summer.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Counterpoint: Icing bros is awesome. Matt Ryan is nicknamed Matty Ice. Therefore, Matt Ryan is brotastic.
/crm
August 29th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Those guys made Jim Everett look like a million damned dollars.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Who the hell still hypes Matt Ryan? If anything he’s shifted to being underappreciated when compared to some of the other rot starting in the league
August 29th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
For a guy with those weapons who plays nine of 16 games, minimum, in a dome each season, Matt Ryan is a complete disappointment. I do not understand the love for this guy. Not a bad player, but completely unremarkable all the same.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:17 AM
You hear analysts and football people constantly slather praise on this guy. He’s considered right below the elite QBs in this league. That’s crazy for a guy who has never won a playoff game.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:17 AM
I agree. For some reason the piling on with him has reached an absurd level.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Could’ve been worse. I really don’t think he was THAT bad, he was just Jeff George-ian in his meatheadedness and threw way too many careless interceptions. But it’s not like he was throwing 5 yard dumpoffs every play.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:18 AM
This is my fantasy football league’s 19th year. I looked at that chart and recalled some epic years from JAmes Lofton. And fuck that McCafferty guy from DEN vulturing away all of those TDs from Rod Smith.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Who do you think should replace him in “right below elite” list?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:19 AM
Flacco hype is way worse
August 29th, 2012 at 11:19 AM
Third’d
August 29th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
John Clayton called Joe Flacco actually elite last season…you switch those two guys and Baltimore’s probably gotten to a Super Bowl in the last three years
August 29th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Piling on? The general consensus on Ryan is that he’s a top 10 QB. That’s absurd.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:21 AM
I’d say that Phillip Rivers is more “over-hyped” for the overall postseason success. I mean the Falcons have shit the bed in some playoff games but at least they do well in a good division. SD struggles to even go .500 in that gawd awful division.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:21 AM
So what’s your top 10 list?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:21 AM
What’s a Survival league? is that the new name for the suicide pools?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Or if Lee Evans holds on to the ball.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Well, Flacco is actually good. And outside of Tony Romo, I’m not sure there’s a more unfairly criticized player in the entire NFL than Flacco.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
golden richards and drew pearson
/10-year-old me
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Something tells me you don’t have the skills to pull this off, but that shouldn’t stop anyone from trying.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
Until you watch half the teams in the NFL and realize there’s a ton of crap standing under center.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
He’s the worst “good” quarterback I’ve ever seen in a 2 minute drill.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:23 AM
Jaws’ rankings. Probably the best list I’ve seen in a long time.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:23 AM
that McCafferty guy
bow down to fast white boys with fat wives
August 29th, 2012 at 11:24 AM
What’s a Survival league? is that the new name for the suicide pools?
what’s a suicide pool?
surival league is where you pick a team each week, no repeats, and if your team loses you;re out
August 29th, 2012 at 11:24 AM
Matt Ryan has never once won a playoff game, generating all of zero points last year against the Giants, but he’d have taken the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Can’t argue with that logic, I suppose.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:25 AM
no order: Brady, Manning, Manning, Rodgers, Cutler, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Brees, Romo. Matt Ryan is in the 11-16 range.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:25 AM
The red falcons helmets are possibly the best in the NFL.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:26 AM
vez,
we’re talking about the same thing. It was always known as the suicide pool.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:26 AM
/howabout using commenter names so I know who I’m losing to?
fuck that’s boring. you must be rich
poor and fun
/i fucking love to cuddle
August 29th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
That’s a fair point. I just don’t think he’s “elite.”
August 29th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
He’s not better than Ryan at anything other than being on a team with a better defense…even for all the checkdown talk Ryan’s got a higher career YPA
August 29th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
If you move Stafford up to seven and don’t change the rest of it, sure.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Ryan was a top 10 QB last year. No question.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
Jones/White is such a lethal weapon. But we have entrusted Gomer Pyle to fire that weapon.
but ice came first, so they drafted poorly to surround him with too much talent
August 29th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
I was gonna’ guess that Duper and Clayton were the best 1-2 fantasy punch (’84? ’86?) ever, but it looks like Harrison/Wayne and Moss/Carter have them beat.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
My friends and I met Dunta Robinson at a sports bar during France-Spain game. All of us are huge Falcons fans and they went up to talk to him and take pictures. They gushed like little schoolgirls about how nice he was. I didn’t go with them. All I could think about was how massively overpaid he was and how he consistently got burned by every decent wide receiver in the league. Thought about telling him that he sucked and take off running. Hey, if WR’s can outrun him on consistent basis, perhaps I too have a shot. But then I realized that I’m an unathletic simpleton who got benched during youth soccer. So I just sat there and cursed at him and the Falcons in silence.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
Thanks to Fondle My Sweaters, I’ve been watching The State videos for the past half hour. Bless his soul.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Flacco and Cutler arent better than Ryan.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Your logic is flawless.
My team name is “When 6 & 15 become 1″ because ‘Unrivaled Lust: The Jet’s QB Story’ did not fit.
Other rejected names:
Hope Solo Murper
Legitimately Illegitimate Rape
Romney fucks orphans
August 29th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
swann/the other guy?
rice/the other guy?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Something tells me you don’t have the skills to pull this off, but that shouldn’t stop anyone from trying.
Matt Ryan is a yuppie piece of shit who went to B.C. and some haughty charter school. He probably sucks his thumb at night. Hate him.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:30 AM
“Jake, I love the tacos, okay? They… they may be the best tacos I’ve ever had.”
August 29th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
Better arm
Better postseason player
Better QB rating
Better YPC
I can’t state this enough, either — those nine games a year in a dome make a massive difference in passing stats. Matt Ryan doesn’t face Pittsburgh’s defense twice a year in 40 degree weather. He’s playing against bad defenses inside or in warm weather (Carolina, Tampa) almost every game. It’s not apples and oranges, but discounting the dome is ridiculous.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
I joined the survival league.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
This is just not true, at all. Maybe two years ago Ryan was overhyped, but now everyone understands his limitations.
He is in the same tier of NFL QB as Cutler, Flacco, etc. Who cares if that number is 10 or 16?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
My friends and I met Dunta Robinson at a sports bar during France-Spain game
Awesome. Flight back from Senior Trip we landed home in Nashville late and my friends saw Vince Young waiting for flight to Houston. They all went over to him and I kept walking. Probably because I thought it was lame to gush over a mediocre QB after his first year with the Titans and I probably couldn’t understand what he would say anyway.
/remembers NC speech he made
//still can’t underrstand what he said
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
It’s overlooked b/c Balt. was in the AFC title game and Flacco played pretty well in that game, but he regressed quite a bit last year. 23rd in Yards/Attempt last year.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
Once you get into that territory it’s more about what philosophy you’d rather adhere to: being overprotective like Ryan or forcing the ball downfield like Cutler or Romo. I’d rather have the latter on my team.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
He’s not better than Ryan at anything other than being on a team with a better defense…even for all the checkdown talk Ryan’s got a higher career YPA
+ 4 seconds of holding the ball for Flacco
August 29th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
Matt Ryan’s arm isn’t as average as Fitzpatrick’s but it sure as hell isn’t anywhere as good as the 10 guys I listed
August 29th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
No doubt. Cam Cameron’s moronic playcalling has a lot to do with it, but his completion percentage was down three or four points from 2011-2012. Watching him every game though, he was a better overall QB despite the numbers. I cant overstate how much Cameron hurts that offense.
If Lee Evans catches that ball the discussion about Flacco’s place in the NFL hierarchy ends. But he didn’t, so the narrative that Flacco sucks continues unabated.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Won’t disagree. But there’s more to QB-ing than having a great arm. And calling Fitz’s arm “average” is being extremely kind.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:36 AM
I’m in the denial phase of the reality that he will fuck up the season for the Bills
August 29th, 2012 at 11:37 AM
Hasn’t Matt Ryan lost to the eventual Super Bowl champ in all of his playoff losses?
narrative!
August 29th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
Apparently Emmitt “rites of patches” Smiff is quite eloquent in real life. You never know, Vince Young probably is a mush mouth when the camera’s are on him, but other time he might be the black John F. Kennedy.
Yeah, probably not.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
never fear, ATL fans. He’s still better than Sanchez/Tebow
August 29th, 2012 at 11:39 AM
If Lee Evans catches that ball the discussion about Flacco’s place in the NFL hierarchy ends.
I think most of us would still think Joe Flacco is mediocre even if Lee Evans catches that ball.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
1) Not by enough to matter
2) Gonna need more proof here than “Team Wins” since it looks to be a wash with Ryan having a slightly better QB rating…plus I don’t think Ryan’s ever been hidden in their games like Flacco in New England
3) Not according to Pro-Football Reference
4) Congrats at being better at YPC, too bad YPA is a better indicator of QB performance
August 29th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
I think Flacco has a great arm and great potential, something about Baltimore though, it’s like they’re stuck in this great defense, mediocre offense rut they’ve been in since the Billick years, no matter what the personnel or coaching staff is.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Matt Ryan isn’t pre-SB Aaron Rogers like so many people want to claim. He’s not playing well in these playoff games only to be sabotaged by his defense. He’s never thrown for over 200 yards in a playoff game and has more INTs than TDs
At some point he has to do better to justify his constant hype.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
His high school, Penn Charter, is a pretty exclusive private school.
You’re not getting in unless your parents have some juice.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
If Lee Evans tried hard enough to catch the ball, he would still be in Buffalo.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:42 AM
This morning I was on Amazon and noticed that the audio version of his book is not narrated by him.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:42 AM
You’re inventing something in your own head to be annoyed with…maybe as a rookie and the next year the praise didn’t match the performance but since then he’s been more of an afterthought in NFL chatter (even the year they went 13-3 I don’t recall anyone really trumpeting him up for MVP or even thinking they were making it to the Super Bowl)
August 29th, 2012 at 11:43 AM
He married a college basketball player from BC. She isn’t ugly, but being an NFL quarterback, he could do better. So decision-making isn’t probably going in the positive section of his resume.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:43 AM
It’s not absurd, it’s a reflection of the position. Big drop off after the four legends.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:43 AM
Its funny you say that, because that’s more perception than anything.
Baltimore has a pretty good offense. They were 12th in the league last year. Not great, but good. Rice led the NFL in YFS. Meanwhile, their defense, while decent, is vulnerable to the big play and struggles without a pass rush (zero sacks in all four losses last year).
I’m not going to say that the pendulum has fully swung in the other direction. But the success or failure of the Ravens this year will come down to the offense.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Or if he could run more than one route.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Out of all the crazy things Queefer has said the past few months, the views on Flacco/Ryan surpass them all.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:45 AM
I’m sure Joe Montana and Steve Young wouldn’t have been listed in most “best 5 arms” in the NFL during their playing days, but that worked out okay.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:46 AM
Didn’t JaMarcus Russell throw 60 yards while down on one knee?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:47 AM
The next Manning/Luck?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:47 AM
1. Flacco has the best arm in the NFL. It matters.
2. When one guy has never lost in the first round of the playoffs and the other has never won a single game, no, I don’t need more than wins.
3. Here I am using career QB rating on NFL.com thinking that’s accurate…
4. Why would yards per attempt be better? I don’t give a shit how many yards an incomplete pass went for.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:48 AM
you mean there are more routes than just run straight down the sideline?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:48 AM
Same with Kyle Boller
August 29th, 2012 at 11:49 AM
Because that not only reflects how far your throws usually go, but how accurate you are with those throws.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:49 AM
Kyle Boller is the best QB ever. He could throw for 80 yards on one foot while reading 50 Shades of Gray.
Seriously, Billick tried to sell Boller on those crazy arm strength feats. Then he tripped over his feet every time he backed up and there you go.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:49 AM
Flacco… that’s the dude who wasn’t good enough to start for a mediocre college team and whined his way out of town, right?
We talkin’ Tebow in here?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:51 AM
lol
August 29th, 2012 at 11:51 AM
That’s a massively flawed metric. There are a lot of factors that skew that stat — wide receiver skill, type of offensive scheme, environmental factors, etc. Matt Ryan better have a huge YPA playing in a dome passing offense with Julio Jones and Roddy White.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:51 AM
Oh dear, this is Bayless logic
The numbers are exactly the same on NFL.com (Flacco – 86.0, Ryan 88.4)…this isn’t golf, the higher number wins
If anything there’s an argument that they’re similar with Ryan being only slightly better but then the eye test kicks in and I think of Flacco doing Flacco things
August 29th, 2012 at 11:51 AM
Would be far better as a median, not a mean, though. Plays aren’t normally distributed, and are much closer to a Poisson distribution, if anything.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Since 1999,
Top 10 Offense (Pts); 8th in 2003, 9th in 2009
Top 10 Offense (Yds); None (Highest ranking – 13th in ’09)
Top 10 Defense (Pts); Every year except ’02 (19th) and ’07 (22nd)
Top 10 Defense (Yds); Every year except ’02 (22nd)
Last year they were 12th in points, 15th in yards, 3rd in points against, 3rd in yards against. I’m not saying they dont have talent on offense, it just seems like their philosophy has been to let the defense win games and the offense not blow it. Maybe this year will be different.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Get it right, Butters.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Fantastic.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Looking just at road games, Ryan has a higher YPA than Flacco.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Where’s Spencer? Flacco is his bread and butter
August 29th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Every defense in the NFL struggles without a pass rush.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:55 AM
Yup, he came from that great QB school known as Delaware.
I mean Delaware….
August 29th, 2012 at 11:55 AM
/Dom Capers nods glumly
August 29th, 2012 at 11:55 AM
I’d say that’s accurate up to last year. They’ll always be considered a defensive team, but with aging stars and constant turnover on the coaching staff, Baltimore is going to have to win games on the strength of its offense. Same goes for Pittsburgh. I love when people try and describe them as a ground and pound team.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:56 AM
Would it? If a QB goes incomplete-incomplete-80 yard TD, the median is 0.
Also they did a median study on RB’s and found out that pretty much every RB in history had a median of 3 yards.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:56 AM
this is now also Wilbon logic with baseball and Cy Young voting. He only cares about wins and losses.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:58 AM
Funny because it correlates to winning NFL games more than any other stat.
Didn’t Joe Flacco throw for like 37 yards in one of the first round playoff games he won (@ NE)? Must have had extreme moxie in that one.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Again, Jones, White, and a passing philosophy. He should. It’s not just environment.
Like winning a lot?
August 29th, 2012 at 11:59 AM
No, his first playoff loss was to Arizona, lost 30-24.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:59 AM
Yes. For certain analyses, it would. For fourth down decisions, especially. If a QB goes 0-0-0-0-80 he averages 15 YPA. But he lost 80% of the time he fails to complete a 4th down.
A median (vs mean) YPA actually is much more heavily impacted by completion percent, and by how many throws actually have a chance to go for a first down. I would love to see data comparing mean vs. median YPA and see what it looks like, and how useful it really is.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:00 PM
I would have guessed that there was a bigger difference in QB rating between Flacco and Ryan, given Ryan’s “checkoff” reputation and the overly large affect completion percentage plays in QB rating. Given the dome factor, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to put Flacco ahead of Ryan. Queefer might have some good points.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:01 PM
Really? Then why is Matt Ryan a career playoff loser?
Yes, he was terrible his rookie year, too. But he’s acquitted himself well enough lately that he deserves some credit for the wins.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:01 PM
Really, this surprises me. Do you have a link? I’ll try to google it. I’m not saying median YPA > mean YPA always… but it would penalize inaccurate QBs, and QBs who complete a lot of passes for 3 yards.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:02 PM
Passing philosophy is a function of your QB.
With Kurt Warner, the Cardinals had a passing philosophy.
With Kolb, they have an interception philosophy.
Same thing with the Ravens if they had a better QB.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:03 PM
What’s this?
August 29th, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Maybe I’m completely wrong. You’d have to modify the way you calculate it to get it to tell you anything important.
http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/04/median-yards-per-attempt.html
August 29th, 2012 at 12:04 PM
Better: a combination of comp%, and median YPC
August 29th, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Not really, no. Its a function of your offensive philosophy.
Ray Rice is the best running back in the NFL. Why not utilize him? The Ravens play in the physical AFC North, often in bad weather. Its stupid to try and sling the ball like Stafford and Ryan in those types of environments unless you have a HOFer like Brady or Rogers.
I will say that I think you’re going to see Baltimore turn to the no-huddle passing offense more now that they finally have strong pieces in place (Boldin, Smith, Jones) that suit their QB.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:09 PM
MJD is the best but ray Rice is right behind him
August 29th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Matt Ryan = most overhyped player in the NFL.
The following players would like a word:
Tebow
Chad Johnson
Jay Cutler
Matt Flynn
Russell Wilson
…
August 29th, 2012 at 12:11 PM
I’m not sure it would be useful except in certain situations (like the 4th down example you provided), simply because football is a game where you can fail twice as long as you succeed on the 3rd try. And yes the difference between mean and median would correlate highly with completion percentage, which on its own is not a useful stat and does not correlate with winning. A completion of 0 yards is only better than an incompletion in situations where you need to keep the clock moving (and are more likely to be running the ball anyways), and it’s worse in situations where you need to stop the clock.
In late game situations an incompletion on 1st-2nd down is often better than a short completion (less than 10 yards).
August 29th, 2012 at 12:11 PM
So they run because Ray Rice > Joe Flacco. I don’t think you are making the point you think you are.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:12 PM
Not only is Flacco ugly and dumb as a mule he can’t tackle worth shit either despite the 46 times he’s played on defense.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
The league rules have dictated a shift toward passing offenses. It’s easier to pass now than at any other time in history. The teams that have taken advantage of this have won Super Bowls. The teams that stick to “ground and pound” have a ceiling of reaching the AFC championship game.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:13 PM
The offensive philosophy of the Broncos has just changed pretty dramatically in one year with the same coach and OC.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:17 PM
He married a college basketball player from BC. She isn’t ugly, but being an NFL quarterback, he could do better. So decision-making isn’t probably going in the positive section of his resume.
I am ABSOLUTELY going to use this the next time I’m on a podcast. +2.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:21 PM
The Ravens aren’t a ground and pound football team. A lot of Rice’s value comes from his ability to leak out of the backfield and become a pass catching threat.
I think I am. Ray Rice is better at his position than Flacco is at his. Flacco could carry the load if need be, but there’s no reason to force a different philosophy on the Ravens, IMO.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:21 PM
Ryan is more than serviceable. I don’t know why people hate him so much. I think Mike Mularkey really held him back in those playoff gags.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:21 PM
Cant find it – but think about it, the NFL does not track individual carries to 1/10 of a yard. Ray Rice does not run for 3.5 yards on a given play, it’s either 3 or 4 depending on how they round it (whoever is in charge of that). So when you’re taking the median you’re taking the median of (for example) – 3,4,1,2,8,3,4,24,4,3,2,3,2, etc. The only RB’s who might have medians of 2 or less would be situational goal-line backs. The only ones that would have 4 or more would (possibly) be 3rd down backs who only carry the ball in 3rd-and-long situations. These would be extreme outliers without many carries who wouldnt be worth studying anyways.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:21 PM
Flacco has 5 tackles in 4 seasons well on the way to breaking Jake Plummer’s QB record for most tackles at 20.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:22 PM
That was not in his rookie season, so you’re incorrect on that one.
Because he’s played poorly in the playoffs. Then again, he’s never been able to throw for only 37 yards and still get a win, like Flacco.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Plays aren’t normally distributed, and are much closer to a
PoissonPoison distribution, if anything./fixed for STDs and Every Rose Has Its Thoorrrooon.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:24 PM
*sorry it was 34 yards.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:25 PM
Awesome factoid.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
The word “too” was used there as a substitute for “as well.” So, he was bad against the Patriots and in his rookie year, as well.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:29 PM
So there is the problem. The measurement, not the actuality.
The link I dropped did mention that they all have 3 ypa median. The tools just aren’t there.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Hey Nick… I have a crazy baseball idea. Do you know anything about binonmial distributions?
August 29th, 2012 at 12:50 PM
That’s what I use for options pricing, which I don’t do often but occasionally.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:53 PM
You think you could apply a binomial distribution to baseball, and figure out expected runs scored 1) comparing different OBP and 2) comparing different numbers of outs allowed per inning.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:04 PM
That is an awesome stat
August 29th, 2012 at 1:10 PM
People were calling Matt Ryan a top 10 QB right after his rookie season. Hell yeah, he was overhyped.
August 30th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
Just like Scam Newton.