7 March Madness Teams on Upset Watch

Ryan Phillips
Duke v Virginia
Duke v Virginia / Ryan M. Kelly/GettyImages
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Matt Bradley
Nevada v San Diego State / Sean M. Haffey/GettyImages

San Diego State

Brian Dutcher's San Diego State Aztecs have been excellent this season, dominating the Mountain West Conference, winning the regular season and tournament titles. They've inched all the way up to 14th in KenPom and have the nation's 10th-ranked defense, while holding opponents to 29.2 percent from the 3-point line. So why is this five-seed on the upset list? Because the Aztecs struggle offensively far too often and Charleston's 31-3 record isn't a fluke.

The Cougars have won 10 in a row, went 31-3 and two of their losses were by a combined five points. The other came against North Carolina back on November 11 (102-86) back when we were taking the Tar Heels seriously. Charleston has a balance team -- 70th in offensive efficiency, 75th in defense -- but they too hold opponents down from the 3-point line (30.3 percent), and have five players scoring in double figures. This is a tough matchup for the Aztecs and if their offense abandons them it could be curtains.