Everyone knows that the biggest factor in Tua Tagovailoa's draft value is his health. But what if that wasn't true at all and a growing number of talent evaluators have talked themselves into preferring Justin Herbert to the southpaw? Would that surprise you, like it did Pete Prisco?
See, that doesn't shock me at all. Misjudging top-of-draft quarterback order is one of the more reliable things the draft brings us year in and year out. It is at best all educated guessing. And to generalize, Herbert speaks to this group in a way reminiscent of a siren song.
He is 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds. He looks damn good in a uniform. He may actually be more athletic. He just seems more like the prototype.
These are all ways NFL teams have screwed things up before. To be fair, taking the more traditional model of quarterback has worked out plenty of times as well. It's quite an inexact science.
Though I have nothing to back this up, this time of year really feels like it can be ripe for paralysis by over-analysis. Proving that Herbert is the way to go over Tua seems like a project for a debate club. A situation where you have to work backward from the answer to show how smart you are.
But who knows? Perhaps a team will opt for the Oregon product over the Alabama one and be intensely happy it did. If this little nugget doesn't surprise me, nothing will.