Is Duke Still a #1 Seed After the Loss to Maryland? Let’s Do a Top Seed Blind Test

All, College Basketball Jason Lisk March 16th. 2013, 12:45pm

Duke lost yesterday to Maryland for a second time in the ACC quarterfinals, and now the questions begin. Does Duke really deserve a #1 seed? They won neither the league regular season or tournament title, and Jason McIntyre believes Miami should be a top seed if they win both. As ESPN Stats & Info notes, Duke has been much worse as a 2 seed than as a 1 seed since 1995. (Of course, some of that is that they are better when getting a #1 seed, not because of the seed itself). The selection committee does not care about specific honors. They will look at each game played and put them up against the other candidates. Wins in November count the same as in March.

So let’s do a blind taste test, with fake names inserted for the RPI profiles of ten candidates for a #1 seed. I suppose you could add up the records and go track this info down if you wanted to still vote for your favorite team. I’m interested, though. What would you value. The Top 25 win percentage? Avoiding bad losses if teams are relatively close? Overall record against the Top 100? I will reveal the identities, and hopefully the results of the poll with a good sample size of votes, in a later post.

Here are the profiles for our ten candidates:

Have at it. Vote in the poll. What you cannot tell from this is whether the Gnus or the Jaguars have a history of winning national championships or are a team without a big reputation. Good luck, and may the best four fictional team win.

Who Should Be The #1 Seeds? (Vote for Four)

Elephants (85%, 286 Votes)
Alligators (75%, 252 Votes)
Gnus (39%, 133 Votes)
Camels (36%, 120 Votes)
Hippos (33%, 112 Votes)
Fish (30%, 102 Votes)
Jaguars (30%, 101 Votes)
Bartenders (19%, 64 Votes)
Iguanas (8%, 27 Votes)
Dinosaurs (7%, 24 Votes)

Total Voters: 338

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44 Responses to “Is Duke Still a #1 Seed After the Loss to Maryland? Let’s Do a Top Seed Blind Test”

1
Ty_Webb Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 12:56 PM
does the site look jacked up for anyone else?
2
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 12:57 PM
Ty, it looks ok to me. What looks jacked up to you?
3
Ty_Webb Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 12:58 PM
The whole format looks weird
4
KC Resident Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:02 PM
does the site look jacked up for anyone else?
Yep. That five head is still up in the banner section.
/Sportsgal’d.
I went Alligators, Elephants, Camels, and Jaguars.
Why are they all animal names except for Bartenders?
5
KC Resident Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:02 PM
does the site look jacked up for anyone else?
Yep. That five head is still up in the banner section.
/Sportsgal’d.
I went Alligators, Elephants, Camels, and Jaguars.
Why are they all animal names except for Bartenders?
6
KC Resident Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:07 PM
The whole format looks weird
Oh, you’ve been away this week. USA Today Sports added a bunch of bullshit between the post and the comments earlier this week. Why, yes, I’m sure the demographic that reads this site cares about Khloe Kardashian stunning look. Get her hot body secrets.
I mean, Jebus. She looks like a damn Yeti. And outside of Tim Ryan’s need, I don’t think anyone here is looking for hot body secrets.
7
TNCOWBOY7 Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:24 PM
She looks like a damn Yeti.
Useful shot. Useful.
8
A.P. Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:32 PM
If indiana, miami, ans louisville all win their tournaments, then no.
9
TNCOWBOY7 Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:34 PM
Alabama is the foulingest sonsabitches I have ever seen. The games I’ve seen seems the only way to get a foul called is to shank a guy as he comes down the lane.
10
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:39 PM
Duke was smoked by Miami by 25 on the road. Beat Miami at home, with the return of Ryan Kelly and the emotion that went with it by 2 or 3. Didn’t win it’s conference regular season title. Won’t win it’s conference tournament title. Has been beaten rather convincingly by the Terps twice within a month. If how you’re playing lately factors for Duke the way it does seemingly for everyone else, there’s no way Duke is a number 1 seed.
11
TNCOWBOY7 Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:43 PM
Agree on Duke and I am generally a fan.
Also, it shocks me how little has been made of the Lions allowing Ndamukong Suh to be diving off of 50 ft high platforms. Or however high they are.
12
Jason McIntyre Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:47 PM
food for thought – are all Top 50 losses created equal? home/road/neutral?
13
TNCOWBOY7 Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:54 PM
Memphis just pissed away a game to Southern Miss going to OT setting up a dagger for anyone with faint bubble hopes.
14
Jason McIntyre Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 1:54 PM
What a finish in regulation between Southern Miss and Memphis. Tigers gag away 6 point lead in final 70 seconds. overtime
15
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:01 PM
Southern Miss needs to lose. Alabama too.
16
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:07 PM
Duke was smoked by Miami by 25 on the road. Beat Miami at home, with the return of Ryan Kelly and the emotion that went with it by 2 or 3. Didn’t win it’s conference regular season title. Won’t win it’s conference tournament title. Has been beaten rather convincingly by the Terps twice within a month. If how you’re playing lately factors for Duke the way it does seemingly for everyone else, there’s no way Duke is a number 1 seed.
Only tells part of the story though. What about all the other wins Duke has? Beat Louisville, Temple, VCU, Ohio State, Minnesota all out of conference. Have to take the whole resume into account. If you’re comparing resumes you won’t find 4 that are better than Duke’s conference title or not and this coming from an unabashed Duke hater.
Also you can’t diminish the Miami win by using “emotion” as an excuse. They still won that game.
Also Miami and Kansas have some horrid losses. Don’t forget not all conference schedules are created equal. Miami didn’t play at Carolina, at Maryland or At Virginia. Duke played at all those and got tripped up twice. That’s a big deal.
17
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:10 PM
Dammit Memphis airballer FT guy. You’re killing me.
18
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:10 PM
St Mary’s, Boise State, Middle Tennessee, Lasalle, Cal, Tennessee all soiling themselves watching Southern Miss and Bama right now. Feels nice to root for a team not on the bubble.
19
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:11 PM
Can’t stand duke, but they absolutely deserve a one seed.
20
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:13 PM
Memphis just shooting themselves in the dick.
21
Scalia Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:14 PM
Also you can’t diminish the Miami win by using “emotion” as an excuse. They still won that game.
Sure he can … he uses his EYES to watch a game not some damn computer.
22
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
Memphis just shooting themselves in the dick.
That’s why I can’t watch ‘em. I’ll root for them until my dying day, but I can’t watch.
Free throws. Every year, it seems, free throws.
“Go Tigers, go”, he said weakly.
23
Caribou Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
My complete disdain for the Dookies keeps me from objectively looking at DUKE as a no. 1 seed.
They are a great team, no doubt about it. If I was to keep my hate for them out of it, Duke prob deserves the no. 1 seed. Their body of work as WheresWallace pointed out, shows this. I thought MIA deserved the see more than DUKE, but they have a couple of bad losses to FGCU, GT and WF. The INDST loss was a tourney loss and some players were sick and Johnson hurt.
I guess my top no. 1 seeds are DUKE, GONZ, IND and LOU if they beat SYR for the conf. tittle.
/my .02
24
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:18 PM
Sure he can … he uses his EYES to watch a game not some damn computer.
Emotion plays a part in EVERY college game. Are we diminishing all of Nova’s home wins? Because I used my “EYES” to see they were playing off of pure adrenaline and emotion to beat Louisville, Georgetown and Syracuse. But I forgot, Miami didn’t use any emotion to beat Duke. Nope not at all. Not in front of a packed house going absolutely bonkers. But you’re right I’ll discount it because emotion is a PED.
25
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:19 PM
…here we go again…
26
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
Whew, thank you Memphis.
27
KC Resident Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
When are we going to find out which teams these are? I am intrigued.
28
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:21 PM
“Memphis, boy! I told ya!”
/Elise Neal’d
//bracing for the inevitable heartbreak in 7 days
29
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:22 PM
Up by 10, and commit a foul. Dang it. Dang it all to heck.
30
QueeferSutherland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:22 PM
Duke has better wins and better losses than Miami, they split during the regular season, and duke is just a better team. If Miami wins the regular season and tournament you can make the case they deserve it over Duke, but that sure feels wrong.
31
Some Random Old Dude Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:25 PM
/waves goodbye to Conference USA
32
Jason Lisk Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:44 PM
food for thought – are all Top 50 losses created equal? home/road/neutral?
No, which is why I created the Wins Above Median At-Large and am assigning a particular value to each win. I’ll post those later.
33
A.P. Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
Duke has better wins and better losses than Miami, they split during the regular season, and duke is just a better team. If Miami wins the regular season and tournament you can make the case they deserve it over Duke, but that sure feels wrong.
Duke is just a better team.. How much basketball did you actually watch this year? Poor defensive squad, rely too much on the three and looked downright bad when Kelley didnt play. How good are those guys if they rely so much on one guy to bail them out?
34
A.P. Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:07 PM
Duke was so much better that they too struggled to beat shitty teams like boston college and wake forest. Comparatively, duke got housed by NC State in Raleigh while Miami beat NC state in raleigh. Just trying to show how duke isnt just this better team than Miami.
35
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:10 PM
Duke is just a better team.. How much basketball did you actually watch this year? Poor defensive squad, rely too much on the three and looked downright bad when Kelley didnt play. How good are those guys if they rely so much on one guy to bail them out?
I watch a ton of college basketball and agree Duke with Kelly is better than Miami. It’s close, but they’re better. They don’t rely on Kelly to bail them out. They rely on Kelly to help space the floor for Plumlee and open up driving lanes. You have to guard Kelly with a big which takes away the big to big double team on Plumlee. They space the floor much better. It’s not like they get down and tell Kelly to go to work. That’s too simplistic. Kemba Walker was a “bail us out” player. Walker went one on one went UConn needed a bucket. Kelly is not that. Kelly is a basketball player with a set of skills that enhance Duke’s team play.
36
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:12 PM
[Gravatar image]
Duke was so much better that they too struggled to beat shitty teams like boston college and wake forest. Comparatively, duke got housed by NC State in Raleigh while Miami beat NC state in raleigh. Just trying to show how duke isnt just this better team than Miami.
Uh, you do realize a full strength Miami squad lost Wake Forest and then lost to Georgia Tech at home right?
37
cleet Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:13 PM
Miami didn’t play at Carolina
Yes they did, won 68-59. Duke with Kelly might be better but your seed is based on your resume.
38
WheresWallace Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
Yes they did, won 68-59. Duke with Kelly might be better but your seed is based on your resume.
Crap, you’re right. Duke’s resume is better than Miami’s. IF we’re looking at wins and losses it just is. You can value conference championships higher, but straight resume don’t know how this is even an argument. If your argument is Duke doesn’t deserve a 1 because they didn’t win either conference championship then you have a very strong case. All depends on your criteria. I prefer to look at the wins and losses and watching them play since schedules are imbalanced.
39
cleet Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:21 PM
You can value conference championships higher,
You have to value it. Winning your conference regular season title counts. I don’t think Miami or Duke is a 1 seed, both on the 2 line.
40
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:35 PM
Also you can’t diminish the Miami win by using “emotion” as an excuse. They still won that game.
When you tell me who Duke had to play on the road that Miami didn’t and you mention that Duke was tripped up a few times, you yourself are invoking emotion as an excuse. The whole idea of homecourt advantage is emotion.
41
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 3:57 PM
and duke is just a better team.
If they were to play 10 times, Miami would win 7 with or without Kelly. Miami’s big men are going to kill Duke on the boards in every game. Even at Cameron, Miami killed them on the boards even with Johnson sitting out most of the second half with two early fouls. On top of that, Duke’s post defense is mediocre. Duke’s only chance against them is what they got from Kelly, an extraordinary shooting night.
42
TNCOWBOY7 Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 4:04 PM
I totally agree with the above. It took a career night by Kelly AT CAMERON and Miami still was right in that thing to the end. I dont know about all the other measureables but just straight up head to head Miami is better by a good margin if you watched the two games.
43
robioland Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 4:53 PM
Are we even sure these RPIs are accurate?
I know Duke’s and it’s not here. Duke is 6-1 against the top-25, 3-1 against 26-50 and 6-3 vs 51-100.
Hell, I don’t see Miami. 4-2 vs top-25, 2-0 vs 26-50 and 8-2 vs 51-100.
44
Jason Lisk Says:
March 16th, 2013 at 5:26 PM
Are we even sure these RPIs are accurate?
I know Duke’s and it’s not here. Duke is 6-1 against the top-25, 3-1 against 26-50 and 6-3 vs 51-100.
Hell, I don’t see Miami. 4-2 vs top-25, 2-0 vs 26-50 and 8-2 vs 51-100.
I am positive they are accurate per CBS Sports RPI summaries. Of course, they may represent what a team’s profile will look like assuming they win a conference tournament. Miami is the Miami that wins the ACC Tournament, which is the only way they would be in the argument.