An Alex Smith deal is “effectively complete” but cannot be finalized until March 12th, according to Jason La Canfora. He notably does not provide the identity of the team involved.

Connecting the dots from several other reports, the Kansas City Chiefs seem to be the team most likely involved. On Friday, Jason Cole said that the Chiefs appeared to be the most interested team in Smith. The team that has expressed the most interest is the Kansas City Chiefs, according to Ian Rapoport on NFL Network. The Jaguars and Browns have both had people come out and say it is not them.

I find it very unlikely, putting on the NFL offseason skeptical hat, that a deal for Alex Smith is basically done two weeks before a trade can occur. I am more skeptical that we would actually be hearing about this now if it was true. The leak is obviously coming from a San Francisco source, and the other team is omitted. Better to let a team you are negotiating with (who knows that no deal is done with them) think that you have a better offer somewhere else you are going to take.

Here is my guess about what is going on:

  • San Francisco wants Kansas City’s 34th overall pick or better for Alex Smith;
  • If there is any offer, it is not currently for that amount, probably a third round pick;
  • San Francisco needs Kansas City to think they need to give up the early second round pick, or others to step in and increase the offer.
  • You get better offers by having competition, and making it seem like you’ve got a better deal does that.

[photo via USA Today Sports Images]