Ten Biggest NFL Offseason Player Questions to Monitor
As we move into the NFL offseason, there are several key free agency decisions. The decisions also move beyond free agency, as there is at least one notable quarterback who could be traded. Here are the ten biggest offseason movement questions to monitor as we move toward the start of free agency and the start of the new league calendar.
1. The Joe Flacco Contract. We know that Joe Flacco will be a Baltimore Raven next year. The question is, at what price? Baltimore can use the franchise player tag, which should help drive negotiations. Does Flacco really want to play under it next year if his demands are too exorbitant? His value is hot right now, and he is timing the market just right. Getting top five money isn’t always about being the top guy, it’s about hitting at the right time before others get theirs. The guess here? Not quite what Brees got last year, but somewhere in the 18-20 million range.
2. Branden Albert’s Negotiations with Kansas City, and What It Means for the First Overall Pick. Branden Albert is a free agent at left tackle in Kansas City. The team sits poised with the first overall pick when many are saying that Texas A&M Luke Joeckel is the top prospect. Signing Albert would not completely preclude Joeckel being the pick, but you would think Albert isn’t taking a discount to move positions, when he could sign elsewhere. If Kansas City does not pursue re-signing Albert heavily, it may be an indication of their intentions in April.
3. Chris Johnson Will Be Safe Once Saturday Comes. There were rumors, somewhat fueled by Johnson, that he could be released because $9 million of his salary next year becomes guaranteed if he is still on the roster. Ian Rapoport says he is safe. We should know by this weekend if the Titans determine that is too much to pay for Johnson at age 28, but the Tennessean now has coach Mike Munchak saying that cutting him was not an option.
4. Alex Smith Trade Talk. The biggest quarterback to change teams will be Alex Smith. There was talk off whether the 49ers would release him. Nonsense. He’s got too good a market in a perceived weak draft class. A decade ago, the Rams traded Trent Green to the Chiefs for the 12th overall pick, and Green had about a year and a half of starting experience. I think San Francisco will get the equivalent of a late first round pick for Smith, whether it is one or multiple picks moving to get there.
5. Avril Showers, Mai Flowers. Yes, that’s bad. I have to utilize taking French all those years somewhere. Cliff Avril has been wanting a long term deal with Detroit, and now hits free agency as the #1 pass rusher. I’m not sure his all-around game justifies how much someone will go. Michael Johnson and Michael Bennett are other defensive ends to look at. I doubt Paul Kruger of the Baltimore Ravens, who came on this year, is allowed to get to free agency with another team.
6. Lots of Offensive Tackles Potentially on the Market, in a Tackle Heavy Draft. Branden Albert isn’t the only offensive tackle. It’s a market where numerous starters could be available. Denver should re-sign Ryan Clady, but will Miami meet Jake Long’s price tag, particularly with his recent injuries. New England’s Sebastian Vollmer is in the next tier. Jermon Bushrod and Gosder Cherilus are also free agents.
7. How Will the Wide Receiver Hierarchy Break Out? Greg Jenning’s sister should be happy that her brother will probably get a better offer elsewhere, since the Packers are loaded at receiver. Dwayne Bowe should be a priority in Kansas City, where there are no other weapons in the passing game, but where his value has been sapped by dreadful quarterback play. Mike Wallace is ready to get paid and will probably leave Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, Wes Welker is a free agent, but the worst kept secret is that the Patriots could instead try to bring in the younger Danny Amendola to fill that role, who has been productive on the occasions he is healthy.
8. Will Steven Jackson and Reggie Bush Find a Market? Steven Jackson has a player option and could be available at age 30. We’ve seen the market for running backs dry up around this time, though all it takes is one team. Reggie Bush had some highlight runs but fell out of favor as the season progressed in Miami. Will a team get creative and carve out a role at age 28 for Bush where he plays more slot receiver and hybrid movable piece, like Atlanta did with Eric Metcalf in 1995, when he had 104 catches in the run-n-shoot offense?
9. Safeties in Numbers. Ed Reed is the big name, but is 35 years old. Several younger safeties could draw interest. Jairus Byrd has 18 interceptions in four years in Buffalo, William Moore has been a key member of Atlanta’s defense, and Louis Delmas is a free agent in Detroit. Glover Quin made the switch to safety two years ago, and has taken to it in Houston’s defense, and you would think they would try to retain him. In addition, Laron Landry and his massive arms are out there as well.
10. Big Names, But Will Teams Overpay for Them? In addition to Ed Reed, the market is full of 30+ star players on the downside, but who might still tempt teams. Wes Welker is certainly still productive. At defensive end, both Osi Umenyiora and Dwight Freeney are looking for one more contract.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images]

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104 Responses to “Ten Biggest NFL Offseason Player Questions to Monitor”
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February 8th, 2013 at 1:55 PM
Rams definitely out of the picture? I’m all for cutting ties with Welker. Good player, wants to be paid like a great one. SOP for Pats to let him go
February 8th, 2013 at 1:55 PM
He turned down 3 yrs 30M from the Lions last year. According to him, he was gonna bet on himself this year. He lost big time. Not a 10M a year pass rusher.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:01 PM
I like that comparison (even if it’s inadvertent) of Trent Green and Alex Smith. I’d never thought of that before
February 8th, 2013 at 2:02 PM
What will the Patriots do with their dozen draft picks?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:03 PM
Reggie Bush might not have a great market but I think he’ll be a great addition to certain teams. I’d like to see him in New England, Denver, or Indy.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:03 PM
It’s 2PM already? feels like noon
/only woke up at 10AM
//three day weekend!
February 8th, 2013 at 2:04 PM
Going to want too much money
February 8th, 2013 at 2:04 PM
a backfield of Bush, Hillman, and Mcgahee? I think Tristan just messed his pants
February 8th, 2013 at 2:05 PM
Welker is only going to regress. Pats would be better off targeting a deep threat. Also i think this is the year the Pats are short on draft choices, after all the wheeling and dealing and trading down they’ve done over the years.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:05 PM
Is this Pigsplosion?
/ Suffering football withdrawal
February 8th, 2013 at 2:06 PM
Ton of needs. Interior OL/DL, pass rush, cover LB, SS, and as always CB. Also, wr
February 8th, 2013 at 2:07 PM
Ton of needs. Interior OL/DL, pass rush, cover LB, SS, and as always CB. Also, wr
Another copy/paste error by me
February 8th, 2013 at 2:08 PM
as there is at least one notable quarterback who could be traded.
Tony Romo, if he won’t agree to an extension that gives Dallas cap room.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:08 PM
I can’t see it happening, especially since he’s got two years and something like $16 million left on his contractr?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:08 PM
Going to want too much money
Wants and attracts are not the same thing. If he has to sign for 1 year in July that asking price will fall
February 8th, 2013 at 2:09 PM
anyone want Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson as backups?
/drinks
February 8th, 2013 at 2:10 PM
Props to AP for getting a comment into the Urban post before it was taken down.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:10 PM
WOOSH!
February 8th, 2013 at 2:10 PM
Surprised the Revis situation didn’t merit inclusion. One of the best defenders in the game may be switching teams.
Good list though. I am curious where all the upper tier WR end up.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:11 PM
I can’t see it happening, especially since he’s got two years and something like $16 million left on his contractr?
That’s not cost prohibitive for a starting quarterback, what did Matt Flynn sign for last year? If a team thinks he is their starter, they would pay that in free agency.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:11 PM
Anthony Spencer should probably have been mentioned. Dallas can’t re-franchise him, and is going to a 4 man front, so he’s poised to get paid by somebody.
And let me cut you off and tell you that yes, he’s very, very good.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Rams definitely out of the picture? I’m all for cutting ties with Welker. Good player, wants to be paid like a great one. SOP for Pats to let him go
No, but a) they aren’t going to franchise him, and b) his agent ripped Titus Young when the Rams just claimed him.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Atlanta is in somewhat of a bind. I think they need to sign Moore, but damn is he often hurt. He’s not a Bob Sanders china doll, mind you, but he does get hurt often. He’s great when healthy though.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Still have seven picks, five in first four rounds I believe
February 8th, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Romo for Palmer…Palmer has one more year while Dallas grooms a new one (a Quincy Carter type).
February 8th, 2013 at 2:13 PM
Anthony Spencer should probably have been mentioned. Dallas can’t re-franchise him, and is going to a 4 man front, so he’s poised to get paid by somebody.
And let me cut you off and tell you that yes, he’s very, very good.
I should have. He was on my list, but I couldn’t come up with anything clever to say.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:14 PM
I’ve been ripping on Flacco, but $18-20 million seems appropriate.
/assuming that’s a 5-year contract, with an AAV of $4M
February 8th, 2013 at 2:15 PM
I couldn’t come up with anything clever to say.
A link to a story about the greatest arrests in Cowboy’s history would be apropos. Not because Spencer has ever been or ever will be arrested, just because there are some great stories in there.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
I should have. He was on my list, but I couldn’t come up with anything clever to say.
you could have worked in the word “almost” as many times into his description as possible, as that’s always been his nickname in Dallas. He was apparently the highest scoring OLB in PFF grades (and that’s maybe 2 straight years for run defense). He’s about to get paid by somebody, and it’s almost certainly going to price Dallas out.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
he’s never going to get it.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
I have a feeling that Flacco’s contract will be over $20/year. It just seems like the type of situation that is a perfect storm for a contract that shocks everybody.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
It’s hard to follow Avril Showers.
What team is giving up a low #1 for Alex Smith? Minnesota seems to be the only team in the 20s that would even consider it.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
Unless I’m tripping balls, what? Could have sworn they had their first second and third then nothing until the seventh where they have two.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:17 PM
I’ve been ripping on Flacco, but $18-20 million seems appropriate.
18 million per on average over 6 for a total of $90 million , 61 million guaranteed, 38 million upfront, and a 2.75 million dollar cap hit the first year.
/NFL math never makes any sense.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:18 PM
Wait? Why was the Urban Meyer post taken down? Or am I just missing something (as usual)?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:18 PM
Well thats great, but its a matter of finding someone ready (or stupid enough) to pay him what he wants.
Would love to see the Steelers make a play for a top flight WR. I would be fine with Jennings for the right price.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:19 PM
Hey Husker – you live on the Cobb county side of town, right?
You ever been to Henry’s Louisiana Grill in Acworth?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:19 PM
pats have 4 total picks. 1,2,3 and 7th
February 8th, 2013 at 2:19 PM
It possible the 49ers keep Smith since he has a reasonable contract, especially with Kaepernick on a rookie deal? Unless they think that too toxic a situation it could make some sense
February 8th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
Looks like someone fucked up the scheduling and put a post on top of this one. I blame Eifling
February 8th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
Not saying it can’t happen, but any team that makes that trade is foolish. SF has little leverage. Already have a qb and Smith is due a roster bonus early March, so they must act soon
February 8th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
/NFL math never makes any sense.
You’re doing it wrong. It’s 6yrs, $172mm, $18mm/yr avg, cap hit of $2.75mm next year, escalating to $97mm in 2018
February 8th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
Unless I’m tripping balls, what? Could have sworn they had their first second and third then nothing until the seventh where they have two.
I believe this gentleman is consulting a 2012 draft sheet, or perhaps he’s just talking from his behind.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:21 PM
Yes and no. But I love me some cajun food.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:22 PM
Ya, that’s my bad. Link I was looking at hadn’t accounted for trade picks for some reason
February 8th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
Wouldn’t mind the Lions calling up Kruger or Freeney.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
I’ll let you know how it is – long drive for me – better be worth it.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
I’ll miss Mike Wallace on the Steelers. He was an absolute stud before the contract issues began. Hopefully he gets paid and earns Pittsburgh a 3rd round comp pick.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
SF has little leverage.
they have all the leverage. Smith can’t negotiate with anybody. The bonus you’re so worried about is $1M. That’s pretty much nothing, considering his value as a trading chip.
They can pay that million and hold onto him until the eve of the draft, when people have a clearer sense of needing a QB or not. But that million is in no way prohibitive to dealing, especially since they’ll be trading his contract for fixed cost draft choices.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:26 PM
Go ahead and drive the extra 30 minutes and hit up Patak’s. You’ll thank me later.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:26 PM
It possible the 49ers keep Smith since he has a reasonable contract, especially with Kaepernick on a rookie deal? Unless they think that too toxic a situation it could make some sense
that’s exactly why they’re going to make bank on him. Because he is under contract, and because there’s no way to wait them out, because keeping him isn’t a crippling move.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:27 PM
They can pay that million and hold onto him until the eve of the draft, when people have a clearer sense of needing a QB or not.
Or even better, wait til June when the Bills have had time to understand that they just drafted Ryan Nassib #1 and they’ve got a huge mess to fix. A draft pick in 2014 is still pretty good from SF’s standpoint
February 8th, 2013 at 2:27 PM
It’s highly unlikely SF is willing to keep him into next season and the number of teams in the qb market is relatively low
February 8th, 2013 at 2:27 PM
Yeah I remember seeing a thing that said “Smith hoping for release.” Good fucking luck with that, Baby Hands McGillicutty.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:28 PM
Maybe not crippling, but 7.5mill on a backup qb on a SB contender is hard to justify
February 8th, 2013 at 2:30 PM
but 7.5mill on a backup qb on a SB contender is hard to justify
What if I told you the starter makes relatively nothing and you think of it as a budget for the QB position. In which case, SF is probably pretty far below league average.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:31 PM
Maybe not crippling, but 7.5mill on a backup qb on a SB contender is hard to justify
they’re paying their starting QB 750K. So for both QB positions, they’re not even at 10 million. That’s in no way crippling.
And Kaepernick can’t even ask to re-negotiate, by rule, until after 2013
February 8th, 2013 at 2:31 PM
As opposed to 7.5mill allocated to players who will see the field and actually contribute to a SB run
February 8th, 2013 at 2:32 PM
Patak’s
Wow. Thanks for the rec. I’ll have to check it out on one of the few Saturdays they’re open.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:32 PM
and the number of teams in the qb market is relatively low
please. Smith employs an agent who wants him to get a new contract. So there only needs to be 1 team, and the agent will do the bulk of the work on San Francisco’s behalf.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:33 PM
As opposed to 7.5mill allocated to players who will see the field and actually contribute to a SB run
you’ve clearly missed the point that they are definitely trading him. So they’ll have that $$. But he doesn’t have any leverage of his own. He goes where they say, for what the team who trades for him pays.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:34 PM
Wallace would fit with bears who have field stretcher
February 8th, 2013 at 2:34 PM
Get there early. The line is always pretty long by 10:00. I wish they stayed open 30 min longer than they do. It’s almost impossible for me to get there by 6:30. Great, great place though. All of their meats are done in-house. It’s essentially on a farm. On the one Saturday they’re open you can see restauranteurs driving in from Tenn/NC and the like to stock up on product for that week.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:35 PM
Huskerdawg, ill have to copy and paste my urban comment for future posts
February 8th, 2013 at 2:36 PM
Two would be a big help.
Can we please identify the potential suitors?
KC (top pick of 2nd round)?
Jags 2nd rounder?
CLE?
Buff
NYJ?
Min
February 8th, 2013 at 2:38 PM
When I said SF has little leverage, I didn’t mean compared to Smith. I know Smith has none. I mean compared to the potential suitors for Smith. It makes no sense for SF to keep Smith, so why would teams make big offers knowing he’d eventually be cut?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:39 PM
Because another team is willing to do so.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:40 PM
What the heck are the Niners going to get for Smith? More picks? We already have 14 (I think) and our top 2 picks from last season barely played. I’d hold our for something cool like a Ferrari.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:41 PM
It makes no sense for SF to keep Smith,
they will need a backup QB. So it makes sense for them to keep their current backup QB.
so why would teams make big offers knowing he’d eventually be cut?
why would they cut a quality backup when they can clearly afford to keep him?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
Stock up on picks and you’re able to package them to move up and get better players you really like…they’re sitting pretty
February 8th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
What the heck are the Niners going to get for Smith? More picks?
more picks. Then they package up a bunch of those picks and trade up in the first to get the safety from Texas.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
I cannot in any way, shape or form see Alex Smith playing in New York. He would never survive the media heat.
KC just looks like the best place. Gets to play under Reid and out of the intense media spotlight.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:43 PM
That has not been established
This makes no sense. Yes, they can afford him, but are you suggesting that cap space wouldn’t be better spent on guys who will play?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:44 PM
I think he’s made it clear he wants out, and I think the Niners respect him enough for all the crap he’s been through to move him where he’ll have a chance to play.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
i am realizing now why so many people say you aren’t worth talking to.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
Can’t we already do that? I kinda liked having Smith as a backup this year.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
lol
February 8th, 2013 at 2:46 PM
Think I have two new heroes. Go get ‘em, champs.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:46 PM
It’s a serious question. Why have a 7.5mill backup instead of spending it elsewhere?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:47 PM
Having a backup that you can bring into a game who has proven capable to leading your team to the cusp of the Super Bowl is incredibly valuable. Especially when you have a QB who runs and could be susceptible to injury.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:47 PM
And it’s been seriously answered about 3 times already.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:48 PM
Aside from people pointing out Kaep’s low salary, which is immaterial, I see no logical reason
February 8th, 2013 at 2:48 PM
To insure the most important position in football.
What would you rather invest $7.5 million in? A backup QB or a fucking safety?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:49 PM
I’m thinking they did too which is why they’ll be able to demand plenty in return from another team
February 8th, 2013 at 2:50 PM
Given the history of Niners backup QBs going to other teams, this has to be a trade with the Chiefs? Montana, Bono, Grbac, Smith…it’s just perfect.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:50 PM
With the 7.5 I’d rather acquire a different backup qb and a few other contributors
February 8th, 2013 at 2:51 PM
I didn’t say it had…you asked why it would happen. That’s the reason.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:51 PM
i am almost to the point with schaub that smith doesnt sound so bad.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:53 PM
That seems like it would be a lateral move.
February 8th, 2013 at 2:54 PM
Is the safety a top-10 NFL safety who would, say, not get torched by Jacoby Jones?
February 8th, 2013 at 2:57 PM
Matt Flynn would lead the Texans to glory, although Seattle’s probably in the same boat as SF if they’re happy with his work as the backup since Wilson’s making even less than Kaepernick
February 8th, 2013 at 2:59 PM
Matt Flynn for Terrelle Pryor…each would then be a backup to a QB that runs a similar system.
McKenzie gets another former Packer…seems win/win to me.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:00 PM
Coverage break down does not equal torched, but Goldson is probably getting that type of money and is an All-Pro. So yes, I would rather have that invested in a solid backup QB.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:00 PM
Trade him. The advantage of a good, underpaid starting qb should be a comparative advantage along the rest of the roster, not an excuse to overpay a backup
February 8th, 2013 at 3:02 PM
I heard chatter that Palmer might get cut, that a real possibility? Not sure how many years he’s got left
February 8th, 2013 at 3:04 PM
I know I’ve read that the Raiders are considering Terrelle Pryor a contender for their starting job. He must look much better in practice.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:06 PM
Pats are fucked.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:07 PM
I know he is below average, but why would they do this? Unless they feel Pryor is a starter i guess. Poor Reggie inheriting these two QBs instead to the draft picks used to acquire them.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:12 PM
Since JaCarcass wants to make a comeback, he should be forced to play for the Raiders since he stole their $32 million.
Although I am seriously looking forward to a Jets camp featuring Sanchise, Jesus Jr. and the Walking Dead Weight.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:14 PM
I have a feeling that Flacco’s contract will be over $20/year. It just seems like the type of situation that is a perfect storm for a contract that shocks everybody.
Only if they come up with something very creative. Newsome too good at his job to mortgage the future with something way overpriced.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:15 PM
He gets paid a lot of money, but he restructured. I’m not sure they can cut him easily.
February 8th, 2013 at 3:19 PM
Since JaCarcass wants to make a comeback, he should be forced to play for the Raiders since he stole their $32 million.
Well, he got cut so he’s free to do whatever he wants. And the Raiders won some money back in a lawsuit, didn’t they? Good for him actually getting money from the Raiders, god knows nobody else has
February 8th, 2013 at 3:43 PM
God that would be awesome.
Hey hey hey Rahim Moore wasn’t even part of this conversation.
/sharpens knife, stabs self in thigh
February 8th, 2013 at 5:05 PM
Add Dashon Goldson to safety list.