A Tale of Two Super Bowl Quarterbacks: Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco and the Changing Fortunes of Their Sack Rate
Quarterback sacks, and the story that they tell, plays a role in this year’s Super Bowl participants. That role is decidedly different for each of the two teams. One made a bold switch at the quarterback position. The other has a quarterback coming of age and maturing in an area where many of his contemporaries have not, while making a bold switch at offensive coordinator.
A couple of years ago, I wrote about teams changing quarterbacks during a season and what rate stats stay most and least consistent. (I also looked at quarterbacks changing teams). The summary is this: the two most consistent statistical traits for quarterbacks are their sack rate and completion percentage. The rate at which a quarterback takes sacks is the most consistent thing when a passer changes teams. It is the least consistent when a team changes quarterbacks. Contrary to common wisdom, interceptions are far more random than many want to believe, while avoiding sacks is a skill that tends to persist for a quarterback.
Let’s turn first to the San Francisco 49ers. When you look at the quarterback switch made by Jim Harbaugh, it reinforces those elements. Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick had the exact same number of pass attempts, and put up somewhat similar overall results, though how they got their differed. Kaepernick had the superior YPA, though both were above 8.0 and much better than the league average. Smith had the much better completion percentage, and threw a higher percentage of touchdown passes. Both were good at avoiding interceptions, though Kaepernick was better.
When it comes to sacks, though, Kaepernick was a clear improvement, and it touches on the one criticism I had of Alex Smith the last two years. He was too cautious at times and held the ball too long. No game was that a bigger issue than last year’s Harbaugh Bowl, when Alex Smith was sacked 9 times, and San Francisco managed only 12 first downs and 6 points on Thanksgiving.
Alex Smith was taken a sack on 9.9% of his drop backs this year, after a sack 9.0% of the time last year. Colin Kaepernick is not Dan Marino or Peyton Manning; he is still taking a sack on 6.8% of passes, a number just below the league average but a big improvement over Smith. Of course, rush attempts are often sacks avoided, and the same is true of Kaepernick. Some of his rushes come on designed or option keepers, but a fair number of his yards have come from scrambles. Once we account for that in Kaepernick’s case, he is above average at avoiding sacks and making plays with either his arm or his legs.
Now, to Baltimore and Joe Flacco. Thirty-five quarterbacks, including Flacco, threw at least 800 passes in their first three years in the league, and had a below average sack rate. We see with the research on sack rate that it tends to belong to quarterback, and also tends to be a trait that carries forward. There are, of course, exceptions where quarterbacks can improve. Joe Flacco is one of only four quarterbacks to take sacks at an above average rate during the first three years, then be better than league average in both years four and five.
Flacco joins pretty good company in being an exception that has improved his sack rate. The other four are Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Jake Plummer, and Jeff George. Aikman saw the Cowboys line improve and also became better at getting rid of the ball; he was above average for the rest of his career. Moon also became adept at getting the ball out of his hands and the shift held for the rest of his career. Plummer had a ridiculous number of sacks as a rookie, relying on his legs to escape trouble. By year three, he had turned it around, and the improvement in avoiding sacks remained. Jeff George is the only one of the group that regressed back after showing some improvement in years four and five. He also had the worst sack rate of that group in the first three years.
I have been critical of Joe Flacco in the past because of his propensity to hold the ball too long and take sacks. It was the one issue that I felt was holding him back from being mentioned in a higher class of quarterbacks. In 2011, he improved in that area, even as other measures declined. However, it looked like that was an anomaly, and he regressed in his sacks this year. Through 13 starts, Joe Flacco was taking sacks on 8% of his drop backs, a rate slightly worse than his first three years.
Then Cam Cameron was fired, and Jim Caldwell was promoted.
Lost among the impact of that change is how much Flacco has improved at avoiding sacks, as the Ravens are running the ball at a higher frequency, and he is getting rid of the ball. His completion percentage is actually down (a problem with focusing solely on completion percentage or over-counting it in passer rating), but it has come by throwing downfield, averaging 8.2 YPA, throwing 12 touchdowns to 1 interception, and taking a sack on only 4% of his drops.
He’s basically gone from regressing toward a younger Joe Flacco to becoming Drew Brees when it comes to getting the ball out. While you will hear the quarterback legacies debated and the eliteness garbage, Joe Flacco has already begun to emerge. We will see whether the move to fire Cameron carries over, but Flacco has changed his stripes.
It is the best of times in New Orleans for the 49ers and Ravens, and a hidden reason is what sack data tells us, and how each team has improved by different means.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images]

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58 Responses to “A Tale of Two Super Bowl Quarterbacks: Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco and the Changing Fortunes of Their Sack Rate”
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January 30th, 2013 at 2:09 PM
i’ll probably take ravens and over whatever it is
January 30th, 2013 at 2:13 PM
This is great stuff.
Always was the biggest hindrance to the Niners offense was Smith’s propensity to take the sack. Unless option 1 or 2 was schemed open, he’d hold the ball, tuck it (into his left hand) and either run or stare down the pass rush. This killed them vs. NYG in the NFC Championship game last year.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:13 PM
good post, Lisk. does Cameron get a Super Bowl ring if the Ravens win?
January 30th, 2013 at 2:14 PM
Shit I can’t believe I typed that. Probably how Marshall Henderson forms sentences.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:14 PM
Shit I can’t believe I typed that. Probably how Marshall Henderson forms sentences.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:16 PM
Vez- it’s looking like it’s between 47 and 48 right now depending on where you look with the Ravens being 3.5 point dogs.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:18 PM
Always was the biggest hindrance to the Niners offense was
Shit I can’t believe I typed that. Probably how Marshall Henderson forms sentences.
Always was the biggest hindrance to the Niners offense was
Shit I can’t believe I typed that. Probably how Marshall Henderson forms sentences.
Very Henderson-esque. Just keep jacking up comments, a few are bound to fall.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
Take the under.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:20 PM
When did Flacco start shaving the middle of his unibrow?
January 30th, 2013 at 2:21 PM
OT: TMZ reporting that Ron Jeremy rushed to the hospital with a potential brain aneurysm.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:22 PM
Jim Caldwell read this post, and his expression amazingly did not change one iota.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
Did they word it as “something leaking from his head”? Because that might not be a brain aneurysm when it comes to Ron Jeremy.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
Until he got married, Tom Brady’s sack rate was almost 100%
January 30th, 2013 at 2:23 PM
Take the under.
1st half under (24 when I looked this morning) also would seem a pretty solid play.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:25 PM
I’m taking the Colts in this one.
/ EIC’d
// Still waiting for England to win Euro 2012
January 30th, 2013 at 2:28 PM
Did they word it as “something leaking from his head”? Because that might not be a brain aneurysm when it comes to Ron Jeremy.
/laughs
//vomits
January 30th, 2013 at 2:29 PM
thanks jim. so ravens and the over
January 30th, 2013 at 2:31 PM
Joe Flacco is the best ever.
/Queefer’d
January 30th, 2013 at 2:35 PM
Both more accomplished than Hillbilly.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:36 PM
Just read Klosterman’s grantland piece on Royce White. White is such a pretentious douchebag.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:37 PM
Next from Lisk: Colin Kaepernick had a 98 rating his 25 y/o season, Montana had an 88. Kaepernick >>> Montana.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:37 PM
Those sound like solid bets. I would need Lisk to back me up, but it seems that historically the Super Bowl has hit the over more than the under. However, the trend seems to reversing itself over the last few years.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:38 PM
I like how Baltimore seems to run more of the ol’ Al Davis bombs away offense than you usually see in football anymore (or at least that Champ Bailey’s seen in a while)…does any team in the league take more deep shots downfield than them?
January 30th, 2013 at 2:39 PM
maybe some props. i know i can’t keep myself from over 2.5 yards rushing for flacco
January 30th, 2013 at 2:39 PM
I refuse to read Klosterman, but I’m surprised people are just realizing this. None of the shit he’s said ever made sense.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:40 PM
I like how Baltimore seems to run more of the ol’ Al Davis bombs away offense than you usually see in football anymore (or at least that Champ Bailey’s seen in a while)…does any team in the league take more deep shots downfield than them?
part of why i will go over
January 30th, 2013 at 2:40 PM
Every single word you wrote is the reason why Vegas builds big hotels all the time.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
I refuse to read Klosterman
Sounds like jealousy to me.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
I love how much you hate White. You said you have anxiety issues as well, right? If so, I could understand how you hate him (not that I understand things like that as I have no experience with them, but still).
January 30th, 2013 at 2:42 PM
I too, am confident that the sports books setting the lines are unaware of this trend with the Ravens offense.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:43 PM
The difference being he doesn’t act like a prima donna about it all and use the press to put out idiotic statements about why he doesn’t want to work for his paycheck.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:44 PM
wwos, go back to bed
January 30th, 2013 at 2:44 PM
I was wondering how a comment about offensive strategy could tie back into your gambling, thanks
January 30th, 2013 at 2:44 PM
butters, please refresh us on what we can and cannot respond to
January 30th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
I honestly don’t know enough about him to be jealous. I heard him on a podcast once, and tried to read an article once, and I couldn’t get more than a half page in. To me, sportswriting needs to be informative, and CK makes the story about him, or his agenda. Just like some authors here have a tendency to do.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:45 PM
That’s why I don’t gamble on sports; I have no idea what I’m doing.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:46 PM
WWoS, I read it because i wanted to see what bullshit excuses White was throwing out this time. chuck did a good job capturing the interview and giving an unbiased story on White. Maybe Royce White should be on a better drug than Prozac. White was also a pot smoker as a teenager and that’s when his problems began (not saying all pot smokers get anxiety and psychological issues). The Rockets have agreed to help him in transportation matters for certain games but it seems that White wants them to bow at his feet and do everything he and his doctor say. He’s just using his mental illness as an excuse. Many people, including myself, deal with mental illnesses. I take my medication, follow my doctor’s instructions, and get on with my life. Maybe he should shut up and not play basketball. If he really wanted to play, he’d change things in his life to improve his situation
January 30th, 2013 at 2:46 PM
Updated masters odds
Some value here
DUSTIN JOHNSON 25-1
JASON DUFNER 30-1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 25-1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 30-1
NICK WATNEY 30-1
GRAEME McDOWELL 60-1
January 30th, 2013 at 2:47 PM
I honestly don’t know enough about him to be jealous. I heard him on a podcast once, and tried to read an article once, and I couldn’t get more than a half page in. To me, sportswriting needs to be informative, and CK makes the story about him, or his agenda. Just like some authors here have a tendency to do.
Sounds like you were approaching Klosterman for the wrong reasons. His approach is always about him and how he views the subject matter as part of a larger pop cultural attitude, dare I say a zeitgeist, that is present in society. If you go to him for pure information then you’re doing it wrong. He’s a commentator, not a reporter.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:47 PM
jim, don’t be self deprecating. takes away the thrill of the condescending comments round here
January 30th, 2013 at 2:48 PM
yes. and what WWoS said. Do everything you can to improve your situation first before demanding someone else do it for you. Thousands of people with mental issues get up every day and do their damn job without bitching about it.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:49 PM
I don’t actually hate Royce White. I feel for him. I just hate his attitude, approach, and total condescension for anyone who doesn’t do what he wants.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:49 PM
WWoS, I read it because i wanted to see what bullshit excuses White was throwing out this time. chuck did a good job capturing the interview and giving an unbiased story on White. Maybe Royce White should be on a better drug than Prozac. White was also a pot smoker as a teenager and that’s when his problems began (not saying all pot smokers get anxiety and psychological issues). The Rockets have agreed to help him in transportation matters for certain games but it seems that White wants them to bow at his feet and do everything he and his doctor say. He’s just using his mental illness as an excuse. Many people, including myself, deal with mental illnesses. I take my medication, follow my doctor’s instructions, and get on with my life. Maybe he should shut up and not play basketball. If he really wanted to play, he’d change things in his life to improve his situation
reminds me that someone was passing around a screed on facebook the other day connecting these drugs with mass killings
January 30th, 2013 at 2:50 PM
Anxiety issues? Why? Who’s holding?
January 30th, 2013 at 2:50 PM
So I guess Ron Jeremy was the correct answer to yesterdays question of most used up pornstar.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:51 PM
Moving out of upstate New York would also help.
/ Just kidding
// Still ashamed of myself
January 30th, 2013 at 2:51 PM
that was funny
January 30th, 2013 at 2:52 PM
white guys..gross…
/htownhacker’d
January 30th, 2013 at 2:52 PM
/ Even more ashamed of myself for being the commenter who chose Jeremy
January 30th, 2013 at 2:52 PM
So I guess Ron Jeremy was the correct answer to yesterdays question of most used up pornstar.
/rimshot
January 30th, 2013 at 2:52 PM
44 & 45, hilarious.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:54 PM
THEY CREATED THE REAVERS!!!!!!!!!!!
January 30th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
I hope Royce White is a multiple All-Star.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:56 PM
Daryle Lamonica, all-time underappreciated.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:57 PM
There’s never a good reason to bitch about your problems to the media, or on Facebook.
January 30th, 2013 at 2:59 PM
/ Too much?
January 30th, 2013 at 3:03 PM
I’ll allow it, Nada
January 30th, 2013 at 3:30 PM
Indy and SF throw to the deep third a lot, but Flacco seems to throw the most sideline go routes