College Football Has Not Peaked, It Needs to Develop Fully And Cater to Fans
College football’s major conferences have seen television revenue surge. This rise, though, has corresponded with declines, in both attendance and ratings. Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports wonders whether this is fatigue with the over-expansion and monetization of the sport. He asks whether college football has peaked and cautions against further change.
We disagree with this assessment. College football has not peaked. It has not reached its full maturity. Far from changing too much in the modern media climate, the sport’s hidebound culture has hindered it from adapting enough.
Football is a better television product. It can be terrible live in stadium. Tickets are expensive. Field views are imperfect. Fans spend four hours watching mostly suspended animation. It can be a battle against boredom, dehydration and the elements. Large HD flat-screens are affordable. More games are shown. More devices can show them. Television is where the money is and where the future fans will be. No lament will alter this balance. If college football is flagging on television, that should not surprise. The sport has not optimized itself for it.
The NFL was built through decades of stability, concerted effort and sound business strategy. College football stumbled ass backward into becoming a multi-billion dollar industry. It rose to its present heights because ESPN, Nike and other corporations recognized untapped potential in the 1990s and wrote progressively larger checks. The sport’s convoluted, decentralized power structure does not encourage growth. Often, it actively undermines it.
Look at the playoff. It took 15 years of BCS controversy and strife, countless arguments and months of negotiation to add one game to the postseason. One game! Nearly everyone felt this game was an improvement. The benefits were obvious: it will more than triple the sport’s postseason revenue. Even then, the change was bitter and glacial.
Conference commissioners, moreover, have seen the future. They realize an eight-team playoff would be fairer, more rational and more popular. They recognize it would more than double the expanded postseason revenue from the four-team playoff. Their response to this vision: throwing in as many roadblocks to implementing it as possible.
Schools could have created their own postseason system that would have been sensible, compelling and earned them all the money. Instead, they farmed it out again distributing hundreds of millions to demonstrably corrupt bowl committees. Did Jim Delany fight for home playoff games that would have given Big Ten teams a better chance to win? No, he fought to keep the Rose Bowl relevant.
The postseason is not as good of a product as it could be. The same is true of the regular season. Conferences have billions riding on having enticing football television inventory, yet exert no control over non-conference scheduling. It is left to athletic directors and coaches. Not surprisingly, schedules benefit athletic directors and coaches.
Home games generate the most revenue and are easier to win. Consequently, big teams play almost every non-conference game at home. Bowl games let coaches and ADs claim progress and collect bonuses. Schedules make sure reaching a bowl game is as painless as possible. Resulting September slates are brutal, spilling over with fait accompli non-conference games. If ESPN did not engineer lucrative neutral site games and the SEC did not schedule a few early conference games, the first month of the season would feature almost no prime television inventory.
Regular season schedules are weaker than they could be. Even individual Saturdays are poorly planned. Conferences compete with one another. Each backloads its schedule for late afternoon and night games. The result is an insipid collection of noon games and the top four conferences each playing a prime game at the same time Saturday night. The games undercut each other. It’s no shock ratings are down.
Critics warn that college football may become too much like the NFL – being competitive, popular and ridiculously profitable is a bad thing, apparently – but it is this despised NFL that could provide a template for college football to enhance itself on television.
Rationing prime content is pivotal. ESPN pays $1.9 billion per season for Monday Night Football. That game has a concentrated audience. It does great cable ratings. That one game earns more than double the television rights fees paid to the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the Pac 12 combined for an entire season. College football is missing an opportunity.
The sport is still in the warlord stage of political development. Pretend the big four conferences become partners instead of competitors. Those conferences merge their first-tier football rights during the next round of negotiations. They sell packages on the open market. They offer a Friday Night game, a Saturday Night game and two double afternoon packages on Saturday. The prime games are spread out between those packages.
Could networks afford not to get into the bidding? How much would FOX pay to have the best college football game of the week on Saturday night for an entire season with minimal competition? Maybe not $1.9 billion, but the packages combined should generate far more than each conference currently makes selling competing first-tier rights.
Moreover, if selling quality football games becomes the primary collective interest, it would improve the regular season. Big teams easing into September drags down everyone. This would lead to more inter-conference scheduling agreements and more big games during the regular season. That would help with attendance.
Tangible measures of college football’s popularity appear to be flatlining despite the increased revenue. That’s not a sign the sport has become too much of a business. It’s a sign the sport has not become enough of one. Corruption, muddled vision and decentralized power prevent the sport too often from acting in its own self-interest. College football caters to too many entrenched interest groups ahead of its fans. If that does not change, fans with far more entertainment avenues will start turning away.
[Photos via USA Today Sports]

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60 Responses to “College Football Has Not Peaked, It Needs to Develop Fully And Cater to Fans”
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January 23rd, 2013 at 1:13 PM
The Royal “we”?
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:16 PM
I hear you but I don’t think the B10 and SEC would be willing. I think they only way this works is if we eliminate conferences as they are presently constituted and move to 4 or 5 football-only divisions (which isn’t likely to happen). Otherwise, I think we’re stuck with the status quo.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:17 PM
BCS on Fox was a disaster.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:18 PM
the current fox studio show of EA, Harrington, and Eddie is awful
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:20 PM
Soused?
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:21 PM
Those conferences merge their first-tier football rights during the next round of negotiations.
Interesting article. I do, though have one question?
You’re saying that college football should work like the NFL and show essentially 4 games per week? You failed to address the fact that CFB has more than 3X the number of teams. I’ll even back off that and say, given the idea that there are 4 bigs with 16 teams each, you’re still double the number of teams. Pay-per-view? Saturday ticket? Maybe.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:22 PM
Less college football with Gus Johnson the better.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:22 PM
CRM doesn’t shut up about this via the Twitter.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:25 PM
This reminds me of the Phil Hartman SNL sketch where he is Clinton on a jog and stops in at the McDonalds. He starts eating everyone’s McMuffin to demonstrate how food in Somalia is captured by warlords.
/pours one out for Phil
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:27 PM
With as much play as DeAnthony Thomas gets on this site, you’d think he played for Michigan or ND.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:29 PM
Intercepted by warlords!
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:29 PM
We disagree with this assessment
The Royal “we”?
Let the mouse in your pocket speak for himself, Duffy.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:30 PM
This should get interesting once the CFB-heads get here
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:30 PM
5 Reasons Why Ohio State Is Alabama’s Biggest Threat in 2013
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:31 PM
Bruce Feldman reporting that NCAA has uncovered improper conduct by its own investigators. This should get interesting.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:33 PM
College football doesn’t have a self-interest. Colleges with football teams at the BCS-AQ level have a self-interest.
Also, lots of your fixes would be challenged, perhaps succesfully, as anti-competitive behavior.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:34 PM
This should get interesting once the CFB-heads get here
The post was very rambly.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:37 PM
“I disagree” – marching bands
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:37 PM
This sounds like an argument for a Nash equilibrium or something. Recall the scene in A Beautiful Mind in the bar, though that was a gross simplification of a Nash equilibrium.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:37 PM
Was that not Darrell Hammond? Serious question, I only vaguely remember it.
tl;dr
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:38 PM
Oh Piggly.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:38 PM
GTFO
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:38 PM
Feldman saying in essence that investigators got the information on Miami and Shapiro through bankruptcy case it should never have been able to use or have even gotten. Shapiro’s lawyer was on NCAA payroll also.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:39 PM
Was that not Darrell Hammond? Serious question, I only vaguely remember it.
Hammond took over after Andy Dick gave Hartman’s wife drugs.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:39 PM
Came across as “Here’s why CFB needs to be a clone of NFL”, but very wordy.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:40 PM
Cameras weren’t much better on ESPN this year. Missed the beginning of way too many plays.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:40 PM
A big problem, for whatever reason, is that CFB appeal is still “localized”. In the Northeast, most of the media look down at college (even though their pro-teams are fed via it), I suspect because it’s big in the south and they’re too “elite” to be concerned with it, even with ESPN in Bristol. Also having poor local product (Big East, etc) does not help the case. I suspect this will change with the increased TV exposure.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:41 PM
Lovitz called him out on that right?
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:42 PM
Hartman was long gone from SNL before any of that.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:43 PM
Didn’t just just call him out. Beat his ass.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:43 PM
I’m not sure which part I’m supposed to be getting the fuck out about, but excuse me for not remembering SNL sketches from 20 years ago when I was like 6
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:45 PM
Lovitz yeah. There was someone else too who was really vocal about this.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:45 PM
Darell Hammond did a pretty good Clinton, but I’m more fond with his Al Gore back when him and Farrell’s Dubya went at it during the 2000 election.
/lockbox
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:46 PM
I do, though have one question?
solid work
/signed, a connosieur
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:48 PM
The result is an insipid collection of noon games and the top four conferences each playing a prime game at the same time Saturday night.
This is a solid point. Noon games are pretty much unwatchable now.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:48 PM
College footall without tradition is nothing more than minor league football. That’s the track they’re heading for right now, which is why you see declining numbers in the stands. It’s a boring sport, unless you have a allegiance to a certain team, that acts more as background music than anything else.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:49 PM
I recall David Spade calling out Andy Dick, too.
/David Spade was on SNL in the 90s for you yougnsters
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:50 PM
It’s always the bottom half of the big 10…and those teams blow goats.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:52 PM
/David Spade was on SNL in the 90s for you yougnsters
I laughed. Remember when Comedy Central used to have old SNL reruns on every afternoon? Good times.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:52 PM
“Let me tell you something – there’s gonna be a lot of things we don’t tell Mrs. Clinton about. Fast food is the least of our worries”
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:52 PM
Didn’t just just call him out. Beat his ass.
the critic muscling up. celebrity deathmatch should have done a recreation
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:52 PM
This is a solid point. Noon games are pretty much unwatchable now.
It’s always the bottom half of the big 10…and those teams blow goats.
That isn’t a new thing. It has been like that for years.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:52 PM
Northwestern is usually good for 3-4 nailbiters in the early slot…although with the improvement that program’s shown they might be playing themselves into some 2:30 slots
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:53 PM
And Kids in the Hall at noon back in college…the best
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:55 PM
Then they changed it to MadTV. That was one of my earliest moments of giving up on human life in my young existence.
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:56 PM
Spoken like someone who’s never had his soul touched by Kenny Rogers’ Jackass
January 23rd, 2013 at 1:57 PM
My experience with college football growing up and living in the Northeast:
1.) You care if you are an alum or have an allegiance to a certain school/team. (Yes, you ND fans that are fans of the program because your last name happens to begin with “O’”, that means you).
2.) You like to gamble.
Other than that, many casual sports fans I know couldn’t care less about college football and do view it, as Darrell points out, as minor league football.
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:01 PM
Something needs to be done about the number of games against FCS teams.
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:06 PM
My experience with college football growing up and living in the Northeast:
1.) You care if you are an alum or have an allegiance to a certain school/team. (Yes, you ND fans that are fans of the program because your last name happens to begin with “O’”, that means you).
2.) You like to gamble.
Other than that, many casual sports fans I know couldn’t care less about college football and do view it, as Darrell points out, as minor league football.
since my alma maters are u of idaho and NIU, #2 is what fuels my fire
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Wasn’t I the first here to suggest a 64 team, four conference setup for football? I still think we’re headed there. 3 playoff games, and be done with it.
/I was
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:16 PM
That scene also had Nealon, Meadows, Farley… so so good. We say “warlords” when traveling and see a McDonalds.
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:21 PM
And Nike/Under Armour combined with NCAA greed are doing their best to kill what little tradition remains.
/ New uniforms every game!
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:22 PM
Hey, NIU runs with the big dogs now!
/ Well, ran briefly, until one of the big dogs pissed on it in the Orange Bowl
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:23 PM
/I was
Maybe it was you. But I continue to lobby for the expulsion of the term “at-large team” from all playoff discussion. Dumbest concept ever.
January 23rd, 2013 at 2:28 PM
This is far and away the most salient point in this discussion.
January 23rd, 2013 at 3:28 PM
January 23rd, 2013 at 4:13 PM
What you mean is “something should be done about teams moving to FBS when they clearly belong in FCS”.
January 24th, 2013 at 8:43 AM
+1 to both. No reason for Alabama to schedule 3 FCS teams. We get an 8-team playoff, no scheduling FCS teams and marquee games every couple of years (alabama against, say, USC) and you’re good to go. Oh and getting rid of idiots like Jim Delaney.
January 24th, 2013 at 8:44 AM
And I concur with many posters, College football is just the minor leagues.
January 24th, 2013 at 3:09 PM
This is my first time to leave reply. I do not want to have to scroll to the bottom of all comments to leave a comment. I will stop visiting this site if this feature is not changed. Ty Duffy is a fool who claimed that ESPN made college football popular and successful. The recent national championship was the tenth highest rated BCS game because most Americans don’t have ESPN in their home. Bowl ratings have declined in each of the last two years because 32 of 35 bowls are on ESPN and most people can’t watch them. Placing playoffs on ESPN was imbecilic. Many persons will not watch a sport for months if they are not allowed to watch post-season. Ty Duffy doltishly did not perceive that NFL will not allow his beloved ESPN to show playoffs because it knows that ratings would plummet.