The Atlanta Falcons Are the Biggest Home Underdog in a Championship Game Since 1978
The Atlanta-San Francisco game already opened with the 49ers favored by 3 points, but heavy early money on San Francisco has driven the line to 4.5 points. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, that move now has Atlanta as the largest home underdog by any #1 seed since 1978, and the largest home underdog for any team in a championship game since 1978.
Home underdogs in the playoffs have a history of success (21-14 straight up, 22-13 against the spread), but that is mostly true in the wildcard and divisional round. In the 12 prior championship games where the home team was an underdog, the visitor won (and covered) 7 of 12 times.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images, data via pro-football-reference.com]
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90 Responses to “The Atlanta Falcons Are the Biggest Home Underdog in a Championship Game Since 1978”
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January 15th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
Haters continue to hate.
January 15th, 2013 at 2:55 PM
that Giants-Vikings game wasn’t even as close as the score indicated.
January 15th, 2013 at 2:59 PM
Falcons gonna shock the world. If not, I won’t watch one second of SB coverage before the game.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:00 PM
Wow, wouldn’t have thought the Steelers were home dogs to the Pats in 05
January 15th, 2013 at 3:02 PM
Most of Atlanta’s home games this year have been very close… they seem to be one of these “play to the level of your opponent” teams. Likewise – it’s tough to pinpoint how well SF plays on the road – their record is erratic. But in 2 “dome away” games they lost to the Rams and beat the Saints by 10. I’m thinking this game will be very similar to the Falcons/Seahawks game – down to the wire.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:02 PM
You probably shouldn’t watch SB coverage before the game anyway. Just awful.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:02 PM
49ers/Pats please…NFL royalty instead of some janky ass, purple wearin, atlanta’n'baltimore livin’ queermos.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:03 PM
Vikings got their ass beat. That was the beginning of the end of moss era in Minnesota.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:04 PM
Mike Smith looks like one of Dr. Moreau’s creatures in that picture.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:05 PM
/whimsically shoves dildii into strippers
January 15th, 2013 at 3:06 PM
Come on, now. We got 2 Chainz, Ludacris, Young Jeezy, and T.I. on our side. We are unstoppable. What can San Francisco counter with?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:07 PM
I dont, I think 49ers win by two touchdowns.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:08 PM
Not at all surprising. ATL is viewed as fraudy and has been all year. SF is coming off of a total beatdown of the best QB in the league and ATL tried to choke a game away in which they were cruising. I get it. ATL fans will bitch and moan, but it makes sense. SF is fucking nasty. They have the best defense in the league and a hot QB. I do think the line is inflated a bit though. I think I’d have it around 1.5 or 2 for SF, not the 4.5 I saw earlier today.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:08 PM
Like ATL value +4.5
January 15th, 2013 at 3:08 PM
the grateful dead, assless chaps, rainbow flags, liberals, priuses, gourmet cupcake stores, cramped living, haha oakland and lotsa pot.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:09 PM
So almost 50/50?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:09 PM
Lines always get inflated toward favorites in playoffs
January 15th, 2013 at 3:11 PM
What he said.
Dude? WTF? DOn’t mention that shit and leave off Outkast.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:11 PM
Jesus, the Cowboys were in almost every NFC Championship game for about 18 straight years.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:12 PM
Spencer just lumped the cities of Atlanta and Baltimore together in a negative light. That’s bullshit.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:13 PM
I used to watch ESPN before the Super Bowl, when they had the NFL Films Super Bowl highlights marathon.
/not anymore
//sad
January 15th, 2013 at 3:14 PM
Cow palace
January 15th, 2013 at 3:14 PM
Not at all surprising. ATL is viewed as fraudy and has been all year. SF is coming off of a total beatdown of the best QB in the league and ATL tried to choke a game away in which they were cruising. I get it. ATL fans will bitch and moan, but it makes sense. SF is fucking nasty. They have the best defense in the league and a hot QB. I do think the line is inflated a bit though. I think I’d have it around 1.5 or 2 for SF, not the 4.5 I saw earlier today.
The SRS from regular season, with home field advantage added for Atlanta, is at SF 0.8 points better. it might go up a bit after playoff games. I guess it depends on how much better you think SF is with Kaepernick in this game than Smith.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:14 PM
Dallas lost three straight NFC-CGs? I didn’t know Donovan McNabb Sr. was even a pro QB.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:16 PM
A yes, poor Danny White. Lost three straight NFC Championship games. I remember they came close to getting into field goal range after Montana to Clark.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:17 PM
My favorite superbowl pre-game show was when Ryan Seacrest asked John Krasinski who he was rooting for.
Krasinski was wearing a Patriots hat at that time.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:17 PM
Vikings play in a dome
January 15th, 2013 at 3:17 PM
bullshit? BULLSHIT? yea, youre prolly right, but i wouldnt like the falcons for all the home depot bucks walt disney’s got to his name. the falcons are like one of those generic teams in bad football movies…i half expected them to show up in any given sunday.
“hahaha…the dallas knights? who the sharks got next, the alburquerque aztecs or atlanta falcons?”
January 15th, 2013 at 3:17 PM
On came Marcus Allen, running with the night
January 15th, 2013 at 3:18 PM
When Niners in this world appear
And break the odds that they should fear
And frighten all who see or hear
The cry goes up both far and near
for Underdogs! Underdogs!
Speed of lightning, roar of thunder
Fighting all who take the under
Underdogs! Underdogs!
January 15th, 2013 at 3:18 PM
I think Smith wouldn’t lose the game for SF, but I think he also would keep it close throughout. Kaepernick (sp?) give SF the potential to blow out anyone they play even if their defense give up 20. As it looks now assuming Abraham is hobbled and a non-factor, I see it being SF 31 – 21 with SF pulling away in the mid-to-late third. Say a 17-0 or 17-13 halftime score that teases me into thinking ATL can take it only to see Ryan throw two second half picks or some shit like that. The Dome will be rocking though.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:18 PM
I will be watching this game at a sportsbook in Vegas.
Any advice?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:19 PM
Sports Gal would like a word with you.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:19 PM
I didn’t know Donovan McNabb Sr. was even a pro QB.
Danny White could have out-Romo’d any QB in league history
January 15th, 2013 at 3:19 PM
Totally agree with you. Falcons fans are just the WORST (/glares at Gods). Atlanta’s a pretty cool city though.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
jmorris’d
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
Do a shot for every Atlanta TD and you will stay stone cold sober throughout the afternoon.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
ive enjoyed it every time ive been there, but i dunno if i could deal with that traffic yo.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
That still is a sweet td run to watch
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
i hate you sometimes.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
As a Bears fan and outside observer, the Dome is a vastly underrated sports venue, IMO.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:20 PM
Thank you shoeshine boy…..you’re humble and loveable
January 15th, 2013 at 3:21 PM
I’m intelligent, so I live near downtown and work outside the perimeter. Going against traffic both ways.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:22 PM
You deal with it. Though there is traffic in any big city. Hell, Charlotte traffic has become a bitch as well. I’d rather have traffic and lots to do than the other way around.
You’ll have to excuse me. I was just thinking about how fantastic it would be to play in a Super Bowl on the Saints’ home turf. Ahhh…what a thought.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:22 PM
Garrison Hearst broke his leg very early on the last time these two faced each other in the playoffs. I expect revenge.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:22 PM
Well, Ray Murda did pick up his nickname in Atlanta, so he’s got that going for him.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:23 PM
The floors were shaking against SEA. If ATL keeps it close into the second half that place is going to be insane.
/And I turned down a ticket
January 15th, 2013 at 3:23 PM
life would be boring as fuck if everyone agreed all the time.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:24 PM
a matchup of old NFC West rivals.
back when the NFL was geographically challenged.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:25 PM
bravo.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:26 PM
True story – I have in fact done the Dirty Bird on the 50 yard line of the Georgia Dome.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:26 PM
I’m pretty sure I’ll be rooting for Atlanta. Not really sure why, but fuck the niners.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:26 PM
Chris Johsnon trying to sell his shoes on twitter for $400. Does this mean he’s getting cut?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:27 PM
Pats debacle v Niners may have something to do with it
January 15th, 2013 at 3:28 PM
Aren’t you a Pats’ fan? I wouldn’t want to play SF either if I were a Pats’ fan.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:28 PM
well, let’s wait and see if the Falcons decide to put a defender within 10 yards of Vernon Davis.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:28 PM
there’s the difference between us. i like having no traffic and nobody living in my city…makes the golf and culturey shit that much more enjoyable. but mostly the golf. golf?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:30 PM
Pats-Niners would be awesome, but much like Pats-Broncos, it will not happen.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:30 PM
Lots of golf down here.
Not looking forward to dealing with him. At all.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:31 PM
I don’t think the game would go the same way a second time around, with a solid defense, more weeks of Talib, Hernandez healthier… they did score four straight TD’s against that defense.
I think I hate the niners back from when the Pats lost Bledsoe and they had to start Zolak against SF to try to get into the playoffs.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:32 PM
You don’t think? I suspect NE was not thrilled with getting BAL even though it meant playing at home. Or are you #risingup?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:33 PM
Pats fumbles really killed them v Niners. I’d mainly worry about getting dominating at the LOS defensively
January 15th, 2013 at 3:33 PM
Baltimore scares me more than any of the other teams. If BB can’t scheme against SF a second time around, then they don’t deserve a SB. It’s the lucky three deep passes Flacco will hit Sunday that worry me.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:33 PM
yea, but yall’s courses are a) expensive, b) have tons of people on em and c) are located in an area that sees frequent water shortages. here it’s all cheap, almost always wide open and we live by one of the largest bodies of fresh water.
length of season doesnt mean anything considering i played from feb to december here. no way id be able to afford 120+ rounds per year in atlatna, def can here tho.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:34 PM
So it’s not my imagination? Well that’s good to know. Shit is so damn expensive ’round these parts.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:34 PM
Golf isn’t bad here… traffic isn’t bad (compared to Atlanta). Really nice city to live in.
/please raise property rates so I can get my re-fi
January 15th, 2013 at 3:35 PM
the Seahawks almost came back to win that game using my old Madden strategy of “throw to the tight end. if he isn’t open, scramble.”
afterwards I found out that Mike Nolan was Atlanta’s defensive coordinator. how do these guys keep getting work?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:36 PM
It’s called a private country club. Down here, you join one.
I want a hamburger. No, cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips
January 15th, 2013 at 3:37 PM
Nolan has taken the same shit players BVG had and made them somewhat dangerous all while doing it with no pass rush whatsoever. ATL needs a quality rush end in a bad way, but I just don’t see where they’re going to get one.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:37 PM
Why?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:37 PM
Money bags.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:37 PM
Only because Niners-Pats is what a lot of people want.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:38 PM
i dunno about that…im joining a club this year and will probably save 1/3 of the money i spent last year and get to play/practice 1/3 more. win-win.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:39 PM
He’s got lots of money, lots of friends, a great job, a beautiful wife, awesome house, and a genius fucking kid.
/golfercraig
January 15th, 2013 at 3:39 PM
The other 1/3 is dong pics.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:40 PM
you mean bong rips, right? this shirt’s a large, bro.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:40 PM
I don’t know if it was personnel or gameplan or a little of both, but they didn’t look very good against Seattle aside from about three plays in the first half.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:40 PM
I think you once posted a link to that course. Looked pretty fun. Joining a club was the second thing I bought myself when I finished school and got a job. The first was a pair of nice boots for any future rittyrich trivia questions.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:42 PM
Because they defy logic, I guess. On paper, I don’t think their defense is as good as reported, and their offense is predictable and should be stoppable. But the deep pass/DPI is a great equalizer.
SF is a fair fight. A tough one, but I don’t mind a fair fight. The Pats have stolen a bunch of games from Baltimore over the years, going back to 2007… at some point karma comes full circle.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:42 PM
this one? jason day won a nationwide event here. pretty tough track.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:43 PM
So you’re not #risingup, huh? Bummer.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:43 PM
God that was such a great comment.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:44 PM
Believe so. 7000 yds and 74.5 rating from the tips is perfect.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:47 PM
I’ve been a Niners fan since I was a kid. #TeamJimmy
January 15th, 2013 at 3:49 PM
dude, i cannot wait for golf season to start. im absolutely murdering the ball in practice.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:53 PM
well, didn’t the weird flukey replacement ref SNF game from earlier this season at least make up for last year’s AFC Championship?
January 15th, 2013 at 3:57 PM
In 2007 Fat fuck Rex Ryan called a timeout before Brady was stopped on a 4th and short sneak. Last year, the Ravens had the winnign TD batted from Evans hand and then rushed Cundiff out there for a hurried FG he yanked wide when they had a timeout left. Much like their failings against the COlts in the playoffs prior to this year, the Ravens pooped their pants more than having anything stolen from them.
January 15th, 2013 at 3:59 PM
That doesn’t include Derrick Mason dropping a wide open pass Reche Caldwell-style on a 4th down a few years ago. Again: pants, pooped.
January 15th, 2013 at 4:01 PM
One thing I really miss about Charlotte is my country club. Raintree. Not pricey, not stuck up and two full courses.
January 15th, 2013 at 4:02 PM
So sick of that campaign.