Comments on: Peyton Manning Career Playoff Record: 9-11, With Eight One-and-Done Postseason Trips

By: roger from oz

roger from oz — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 16:12:04 +0000

Peyton deserves some of the blame, but Denver DBs flat out sucked. High school DBs know not to give up bombs on plays like that.

By: gymbroski

gymbroski — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 02:33:43 +0000

What many people fail to realize is P. Manning has been like this his entire career. He throw for a million yards unless it is a big game with many people watching. In college 0-4 against Florida with no Heisman or National Championship. Strangely, Tennesse wins the next year. His Super Bowl win /MVP should have gone to the running back. The next Super Bowl he was in, well there was one turnover the entire game. It came late in the game when the pressure is high; so you can guess who made it. He is a career choker. If you are gambler, bet against him, especially if the world is watching.

By: vajayjay redick

vajayjay redick — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 20:35:32 +0000

No mention of Rodgers, whose only career playoff victories came in 2010. Peyton made some mistakes but made some plays too. Rodgers was terrible.

Hey he beat Joe Webb last week!

I’m not going to kill Manning for yesterday, but that OT pass was Favrian. I feel like this comeback season just cemented his legacy – all time great regular season QB, so-so playoff QB (whose only SB win was over Rex Grossman).

By: Liquor

Liquor — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 17:41:46 +0000

No mention of Rodgers, whose only career playoff victories came in 2010. Peyton made some mistakes but made some plays too. Rodgers was terrible.

By: QueeferSutherland

QueeferSutherland — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:39:23 +0000

Awesome stuff Lisk. Thanks. This has actually made me change my mind a bit on the decision.

By: VladimirCrouton

VladimirCrouton — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:37:08 +0000

Lisk. Any idea why they didn’t have an Osweiller sneak package for short yardage?

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:35:35 +0000

Good stats Lisk, thanks. Are numbers all for teams leading by a TD?

I don’t know what the numbers say, but to me, running and punting with 3:00 to play up a TD makes less sense than the same playcall with 1:30 to go.

I think I looked at all teams needing to TD to win or tie. Data is pretty thin.

By: DemBones (Illegitimi non carborundum)

DemBones (Illegitimi non carborundum) — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:35:02 +0000

Did Denver ever throw deep? Seemed to be a lot of short and intermediate stuff. Peyton was OK, not great. OT pick was bad throw and decision. Seemed like his accuracy was a bit off all day with high and low passes. DBs lost the game for them.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:34:34 +0000

Yeah, I get the argument that having Manning in that situation changes the percentages over say, Sanchez. I would have liked to know what the odds were of the Ravens going 80 yards on the road against Denver’s D with one minute to play. Or rather, how much the odds lowered vs. the same scenario and 1:45 remaining.

There is a dropoff of course. WPA at Adv NFL stats has it at 10% vs. 6% of Baltimore winning at 1:45 vs. 1:10. Of course, Manning throws, he may take a sack, he may throw short, or he may get first down.

The break even for throwing would be about 27% chance of converting first down and 40% chance of throwing incomplete (plus interception), with 33% chance of completion short of first. I like Manning’s chances even if he didn’t look good in overtime.

By: QueeferSutherland

QueeferSutherland — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:29:20 +0000

Also Lisk: understand this probably isn’t quantifiable but it was also zero degrees outside. I gotta think that affects the decision making for run/pass a bit.

By: QueeferSutherland

QueeferSutherland — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:27:47 +0000

Good stats Lisk, thanks. Are numbers all for teams leading by a TD?

I don’t know what the numbers say, but to me, running and punting with 3:00 to play up a TD makes less sense than the same playcall with 1:30 to go.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:25:31 +0000

I think Fox’s strategy was playing the percentages a decade ago. I’m not so sure anymore. I think completion percentages are so high and conversion rates good enough on both ends to swing it. Only one of the 12 times a QB had the ball in his hand in this situation did it actually hit the ground. And Christian Ponder and Mark Sanchez are on the list.

By: QueeferSutherland

QueeferSutherland — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:24:56 +0000

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:23:42 +0000

In 2012– between 1:30 and 3:00 left, facing 3rd and 5 to 10 yards

9 passes, quarterbacks went 7 of 8 for 5 first downs, 1 sack. 8-1 record
3 qb runs, 1 conversion (RG III), 3-0 record
12 running back runs, 3 first downs. 9-3 record including Broncos yesterday

By: otis sistrunk

otis sistrunk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:23:36 +0000

Then he should be slammed for not paying attention darrell. That TD toss to smith in 1Q was a clue

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:18:20 +0000

I also don’t know what to do with QB runs out of read option. I don’t think it falls in the same category with what Fox did. RG III’s 76 yard run came when up 4 on a 3rd and 6, on a read option keeper. I think that’s an area where mobile quarterbacks can be valuable, because you can run while being aggressive on 3rd down with game on line.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:15:46 +0000

Put it this way: they pass on third and 7 and it’s incomplete (or worse, a turnover) and the Ravens tie the game with time they wouldn’t have had if Denver just run there, Fox is getting killed today. He played the percentages and thought it made sense to hand Baltimore the ball down 7 with no timeouts on the road. That’s the right call.

I think the percentages are actually pretty even this year, probably in favor of passing slightly depending on personnel. Looks like so far this year, Lions lost to Colts and Buccaneers lost to Eagles after running in similar situations, Cowboys blew lead but came back to win late themselves. Patriots-Seahawks was only passing loss out of 9 attempts, when Brady missed with 2:52 left, Wilson hit Rice for deep score. Falcons and Texans both passed in similar situations against Broncos, converted, and won game.

By: VladimirCrouton

VladimirCrouton — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:14:34 +0000

I have to believe that what killed Morris on that coverage was he didn’t believe that Flacco could make that throw that deep.

Then he’s a moron. Everyone should know that Flacco has easily one of the strongest arms in the league.

By: scripty

scripty — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:14:24 +0000

I can’t even begin to explain the mancrush I have on Kaepernick. Manifest Destiny of football right now. I realize the Packers defense is shit too.

By: Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah!

Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez has the highest WAR evah! — Sun, 13 Jan 2013 16:12:59 +0000

also, this is validation for those who place some value on arm strength. I have to believe that what killed Morris on that coverage was he didn’t believe that Flacco could make that throw that deep. All props to Flacco on that one.