Peyton Manning Career Playoff Record: 9-11, With Eight One-and-Done Postseason Trips
Peyton Manning threw a pick-six, fumbled, and then threw the game-losing interception in overtime as the top-seeded Broncos lost to Baltimore, 38-35. The Ravens were 9.5-point underdogs.
Unless Tom Brady loses today, your NFL storyline this week: What is the deal with Peyton Manning in the postseason? He’s just 9-11 and eight of those losses have been of the one-and-done variety (either Wild Card or after a bye).
It’s a perplexing question with no right or wrong answer. Are we even talking about this is if Denver safety Rahim Moore doesn’t take a mind-bogglingly bad angle on that pass to Jacoby Jones with less than a minute left? Nope. We’d all be slamming the Ravens for completely forgetting Torrey Smith was on the roster in the second half after he abused Champ Bailey in the first half.
In comparing his regular season numbers to his playoff stats – sample size alert – the difference isn’t jarring, but his completion percentage, QB rating and Yards-per-attempt are all down a bit. One obvious thing to remember before looking at this chart from Pro Football reference – just because the QB is the most important position on the field, no entire win or loss is ever on one player.
Peyton Manning’s last playoff win: Jan. 24, 2010. Against the Jets. At home. I won’t bother bore you with a further breakdown of Manning’s record indoors vs. outdoors, in frigid temps, vs. Tom Brady, and so on and so on.

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45 Responses to “Peyton Manning Career Playoff Record: 9-11, With Eight One-and-Done Postseason Trips”
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January 13th, 2013 at 10:16 AM
The pick six was only because of some egregregious PI. But the second pick was a dumb throw worthy of the Gunslinger.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:17 AM
Just read Woody Paige’s column in today’s Denver Post. Lotsa commenters blaming Peyton for blowing the game. Even more are blaming Fox (conservative leadership) or Rahim “the Dream”.
Reading the Denver fans’ annual freak-out is a January tradition…like no other.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:17 AM
Did I hear yesterday that if New England wins today Brady is the winningest QB in playoff history? If so, would imagine that will be tied to this story.
Also, I really like the way you handled that chart.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:18 AM
If Flacco turns the ball over three times, gets 14 points from special teams and still loses, I’m sure the media makes the same excuses for him like they are for Manning right now.
The defense wasn’t great, but neither was Manning. If the officials don’t bail him out on the last TD and the Suggs forced fumble, you’re looking at a career worst for Manning.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:19 AM
Oh is that just an inline insert from PFR? Either way, solid.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:21 AM
Also, for all those guys killing Fox: real easy to do that after a loss. Running and punting on third down with a minute left and no timeouts for Baltimore is not a bad strategy up a TD at home.
It’s not like Baltimore lit the world on fire with their OT playcalling. TD wins the game, and they run for no gain, run for no gain, third and long pass every single series. Ravens were fortunate to get outta there with a win.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
Queefer, I wanted to see Flacco go play action more in OT, but I guess it wasn’t meant to be.
Agree with your point on Manning’s play. He had a great season. Yesterday, not so much.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:30 AM
SROD: I figured that’s what all those meaningless runs into the line were trying to set up. But they just never even tried. It worked out in the long run but if the Broncos had won that game Caldwell is getting his house burned down this morning by a mob of nutters in purple-zubaz.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:32 AM
Also, for all those guys killing Fox: real easy to do that after a loss. Running and punting on third down with a minute left and no timeouts for Baltimore is not a bad strategy up a TD at home.
Is it okay as long as we were killing him for both that and the kneel downs needing a field goal with two timeouts, before we knew the outcome?
January 13th, 2013 at 10:41 AM
What if we kill him for not throwing it on third down, when everyone saw the run coming and when his QB is a first ballot hall of famer?
What the hell point is there to having Manning if you can’t trust him to make a good throw on third and seven?
Your best predictor of victory is “do you have the ball?” and Fox went out of his way to not use possession, twice.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:42 AM
Irrationally, I was blasting him at that moment, ’cause it’s a personal pet peeve of mine. I hate coaches appearing to play for overtime. Maybe different calls aid a different outcome.
Granted, risk mitigation would dictate playing it close to the vest then. Easy for me to advocate taking that risk, since I don’t have anything to lose.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
Can someone please tell me about that awesome Denver defense?
Also got a question for Lisk.
It was either on their last drive of the 4th or in OT. But I remember it was 3rd and like a foot. Why the fuck didn’t they bring in Osweiler for a sneak? I was yelling at the TV. That’s bad coaching.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
Which is riskier, a TO at that spot in the field, or letting the other team get the ball first, with the way your defense has been playing? I feel the argument is for trying to get the FG.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
I’m more on board with killing him for the kneel downs. As a Ravens fan, I was relieved they took a knee. Any time an opponent feels relieved over an action, it’s probably the wrong call. Still, that didn’t cost them the game. The broncos has three chances to win in sudden death and couldn’t get it done.
Put it this way: they pass on third and 7 and it’s incomplete (or worse, a turnover) and the Ravens tie the game with time they wouldn’t have had if Denver just run there, Fox is getting killed today. He played the percentages and thought it made sense to hand Baltimore the ball down 7 with no timeouts on the road. That’s the right call.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:51 AM
Denver’s enormous offensive performance in the 2 overtimes further highlights how wrong Fox was in being conservative. Or maybe, Fox read his team, looked at the field position, and the performance of the Ravens defense, and decided those factors at that point in time played enough against his team that it wasn’t worth the risk. He isn’t afforded the chance to make anesthetic football choices like Madden players and bloggers.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:51 AM
I would too. That’s just me, a bit more reckless than most people.
I don’t deny the logic of forcing Balt to go the long way. Who could predict Moore misplaying that deep ball? That completion in that situation is so rare.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:52 AM
Also, we’re acting like Manning was playing great in the fourth quarter and would have marched Denver right into FG range. Manning struggled hard until a pair of questionable/terrible calls bailed him out on two failed third down conversions and Thomas scored to take the lead.
The Ravens beat the Pats earlier this season because Brady threw an incomplete pass on third down with less than two minutes remaining, giving Baltimore enough time to kick the winning FG with one second left. Had they just run and punted,they would have won. I can’t kill Fox for that strategy.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:52 AM
His knee was down.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:53 AM
You’re right Crouton. Forgot about that. Still should have been a sack.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:55 AM
As far as I’m concerned, John Fox, Manning and his dip shit WR’s lost that game. Gotta give all the props to Joe Flacco. Gamer.
January 13th, 2013 at 10:56 AM
Yep Flacco shut some people up, including me. Now will Schaub do the same today?
(No)
January 13th, 2013 at 11:01 AM
The more I see Manning and Bree’s the more I begin to believe they are both just complete chuckers, definitely more so Bree’s, but still. They thrive in regular season football but both struggle in post season. This is probably mostly due to the fact, that at least until very recently and what seems to be the new age of rules that greatly benefit passing more, the idea of just throwing yourself to a championship wasn’t a guarantee because defenses usually depict the winners.
I was waiting all day for one of Manning’s throw, which were mostly soft all day, to be stepped in front of an picked. Though the one that cost them the game was a terrible soft toss, I was surprised the Ravens weren’t playing more aggressively at corner, all Manning seemed to throw were out passes all day, begging for someone to cut off for a pick six.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:05 AM
What did the wideouts do wrong? I thought they played really well actually.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:07 AM
Also, let’s give Tucker some love. Rookie had a pro bowl season and drilled a huge pressure kick on the road in freezing temps. That was filthy.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:08 AM
Dropped passes. And I gotta mention this again. Why didn’t the Broncos have an Osweiller sneak package for short yardage?
January 13th, 2013 at 11:12 AM
also, this is validation for those who place some value on arm strength. I have to believe that what killed Morris on that coverage was he didn’t believe that Flacco could make that throw that deep. All props to Flacco on that one.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:14 AM
I can’t even begin to explain the mancrush I have on Kaepernick. Manifest Destiny of football right now. I realize the Packers defense is shit too.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:14 AM
Then he’s a moron. Everyone should know that Flacco has easily one of the strongest arms in the league.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:15 AM
Put it this way: they pass on third and 7 and it’s incomplete (or worse, a turnover) and the Ravens tie the game with time they wouldn’t have had if Denver just run there, Fox is getting killed today. He played the percentages and thought it made sense to hand Baltimore the ball down 7 with no timeouts on the road. That’s the right call.
I think the percentages are actually pretty even this year, probably in favor of passing slightly depending on personnel. Looks like so far this year, Lions lost to Colts and Buccaneers lost to Eagles after running in similar situations, Cowboys blew lead but came back to win late themselves. Patriots-Seahawks was only passing loss out of 9 attempts, when Brady missed with 2:52 left, Wilson hit Rice for deep score. Falcons and Texans both passed in similar situations against Broncos, converted, and won game.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:18 AM
I also don’t know what to do with QB runs out of read option. I don’t think it falls in the same category with what Fox did. RG III’s 76 yard run came when up 4 on a 3rd and 6, on a read option keeper. I think that’s an area where mobile quarterbacks can be valuable, because you can run while being aggressive on 3rd down with game on line.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:23 AM
Then he should be slammed for not paying attention darrell. That TD toss to smith in 1Q was a clue
January 13th, 2013 at 11:23 AM
In 2012– between 1:30 and 3:00 left, facing 3rd and 5 to 10 yards
9 passes, quarterbacks went 7 of 8 for 5 first downs, 1 sack. 8-1 record
3 qb runs, 1 conversion (RG III), 3-0 record
12 running back runs, 3 first downs. 9-3 record including Broncos yesterday
January 13th, 2013 at 11:24 AM
Yeah, I get the argument that having Manning in that situation changes the percentages over say, Sanchez. I would have liked to know what the odds were of the Ravens going 80 yards on the road against Denver’s D with one minute to play. Or rather, how much the odds lowered vs. the same scenario and 1:45 remaining.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:25 AM
I think Fox’s strategy was playing the percentages a decade ago. I’m not so sure anymore. I think completion percentages are so high and conversion rates good enough on both ends to swing it. Only one of the 12 times a QB had the ball in his hand in this situation did it actually hit the ground. And Christian Ponder and Mark Sanchez are on the list.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:27 AM
Good stats Lisk, thanks. Are numbers all for teams leading by a TD?
I don’t know what the numbers say, but to me, running and punting with 3:00 to play up a TD makes less sense than the same playcall with 1:30 to go.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:29 AM
Also Lisk: understand this probably isn’t quantifiable but it was also zero degrees outside. I gotta think that affects the decision making for run/pass a bit.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:34 AM
Yeah, I get the argument that having Manning in that situation changes the percentages over say, Sanchez. I would have liked to know what the odds were of the Ravens going 80 yards on the road against Denver’s D with one minute to play. Or rather, how much the odds lowered vs. the same scenario and 1:45 remaining.
There is a dropoff of course. WPA at Adv NFL stats has it at 10% vs. 6% of Baltimore winning at 1:45 vs. 1:10. Of course, Manning throws, he may take a sack, he may throw short, or he may get first down.
The break even for throwing would be about 27% chance of converting first down and 40% chance of throwing incomplete (plus interception), with 33% chance of completion short of first. I like Manning’s chances even if he didn’t look good in overtime.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:35 AM
Did Denver ever throw deep? Seemed to be a lot of short and intermediate stuff. Peyton was OK, not great. OT pick was bad throw and decision. Seemed like his accuracy was a bit off all day with high and low passes. DBs lost the game for them.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:35 AM
Good stats Lisk, thanks. Are numbers all for teams leading by a TD?
I don’t know what the numbers say, but to me, running and punting with 3:00 to play up a TD makes less sense than the same playcall with 1:30 to go.
I think I looked at all teams needing to TD to win or tie. Data is pretty thin.
January 13th, 2013 at 11:37 AM
Lisk. Any idea why they didn’t have an Osweiller sneak package for short yardage?
January 13th, 2013 at 11:39 AM
Awesome stuff Lisk. Thanks. This has actually made me change my mind a bit on the decision.
January 13th, 2013 at 12:41 PM
No mention of Rodgers, whose only career playoff victories came in 2010. Peyton made some mistakes but made some plays too. Rodgers was terrible.
January 13th, 2013 at 3:35 PM
Hey he beat Joe Webb last week!
I’m not going to kill Manning for yesterday, but that OT pass was Favrian. I feel like this comeback season just cemented his legacy – all time great regular season QB, so-so playoff QB (whose only SB win was over Rex Grossman).
January 13th, 2013 at 9:33 PM
What many people fail to realize is P. Manning has been like this his entire career. He throw for a million yards unless it is a big game with many people watching. In college 0-4 against Florida with no Heisman or National Championship. Strangely, Tennesse wins the next year. His Super Bowl win /MVP should have gone to the running back. The next Super Bowl he was in, well there was one turnover the entire game. It came late in the game when the pressure is high; so you can guess who made it. He is a career choker. If you are gambler, bet against him, especially if the world is watching.
January 14th, 2013 at 11:12 AM
Peyton deserves some of the blame, but Denver DBs flat out sucked. High school DBs know not to give up bombs on plays like that.