North Carolina Appears to Be NIT Bound in 2013 After Home Loss to Miami

All, College Basketball Jason McIntyre January 11th. 2013, 11:05am

North Carolina, NIT-bound? It sure feels that way.

Ignore the 10-5. What matters right now: 0-2 in the ACC, and only one quality win so far this season.

Barring a significant turnaround, the Tar Heels will be lucky if they’re on the NCAA bubble come late February.

The RPI ratings (I know many of you hate them and believe they are flawed, but they matter to the NCAA tournament committee) have UNC 59th, and that was before Thursday’s 68-59 home defeat against Miami, which was without its best player, Reggie Johnson.

UNC is already 0-3 against the RPI Top 25, and the Tar Heels only have one win over the RPI Top 100 (UNLV, at home).

But the RPI debate may not even matter to UNC, because at 0-2 in the ACC, the Tar Heels won’t garner any March consideration unless they can get over .500 in conference play. Currently, the ACC is only the 4th rated conference, and if the Pac-12 continues to improve (Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all currently look like tourney teams), the ACC could fall to 5th soon.

UNC will almost certainly need to win two of six games against NC State, Duke and Maryland before it begins thinking March Madness. (I know the Terps haven’t beaten anyone, but they’re loaded and will only get better as the season progresses). A few more regular season losses and we’ll be talking about how a run in the ACC tourney will be mandatory.

What a brick on my part, ranking UNC 11th in the preseason.

Saturday, 2 pm: UNC at Florida State. A lot on the line for UNC, especially with Maryland, Georgia Tech and at NC State on the horizon.

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43 Responses to “North Carolina Appears to Be NIT Bound in 2013 After Home Loss to Miami”

1
s1rweeze Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:07 AM
How can a GREAT COACH like Roy Williams let this happen?
/stifles laughter
2
PeerLessPrices Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:10 AM
What a brick on my part, ranking UNC 11th in the preseason
Eh, maybe. Be kind of hard to not rank them in the top 25 just because. They look very raw and just ugly to watch. Although nothing close to the ugly that is TN basketball
3
otis sistrunk Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:10 AM
tar heels = lakers
no meaningful postseason on horizon
4
rsmith9 Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:13 AM
A lot on the line for UNC, especially with Maryland, Georgia Tech and at NC State on the horizon.
And, oh yeah, Duke twice later on
5
robioland Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:14 AM
Yes, you had UNC ranked 11th and Duke out of your top-25. Maybe it’s time for TBL to bring in the “Jason Link” of college basketball.
6
José Pippen Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:16 AM
Conversely, Miami now has wins against MSU and UNC; and losses to Florida Gulf Coast (by like 10) and a Larry Bird-less Indiana-State.
7
ohheelyeah Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:16 AM
It isn’t for lack of talent or a lack of coaching. These players just don’t know how to win and don’t have that killer instinct. Also, despite Roy’s specific instructions, they are usually horribly out of position on defense.
8
KC Resident Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:17 AM
I know many of you hate them and believe they are flawed, but they matter to the NCAA tournament committee
Exactly.
Also, in Saint Self I trust. The damn man is a machine.
9
KC Resident Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:18 AM
Also, despite Roy’s specific instructions, they are usually horribly out of position on defense.
Roy doesn’t instruct on defense.
10
ohheelyeah Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:19 AM
Roy doesn’t instruct on defense.
Yep. never seen him directing traffic. or any of his assistants doing that. never. yep. you’re right.
11
Human Vacuum Cleaner Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:21 AM
(I know the Terps haven’t beaten anyone, but they’re loaded and will only get better as the season progresses)
They are loaded at the 3-5 spots. The guard spots? Not so much. (Bordering on terrible.)
12
arkbadger Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:22 AM
How can a GREAT COACH like Roy Williams let this happen?
/stifles laughter
I’m still waiting to find out who he blamed this loss on.
13
DeusExMachina Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:22 AM
They are terrible, but this pattern is nothing new. 2010 comes to mind, and ’06 would have probably been just as bad if it wasn’t for Hansbrough. As long as they have years like ’05 and ’09 the fans will put up with it. This could also have been another post-title grace year if Marshall didn’t get hurt.
14
HPN Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:25 AM
UM is a very underrated team this year. It’s not that bad of a loss for unc. Cincy on the other hand should be hitting the panic button
15
Jim Harbaugh Scramble Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:25 AM
tough to win without a starting 5 of McDonald’s all americans.
16
ohheelyeah Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:26 AM
They are terrible, but this pattern is nothing new. 2010 comes to mind, and ’06 would have probably been just as bad if it wasn’t for Hansbrough. As long as they have years like ’05 and ’09 the fans will put up with it. This could also have been another post-title grace year if Marshall didn’t get hurt.
Pretty much this. At the beginning of the 2011 season, NO one at that school thought KM would be ready to leave last year. Imagine where this team would be with him on the court this year. While it sucks to be in this spot, I would gladly take some form of say going NIT, first round exit, elite 8 exit, championship every four or five years.
17
Caribou Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:28 AM
How can a GREAT COACH like Roy Williams let this happen?
The more I see him coach and what he has to work with, the more I believe RW is over-rated. UNC, the name itself, gets top talent to the school. I remember talking with KC_Resident on the board during last year’s tourney, and Bill Self gets so much more out of his players.
Oh yeah, UNC is NIT bound. My boy couldn’t believe they lost to MIA last nite. I thought they probably would. Plus, they were laying 6 pts?!?!? Really? I don’t bet against my own teams, but I passed along the info to a friend of mine that he should threw a few $$$. UNC is all about perimeter shooting, no inside presence. If Bullock isn’t on, oh boy. Plus, tack on that they are young. Bad mixture there.
18
ButtersBC Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:29 AM
The more I see him coach and what he has to work with, the more I believe RW is over-rated
Been on this train for a while, glad to have you amongst our ranks
19
Human Vacuum Cleaner Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:30 AM
UM is a very underrated team this year.
Less so after Wed night’s game but looking forward to the MD-Miami tilt Sunday night. Should be Miami by 5 or 6 but interested to see how MD reacts to that 2nd half vs. FSU.
20
Nada Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:31 AM
I knew LSU’s 9-2 start was a mirage and their season was doomed when ESPN picked them as one the 10 Possible Surprise Teams of 2012-13 (or something like that).
21
Caribou Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:34 AM
plus, MIA was working without their big man Reggie Johnson last nite. hell, if he would have been there, UNC might have gotten beaten worse. McAdoo at least started out well last nite, which he hadn’t been doing this year. The need to coach up Joel James quickly, I know he’s a Frosh. McAdoo has not been playing tough inside like Zeller & hansborough before him. He benefited from Zeller grabbing double-teams and leaving McAdoo with the thunderous dunks and open shots. Not having that this year.
22
otis sistrunk Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:37 AM
damn, bou, with all that cbb knowledge how come you haven’t bet cbb much?
/hit on sparty and st. mary’s last night, lost the o/u in st. mary’s game
23
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:42 AM
If Kelly is out for the rest of the year State should win the conference easily, could well mean another first weekend exit for Duke. That being said, UNC sucks.
24
vajayjay redick Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:44 AM
I know the Terps haven’t beaten anyone, but they’re loaded and will only get better as the season progresses
Loaded? They lost to Kentucky when Jarred Polson was their PG, and just blew a double-digit lead at home to crappy Florida State. 55th in KenPom, behind UNC. They dont have a single guy who would start for Duke.
25
vajayjay redick Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:47 AM
If Kelly is out for the rest of the year State should win the conference easily, could well mean another first weekend exit for Duke.
If they plan on starting Josh Hairston against State they might as well raise the white flag. Dude is awful.
26
Cheesus Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:51 AM
It’s pretty tough to replace 4 first-round draft picks.
27
Caribou Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:52 AM
damn, bou, with all that cbb knowledge how come you haven’t bet cbb much?
I talk a little too much out my ass sometimes. LOL. I’m a UNC fan, so I like to think I’m pretty honest about them as a team.
I’ve just started betting college bball this year for the 1st time and have done so the last 4-5 weeks. a little here and there, nothing crazy. I miss my college football and my projection method in excel. I dont have anything like that for bball, at least not yet.
I also glean a little off people from the cbspsorts message board and pregame.com to see how the line moves & public %. That’s about it. I feel I’ve been more lucky than good with college bball.
Wife found out I was betting on the NBA (or National Basketball Association as she said it as we spoke about it LOL) and then she said, “Now you’re just betting to bet, you don’t even like the NBA!”. so true, so true
28
48yearslump Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:56 AM
They lost 4 guys who went in the first 17 picks of the NBA draft and don’t have Coach Cal’s “ability” to reload. No great mystery here.
29
vajayjay redick Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:58 AM
It’s pretty tough to replace 4 first-round draft picks.
2000 Duke – #1 seed in tournament, won ACC, Sweet 16 exit
2006 UNC – #3 seed in tournament, 2nd in ACC, 2nd round exit
2007 UConn – 12th in Big East, missed tournament
2011 Kentucky – #4 seed in tournament, Final 4
It’s a mixed bag. Usually teams that produce 4 first round picks are teams that can reload pretty quickly. McAdoo was supposed to be the guy this year, he hasnt been. Probably shouldve left last year.
30
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 11:59 AM
It’s impossible for a team to be good when they get three Jordan Classic players and a McDonald’s AA, impossible.
31
sctrojans Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:01 PM
It isn’t for lack of talent or a lack of coaching. These players just don’t know how to win and don’t have that killer instinct. Also, despite Roy’s specific instructions, they are usually horribly out of position on defense.
This is textbook bad coaching. And he’s a phony douchebag.
32
DeusExMachina Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:02 PM
UNC doesn’t really reload on one and dones like Kentucky does, they rely on players staying 2-3 years.
33
Caribou Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:02 PM
It’s pretty tough to replace 4 first-round draft picks.
I dont buy that, guys that are playing now, McAdoo, Strickland, Bullock, McDonald, Hairston, all saw significant playing time last year. I know they are So. and Jrs. but they need to step it up. I guess Bullock called a player’s only meeting the other day, 2nd one this season, to try and right this ship. I don’t think they need to panic completely, but some guys have just got to step up and play the ball they are capable of.
If they can go .500 in ACC play, I think that puts them at 19-12, pre-ACC conf. tourney. But, that got to win home games, that didnt happen last nite.
34
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:03 PM
If UNC needed a point guard so bad they should have gotten the top PG recruit in the country last year. Oh they did? Oops.
35
vajayjay redick Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:05 PM
This is textbook bad coaching. And he’s a phony douchebag.
Roy never calls timeouts during the game even if the other team is on a 20-0 run. When you watch his teams run plays out of timeouts you begin to understand why.
36
Caribou Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:08 PM
If UNC needed a point guard so bad they should have gotten the top PG recruit in the country last year. Oh they did? Oops.
Paige has played decent, made some unforced TOs, but I think he can do it. People are just so used to the unbelievable play of Kendall Marshall. wished he would have stayed.
37
HtownHacker Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:10 PM
If UNC needed a point guard so bad they should have gotten the top PG recruit in the country last year. Oh they did? Oops.
If by last year you mean the 2012 class, it was a really bad point guard class. And we Friar fans like to think we got the top PG (Kris Dunn), who has not exactly lit the world on fire thus far.
38
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:12 PM
Yeah it’s rough when the top rated PG isn’t even a five star recruit or in most people’s overall top 20.
Still they have enough talent that they shouldn’t be struggling as bad as they are.
39
DeusExMachina Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:18 PM
Still they have enough talent that they shouldn’t be struggling as bad as they are.
Grudgingly I admit this is the biggest difference between K and Roy. K gets a lot more out of what he has. Roy can’t really adapt if he has players that doesn’t fit his system, even if the players are talented.
40
DeusExMachina Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 12:20 PM
Roy usually does get players he needs though, probably because of his aw shucks folksy charm.
41
Nada Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 1:28 PM
K gets a lot more out of what he has. Roy can’t really adapt if he has players that doesn’t fit his system
I walked past Roy Williams once while taking a stroll on the beach at Isle of Palms. He smelt of the ocean.
42
Cheesus Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 1:28 PM
I dont buy that, guys that are playing now, McAdoo, Strickland, Bullock, McDonald, Hairston, all saw significant playing time last year.
Those guys are all role players.
43
ohheelyeah Says:
January 11th, 2013 at 1:56 PM
Grudgingly I admit this is the biggest difference between K and Roy. K gets a lot more out of what he has. Roy can’t really adapt if he has players that doesn’t fit his system, even if the players are talented.
K, meet 2011-12 season. 2011-12 season, meet K.
Seriously, he recruited 1 player who single-handedly destroyed the teams chemistry, and K never really knew how to coach that squad around it. These things happen from time to time, so pace yourself with the blanket statements.