The Redskins Went Worst-to-First, Keeping an Amazing NFL Streak Intact
One of the most radical NFL streaks remains intact: Thanks to the Washington Redskins, the league has now had a team go worst-to-first in its division for 10 straight years. (Parity!) We examined the streak in August, and I foolishly thought the Chiefs, Bucs and Bills were the strongest contenders in 2012 (though I said nice things about the Colts!).
The Redskins weren’t considered. Very few people thought highly of the Redskins in the preseason. Check out these ESPN preseason picks. Redskins nowhere to be found. Same with Sports Illustrated. If you need a reminder, there are no “experts.” We’re all just throwing darts, and some of us throw darts better than others. Sometimes.
Anyway, the 10 straight years of worst-to-first:
2003: Carolina Panthers (7-9)/Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
2004: Atlanta Falcons (5-11)/San Diego Chargers (4-12)
2005: Chicago Bears (5-11)/New York Giants (6-10)
2006: Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)/New Orleans Saints (3-13)/Baltimore Ravens (6-10)
2007: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
2008: Miami Dolphins (1-15)
2009: New Orleans Saints (8-8)
2010: Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
2011: Houston Texans (6-10)
2012: Washington Redskins (5-11)
It’s much too early to make guesses for next year, given free agency and the draft and coaching/GM changes. But the last place teams:
* Bills/Jets
* Browns
* Jaguars
* Chiefs
* Eagles
* Lions
* Panthers/Saints/Bucs
* Cardinals
There are eight months to get your predictions ready, but the guess here is the Browns, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions and Saints will be the most popular picks, with New Orleans – thanks to the return of Sean Payton – the overwhelming choice.
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January 4th, 2013 at 10:05 AM
This is fun to go back and read:
http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/11/01/win-or-lose-to-carolina-mike-shanahan-has-nothing-to-worry-about-adam-schefter-is-on-his-side/
January 4th, 2013 at 10:08 AM
Which also nearly coincides with when the league went to 8 four-team divisions thus increasing both the likelihood and ease in which a club can go from 4th to 1st
January 4th, 2013 at 10:11 AM
Speaking of Schefter, that guy was all over the place on Wednesday telling everyone who would listen that Arizona was a perfect fit for Reid and he would almost certainly end up there. Then yesterday he’s doing the same thinge except, suprise, he’s “breaking” the news that Reid would have a deal with the Cheifs by EOD. Fuck him.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:12 AM
So if any of these three win the South next year…worst to first?
About as disingenuous as the Badgers’ Rose Bowl bid.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:13 AM
Slightly OT, but if San Francisco or Seattle goes to the Super Bowl, this will be 7 straight years the NFC Champ has beaten Buffalo in the regular season.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Certainly better than nearly 200 years ago when they went from Coerced-to-Traversed.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Mel Kiper has Logan Thomas as a top-5 QB for the NFL in this class. I can’t wait watching whatever team drafts him in the first round. High comedy indeed.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Which also nearly coincides with when the league went to 8 four-team divisions thus increasing both the likelihood and ease in which a club can go from 4th to 1st
Yeah…mark me down as not very impressed with this “streak”.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Most competitive BCS game loser yet!
January 4th, 2013 at 10:15 AM
Katja Kassin went ass to mouth keeping an amazing syphilis streak alive.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:17 AM
When’s the last time a Heisman QB finalist wasn’t even drafted? Colin Klein fits the mold…that chuck before halftime was cringe inducing
January 4th, 2013 at 10:18 AM
well 9 comments in and this trivial stat has been exposed. next post, plz.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:18 AM
The entire time I was watching the Cap One bowl I was thinking about how nice it would have been for Georgia to play Michigan instead. Thanks a lot, Pelini.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:19 AM
Charlie Ward? Oh, you said finalist…not winner.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:19 AM
Jason White?
January 4th, 2013 at 10:19 AM
It was the last play I watched and it was fucking hilarious. Dude threw it like 40 yards. He seems like a nice kid who was a gamer, but damn he’s terrible. Also, pretty sure Jason White was undrafted and he won the damn award.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:21 AM
I recently saw on twitter that his #1 QB is Mike Glennon. Who in the blue hell is Mike Glennon?
January 4th, 2013 at 10:22 AM
Then yesterday he’s doing the same thinge except, suprise, he’s “breaking” the news that Reid would have a deal with the Cheifs by EOD. Fuck him.
that sucktard learned from the best poo slinger in the biz, mortenson. espn gave up being correct a long, long time ago.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:22 AM
Josh “Who?” Heupel was a finalist did not get drafted in 2000.
/obscure reference
//probably someone more recent
January 4th, 2013 at 10:23 AM
Mike Glennon
You mean the guy who got picked 3 times and beat down by Vandy earlier this week?
January 4th, 2013 at 10:24 AM
Wow, Wayne. that’s good
January 4th, 2013 at 10:24 AM
NCST QB. He has the prototypical NFL frame and can throw it a mile. I wouldn’t want him as my QB, but I get why he’s going to be a “hot name.”
January 4th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
mark me down as impressed.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
some wanker who plays for cow college.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
He was drafted in the 6th round by Dolphins acutally. Fuck.
/FUCK YOU JOSH HEUPEL you useless cunt
January 4th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
Tall QB from NC St. Has a good arm, also has horrible judgement.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:25 AM
Does Kiper think Glennon is worthy of a first round pick? Big difference between having him as his top QB but not thinking much of the class.
Going to be hilarious when three QBs go in the first round. I guess Ponder and Gabbert never happened.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:26 AM
Mark me down as abstained from voting.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:26 AM
Some of us tried to tell you the Skins had a good shot at it. Some of us also really liked the Chiefs to do it too though…
Standard for him. I just hope nothing bad happens to those people now that he’s mentioned them.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:26 AM
I’d take Glennon and Bray over Thomas all fucking day. I don’t care how big or agile Thomas is. HE CAN’T THROW THE BALL. Now watch Oakland take him.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:27 AM
I will always remember when Kyle Boller threw the ball through the uprights from the 50 on one knee.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:28 AM
Next year isn’t much better. Bridgewater will be a big name, but other than that it’s wide open.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:29 AM
Exactly. The NFL puts way too much into arm strength because every NFL coach thinks they can fix whatever doesn’t work. Gimme accuracy first and foremost. Having a great arm a la Rodgers puts a QB over the edge, but you can win with only accuracy. You can’t with just arm strength.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:30 AM
we marked you down when you published the piece on this website.
seriously though, I think a better gauge would be to look at what would be an impressive win differential and then start a streak based on that. 8-8 teams going from worst to first in their division the next year is nothing to be impressed by. A team going from 1-15 to win their division the next year? sure, lets talk about it all day long.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:30 AM
Their Atlantic Wall was quite pedestrian.
/also, more like 500 years
January 4th, 2013 at 10:30 AM
Who is the shitty QB all the scouts will fall over themselves to draft this year in the first round? This year’s Akili Smith/Gabbert? I’m leaning Bray.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:31 AM
Ahhh now I remember. Holy titty fuck is this QB class awful this year. I’m still floored that people think Logan Thomas is a top 5 QB prospect. He couldn’t hit water if he was in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:31 AM
Mike Glennon=Flacco 2.0
January 4th, 2013 at 10:31 AM
You’d think it would be easier to add arm strength than accuracy. That’s what Brady did.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:31 AM
Thomas if he comes out. I wouldn’t want Bray anywhere near my team either, though. You have two NFL players at OT plus two NFL WRs and you can’t win games? Yikes.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:32 AM
This might be the perfect comparison.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:37 AM
you should do that on your site. i’d read it.
i like the fact that for the last 10 years, you could look at a last place team in a division and say, ‘well, one of these WILL definitely be first next year.’
January 4th, 2013 at 10:37 AM
So he got all the credit of beating FSU by doing absolutely nothing to help the team win?
January 4th, 2013 at 10:38 AM
Your ceiling’s still Chad Pennington though
January 4th, 2013 at 10:38 AM
I don’t think Glennon is going to amount to anything in the NFL…but, I think Ryan Nassib is going to be a very good QB, and will wind up being far away the best QB of this draft.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:40 AM
Browns are clearly taking the AFC North next year. SUPER BOWL.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:40 AM
fuck you, ya freak bitch
nice
January 4th, 2013 at 10:42 AM
Can’t say definitely. Just because it has happened doesn’t mean it will definitely happen. It’s also not THAT shocking. The difference between teams is so small in many cases. Also, many teams are one injury away to a player and it renders them incapable of winning games. It’s a cool stat for sure, but that’s about it in my opinion.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:42 AM
Helluva lot higher than many QBs.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:44 AM
that is way, way too generous, IMO. Every time i’ve seen Glennon he makes bad decisions and appears clueless in the pocket when it comes to awareness.
I’d say Glennon is more like John Skelton or Scott Mitchell
January 4th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
it has now happened 10 years in a row. odds are it will happen again next year.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Joe_flacco_kevinmoore.jpg
January 4th, 2013 at 10:45 AM
I think if Aaron Murray comes out (50/50) and he’s taken in the 2nd round he can be very good. He doesn’t need the 1st round pressure though. Maybe going to a team like NO where he could sit for a couple of of years before Brees hangs it up. Though they wouldn’t take him that high of course.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:46 AM
This is the very reason I labeled him Flacco 2.0
January 4th, 2013 at 10:46 AM
You must be a hoot at the roulette table.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:46 AM
Agree the odds are there. Still not definite though. I mean…Dallas was one win away in week 17 from this not happening.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:48 AM
Murray will be fine in the NFL except those weeks where he faces whatever team Clowney is on.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:48 AM
Probably so, unless of course he gets the Tenn OTs who held Clowney in check most of the day.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:49 AM
once I find staff to write for http://www.thebigGIF.com I’ll pass along the link to the article
thats historical revisionism and doesn’t really help your argument.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:49 AM
it’s been 200 years since the last 500-yr earthquake struck the central US. we’re totes safe from another one.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:52 AM
Some rough math:
In one division with four teams, there may be 11/9/7/5 wins equal to .69/.56/.44/.31 win %.
If win-loss is random, the last place team has a 25% chance of being first place team next year. Without any improvement, a team with a true .31 win % would have less than a 1% chance at 11 wins the next year, but usually the worst-to-first can get away with 9 or 10 wins, increasing the odds. Given the draft favoring poor teams, and the fact that 42% of win-loss records is due to randomness/variance, it’s probably somewhere in the middle. If you give the last place team a 10% chance (close to the geometric mean) to get first place next year, and you have 8 divisions, the chances in one year of a worst-to-first is pretty good (57%). The chances of it happening in 10 straight years are closer to 0.3% (0.003)
January 4th, 2013 at 10:52 AM
Get those facts outta here! Also, the 2009 NO team had to win exactly 1 more game (that didn’t include their sweep of ATL) for it to happen that year. ZOMG, now that was impressive and I DEFINITELY saw it coming. Not saying it isn’t a neat/cool/trending result, but I wouldn’t go setting my watch by it or overvaluing it.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:53 AM
Bottle of whiskey every 200 words and I’ll throw in the SEO for free.
January 4th, 2013 at 10:53 AM
I’ll write it up more in depth if you will link to it on twitter…
/see if you actually mean it
January 4th, 2013 at 10:57 AM
Jason, your failure to capture the logic of your statements here is astounding. The mere fact that it is an amazing streak (read: unlikely) means that it is more likely than not, to end. If you flip a coin 5 times heads, it’s cool but no one really cares. If you throw a dice 5 times a ’6′, that’s more impressive. The streak you are more impressed by (1/6^5) is much less likely to continue than the one you aren’t (1/2^5 = 1/32)
January 4th, 2013 at 10:58 AM
To say it’s a sure thing, is basically to say it’s no big deal. Yet you say it’s a big deal, meaning it is highly improbable. You have to choose one or the other.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:01 AM
fixed for commenter meme-ry
January 4th, 2013 at 11:05 AM
it has now happened 10 years in a row. odds are it will happen again next year.
i have flipped a coin and it has come up heads 10 times straight. what are the odds it comes up heads again?
January 4th, 2013 at 11:06 AM
ha; if only you knew how untrue this was
January 4th, 2013 at 11:08 AM
Bottle of whiskey every 200 words
unless you;re talking airplane bottles, that’s pretty low freelance pay. 35 bucks for 200 words? you hack. i expect you to write like you drink canuck
January 4th, 2013 at 11:12 AM
oops, i meant unless you;re talking these bottles, not airplane bottles
/woke up at 4am
January 4th, 2013 at 11:13 AM
Prety sure WWoS won’t be around these parts too much longer
January 4th, 2013 at 11:13 AM
Do freelance writers get paid by the word, or by the article? If $35 for 200 words is low, what would be a more reasonable rate?
January 4th, 2013 at 11:16 AM
Duffy gets paid by the syllable.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:18 AM
WWOS I like the point of your comments but your delivery the past few months has been in the Sgt. Hauk territory.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:19 AM
Depends. Sometimes it’s a flat fee, sometimes not. It’s not usually very much, though–at least it wasn’t at my last job, where my boss always talked about putting the “free” in freelance.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:19 AM
/wire reference goes right over my head
January 4th, 2013 at 11:21 AM
by word for me, h-town. so my high end is a buck per word, and my low end is 30c per word which i only do for stories that don’t require too much work and are like 3000 word pieces so it’s a nice amount. other clients are in between
January 4th, 2013 at 11:22 AM
i’ve also been paid say 1200 a week for whatever they ask me to do in a week. it’s all about what you think is fair. no one forces you to take a job, so it’s negotiable
January 4th, 2013 at 11:23 AM
Man it sucks to be Logan Thomas. The kid gets shat on all day just because Mel Kiper thinks he’s great.
Tough for a guy who didn’t even want to play qb, admits his weaknesses repeatably, and hasn’t even given any indication that he’s leaving for the draft.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:28 AM
I got vices to feed.
/next month
January 4th, 2013 at 11:30 AM
He could end up being well compensated for his troubles though, so there’s that
January 4th, 2013 at 11:30 AM
$900 for a doesn’t “require too much work” story? where can I get some of these?
January 4th, 2013 at 11:35 AM
Miz what i mean by ‘too much work’ is analytic dry technical stuff that is no fun to write. So its more type of work than amount. A few interviews for a more featurey piece that is more human is what i consider easy or fun
January 4th, 2013 at 11:35 AM
Our company pays some 50 cents a word. Really good writers can command far higher, though.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:37 AM
Unfortunately the higher paying gigs are also the least fun and tax my brain more
/as it should be
January 4th, 2013 at 11:37 AM
Me and the word “cunt” are a package deal, might be limiting my commercial opportunities.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:40 AM
You may have to go indie soused
January 4th, 2013 at 11:41 AM
Only if the indie women up there hygiene and dress in office wear.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:42 AM
I was supporting Jason’s point… it’s an impressive streak, and one that is impressive because it is unlikely to continue.
January 4th, 2013 at 11:43 AM
Husker when you say really good writers do you mean writing only or the whole package of knowing how to gather the info too, not needing handholding, etc?
January 4th, 2013 at 11:46 AM
With Google recent algorithm changes to search results companies across the world need new, relevant content constantly. Hey English majors, take your head out of the oven, you are now employable!
January 4th, 2013 at 11:49 AM
It took me three tries to understand what that sentence says.
January 4th, 2013 at 12:12 PM
Good. I thought I was just having issues cause I’m spencer’d.
January 4th, 2013 at 12:29 PM
Vez, the very reason I got out of freelancing was the plethora of editors who want to pay $150 for an article but expect you to put 40 hours of work into it. That $150 translates to me as 8 hours, tops.