Christian Ponder Is Getting Outgained By Adrian Peterson, So Does That Mean He Is a Lost Cause?
Adrian Peterson is two games and 294 yards away from the NFL rushing record. Christian Ponder, meanwhile, is struggling despite Peterson’s insane performance, as Minnesota has had more rushing yards than passing yards for three straight weeks, and six times this season. Adrian Peterson is actually averaging a higher yards per carry (6.3) than Ponder is averaging yards per attempt (5.9).
So is there any hope for Ponder, since he cannot even take advantage of the defensive fronts that Adrian Peterson commands? Well, yeah. The yards per attempt is a concern, but while it may not seem intuitive, the fact that the yards per attempt is coming despite having the advantages of a strong running game is not.
From 1970 to 2007, twenty-one quarterbacks threw at least 300 passes at age 24, and averaged a yards per attempt less than 6.5.
In looking at the list, there is no relationship between the rushing game for those young quarterbacks, and how their careers turned out. Among those with the best rushing games, we have Terry Bradshaw, Doug Williams, and Drew Brees. The middle of the pack features Brett Favre and Steve McNair, while Troy Aikman, Donovan McNabb, and Jeff George show up among those with poor rushing games.
When we look at the identity of the lead backs, well, there is no case that struggling with a star running back is a bigger problem when evaluating a young quarterback. Drew Brees had a virtually identical 5.9 yards per attempt as a 24-year old; he was playing with LaDainian Tomlinson. Terry Bradshaw had Franco Harris. Steve McNair was playing with the really good version of Eddie George as a young quarterback. Troy Aikman played with a rookie named Emmitt Smith.
This certainly doesn’t mean that Christian Ponder is going to turn into the next Drew Brees. It does mean that Adrian Peterson’s success shouldn’t be held against Christian Ponder, or lead writers to say things like Mark Sanchez would still be starting if he had Adrian Peterson instead. It’s too early to give up on Ponder despite his subpar play this season, and that’s true regardless of who his running back is.
[photo via USA Today Sports Images]

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59 Responses to “Christian Ponder Is Getting Outgained By Adrian Peterson, So Does That Mean He Is a Lost Cause?”
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December 21st, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Such an amazing stat.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Adrian Peterson is actually averaging a higher yards per carry (6.3)
That is ludicrously good.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:39 AM
I wonder how completion percentage would relate to running game, and Y/A. Simply because if you have a RB who is getting 6 ypc, you could throw deep on second down if you are Tom Brady, but you could also attempt a bunch of short easy passes because you are in better position to feed off the running game. I have no idea if that’s at all the case with the Viking’s offense, but I’ think that at least the literal yards per attempt (how many yards the ball travels in the air, caught or not) might be related to running game, and whether you have the pressure because of down and distance to throw downfield.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Incredible. Give this man the award.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:42 AM
I’d say that writer buttfumbled the comparison.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:42 AM
In fact, the stats seem to back that up, and I’m disappointed you didn’t consider/think about that.
Ponder is 11th in the league in completion percentage, and 34 in yards per attempt. Whether of not that is his fault or the offense is called that way, I’d suggest that is reflective of being in situations which allow them to throw short for a first down often, rather than taking advantage of second and short, and throwing long.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:43 AM
Chris Johnson doesn’t understand why everyone is talking aout All Day instead of Chris Johnson.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:44 AM
If I’m reading Football Reference correctly Dickerson averaged 5.6 per carry the year he set the single season rushing record. Peterson needs only 300 yards to break the record. It might finally fall after 28 years.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:45 AM
Despite being last in the league in passing yards, the Vikings are league average (17th) in points scored.
The counter argument is that the are very low on the “first down” rankings. But I do think it’s certainly a cause-effect argument that merits consideration.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:46 AM
Ponder’s Super Bowl is already won i.e. Samantha Steele
December 21st, 2012 at 11:47 AM
Peterson could break the rushing record and finish fourth or fifth in the MVP balloting. It’s like Ted Williams winning the Triple Crown but not the MVP.
/ Please, not meant to stir Miggy vs. Trout debate
December 21st, 2012 at 11:48 AM
the Vikings wideouts are a poor lot, especially after Percy Harvin got injured
December 21st, 2012 at 11:48 AM
not having a healthy Percy Harvin has really hamstrung Ponder the past couple weeks. that, combined with no other decent WR option than Harvin makes it doubly tough. that being said, I think Ponder is kind of showing exactly what most rationale Viking fans thought they would see, he just isn’t that good of a QB.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:49 AM
If he sneaks the Vikes into the playoffs somehow and is snubbed of the MVP, why even consider it anything than a QBs award anymore?
December 21st, 2012 at 11:49 AM
An NFL QB settled down because the first somewhat famous chick he met wouldn’t put out without a ring. This will end badly, with an “I want to kiss you” sideline interview in 10 years.
/Ponder probably won’t be in the league in 10 years
December 21st, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Again, ESPN has Peterson fourth in the MVP race behind Rodgers.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:53 AM
As any Vikings fan will tell you (well, at least the rational ones), Ponder is right there with Sanchez as worst regular starting QB this year. He is unable to do anything other than hand the ball to Peterson or play fake, roll out and throw to Kyle Rudolph. Oh, and he will occasionally make a play like on 4th down on the first possession last week where he successfully scrambles out of disaster. But the bad far, far outweighs the good. The Vikes need to grab Vick or trade for Rivers (gasp) or even Matt Flynn this offseason.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:55 AM
An NFL QB settled down because the first somewhat famous chick he met wouldn’t put out without a ring. This will end badly, with an “I want to kiss you” sideline interview in 10 years.
/Ponder probably won’t be in the league in 10 years
Exactly. He’s recognizing that he likely won’t get better as he’s found out and is getting the best he can get.
/he’ll be a sideline analyst in 10 years
December 21st, 2012 at 11:56 AM
Bold.
December 21st, 2012 at 11:57 AM
I was shocked Ponder went that high in the draft (Locker too). So why is it a suprise he aint blowing anybody’s doors off?
December 21st, 2012 at 11:59 AM
I really like Locker, but those accuracy questions are definitely not answered. He missed a couple on MNF that were pretty bad, wide open. Ponder I kinda liked a couple times when I saw him too. The problem I have with any young QB is that a lot of it is the coaching/system/development, and I have no faith in a team that couldn’t figure out Brad Childress was a terrible coach, to actually put a system in place to develop a young QB.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:02 PM
You mean a dude who couldn’t throw the ball accurately for 4 entire seasons in college didn’t magically figure it out against better players? Shocking.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:06 PM
amazing that they beat the niners this season. may be the strangest outcome of 2012 nfl year
December 21st, 2012 at 12:08 PM
nice
December 21st, 2012 at 12:09 PM
I guess I wouldn’t mind Vick, although his better days are past him, but that doesn’t really help the whole accuracy problem they are having with Ponder right now. Flynn is hard to judge, he could easily be a Matt Cassell type IMO. Rivers do not want. locker room issues are the last thing the Vikings need.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Why would any team want Vick? Seriously? What does he bring to the table at this point? He’s a TO machine.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:12 PM
The Vikes need to grab Vick or trade for Rivers (gasp) or even Matt Flynn this offseason.
smells like desperation in here
December 21st, 2012 at 12:16 PM
i dont see san diego unloading rivers unless somebody offers soemthing insane. a new coach/gm will see what he has with him for one year and if given a head coach with a pulse maybe he improves. terrible year for drafting qbs. i just dont see that
its gonna be alex smith, vick, flynn, maybe hassleback
December 21st, 2012 at 12:18 PM
Have you seen Ponder play this year? Vick would not be “good,” but he would be better than Ponder. Pretty much anyone this side of Sanchez fits that bill. /Tebow
December 21st, 2012 at 12:18 PM
Just grab Tyler Wilson in the 2nd round and pray he develops some pocket awareness
December 21st, 2012 at 12:18 PM
its gonna be alex smith, vick, flynn, maybe hassleback
sad.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:20 PM
Especially since they found out Joey Harrington was unavailable.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:21 PM
put Tebow in the backfield with Peterson. Run every play.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Someone just dropped Denver’s defense in my keeper league. What the shit.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:23 PM
Smart man. Though I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Wilson goes in the first round. This year’s QB crop seems super weak. Barkley, Bray, Wilson…who else? Aaron Murray might leave, but most think he won’t. Logan Thomas is awful, but if he leaves some idiot will fall in love with his size/athleticism.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Someone just dropped Denver’s defense in my keeper league. What the shit.
how the hell is your league allowing free agent moves in the playoffs?
December 21st, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Vick has a higher TO/play percentage than Sanchez the past 2 years. And Sanchez has had 50 turnovers. Do you want the guy who will play every game and turn it over twice a game? Or do you want the guy who turn it over just as much, but not play in half the games? The answer is neither of course. Can’t wait for Vick to go to the Jets.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:29 PM
Barkley, Bray, Wilson…who else?
From the stupid draft blogs I read, apparently Mike Glennon is a possible 1st rounder.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:29 PM
OK, so you are starting to convince me. Tebow it is. Alex Smith would be nice. /desperationindeed
December 21st, 2012 at 12:30 PM
Knew I forgot one. Good call.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:32 PM
Gino Smith?
Do you really think that many teams will go with QB in the first round, especially considering the class isn’t all that great? a lot of the teams with QB needs that will be drafting early have already blown their showboat the past couple years on QB’s that didn’t work out, hopefully they learn from their mistakes.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:33 PM
I can’t get over the stupidity of rating Glennon that high, though. Didn’t he leave Virginia Tech because he lost his job to Logan Thomas, or is that a different Glennon?
December 21st, 2012 at 12:34 PM
we’ve got a slightly used Colt McCoy up here… for the price of… 4th round pick????????
December 21st, 2012 at 12:34 PM
In all honesty, I would like to see Tebow get another chance as a starter. Pairing him with someone like Peterson would almost guarantee some success.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:36 PM
a lot of the teams with QB needs that will be drafting early have already blown their showboat the past couple years on QB’s that didn’t work out, hopefully they learn from their mistakes.
You’re right about Geno Smith, he’s still #1 or #2 among QBs according to the previously mentioned stupid draft blogs. He’s the only one I would take that kind of chance on. You’re wrong about teams shying away from taking QBs in the 1st round, though. The way the game is officiated now and the potential reward of taking a franchise QB makes the low cost (contract-wise) of taking a QB in the 1st round too much to pass up.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:38 PM
I would love to see Tebow in Minnesota with Peterson and Gerhart (and Percy) if they run some kind of updated option offense. I think that would throw a lot of defenses off balance
December 21st, 2012 at 12:39 PM
Wrong Glennon. That was his older brother who went to VT. This Glennon is actually pretty good.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:39 PM
The rest of the teams in the bottom 5 of “Passing Yards Per Attempt” through week 15 this season are exactly who you would expect…a bunch of bad QBs:
28. NYJ- 6.3
29. JAX- 6.3
30. KC- 6.2
31. MIN- 5.9
32. ARI- 5.5
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt
December 21st, 2012 at 12:40 PM
That would actually be kind of awesome.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:40 PM
It is only a qbs award. As it should be considering the nature of today’s NFL. Peterson is having the best season in running back history and it’s only made Minn a fringe playoff contender
December 21st, 2012 at 12:40 PM
Totally forgot about Geno Smith. Yeah…he’ll certainly be the first QB taken.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:42 PM
If they hired Chip Kelly or Urban Meyer…
December 21st, 2012 at 12:43 PM
I think he is favored to be the first qb taken, but certainly seems a stretch
December 21st, 2012 at 12:45 PM
Is that the same blog that has Geno Smith going #1 overall? I need to patronize better draft websites, it’s almost time to focus on making my Bengals better after they inevitably lose out.
December 21st, 2012 at 12:51 PM
So you’re Mike Brown’s scouting dept.?
/Seriously though, send him your reports, he’ll probably consider them
December 21st, 2012 at 1:00 PM
Yeah, not having an actual GM does kinda suck. But at least draft scouting/coverage has gotten better. The last 3 drafts have been damn near a masterpiece. Even though I wanted DeCastro over Zeitler at guard, for the first year I can remember I kinda trusted the pick.
December 21st, 2012 at 1:10 PM
Not a single Joe Webb argument attempt? Not even in the comments? For shame.
December 21st, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Ponder has looked totally hopeless at times, but he was perfectly competent earlier this year, especially at home against the Niners and Titans. I’d love to know what happened to that guy.
December 21st, 2012 at 3:18 PM
SF game: Harvin 9 catches for 89 yds
Ten game: Harvin 8 catches for 108
thats what happened