The Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez Contract Probably Won’t Provide Good Value

All, Baseball Ty Duffy December 14th. 2012, 4:15pm

The Detroit Tigers have re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a five-year $80 million deal. He’s a nice pitcher. It will be a popular move after his excellent postseason, but this is a silly contract. Only four NFL players make more than him.

Greinke was the clear top pitcher available. The Dodgers splashed the cash on him. Pitchers in Sanchez’ tier below Greinke have been signing sensible, short-term contracts. Jake Peavy, Brandon McCarthy and Ryan Dempster signed two-year deals. Hiroki Kuroda and Dan Haren received one-year deals. The Tigers inked Sanchez for more money than those pitchers made and for more than twice as long to fend off an offer from the Cubs.

Presuming he maintains his form, Sanchez is a plus 2-3 win per season starter. The best-case scenario sees the Tigers paying more than $5 million per win. Basically, the Tigers are committing a Top 10-15 pitcher salary long-term to a pitcher who has never been and will not be a top 10-15 starter.

This signing fits the broader spending pattern of Mike Ilitch, since he turned his attention to the Tigers after the NHL instituted a salary cap. Credit him for being willing to devote resources to build a winner, though its hard to argue the Tigers’ top five payroll could not have been spent more prudently.

However, if you are a Tigers fan for the next couple years, you have a deep rotation (Sanchez is the fourth starter?) and two of the best hitters in baseball in a weak division. It’s not your money.

[Photo via Presswire]

aroundtheweb

42 Responses to “The Detroit Tigers Anibal Sanchez Contract Probably Won’t Provide Good Value”

1
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:17 PM
Dude can’t even afford the “H” at the front of his name, definitely not a good value deal.
2
roastbeast Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:18 PM
dollars to donuts he’s called Ani in his family
3
roastbeast Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:19 PM
the alternative being Bal
4
ms621 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
The Detroit Tigers have re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a five-year $80 million deal. He’s a nice pitcher. It will be a popular move after his excellent postseason, but this is a silly contract. Only four NFL players make more than him.
I don’t disagree with the larger point, but I fail to see how this is an apt comparison.
5
sctrojans Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:24 PM
Can we get a hoops or football post? Guns and baseball make for awful fodder
6
phillymantis915 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:26 PM
Sanchez is a plus 2-3 win per season starter
Which is equivalent to $12-18 assuming $5.9 mil per WAR in salary. If you’re gonna argue using the framework of dollars per WAR, then make sure you use it correctly.
7
ms621 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:27 PM
Which is equivalent to $12-18 assuming $5.9 mil per WAR in salary. If you’re gonna argue using the framework of dollars per WAR, then make sure you use it correctly, like an adult.
Couldn’t resist.
8
Watsonian Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:32 PM
Sanchez is a plus 2-3 win per season starter
Sanchez has 12.0 WAR the last 3 years. It could easily be argued he’s worth close to 20 million a year when you consider he’s only 28.
9
Ty_Webb Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:32 PM
The Detroit Tigers have re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a five-year $80 million deal. He’s a nice pitcher. It will be a popular move after his excellent postseason, but this is a silly contract. Only four NFL players make more than him.
No one in the WNBA makes half this much…
10
Watsonian Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
Basically, the Tigers are committing a Top 10-15 pitcher salary
This is also false. Fangraphs broke this down very well, and he only has to be one of the top 30-40 pitchers over the course of the contract to be worth it.
And that might be too harsh, because that is based on the current value of a win, which is already abobe 5 million. What’s that value going to be in four years? I’m just gonna guess a little higher.
11
The Wayne Fontes Safari Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:34 PM
And the average 2013 Tiger ticket price is still below the median for all of MLB.
12
Ty_Webb Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:38 PM
And the average 2013 Tiger ticket price is still below the median for all of MLB.
for now
13
phillymantis915 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:38 PM
And that might be too harsh, because that is based on the current value of a win, which is already abobe 5 million. What’s that value going to be in four years? I’m just gonna guess a little higher.
Ding ding ding, the inflation affects of superstar contracts is causing the value of a win to go up quite quickly. Hence the reason why smaller market teams try to lock up their best players on the cheap and pre-arb.
14
Ty_Webb Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:39 PM
so Bert Blyleven would be worth $50 million a year in today’s market
15
Ty_Webb Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:42 PM
so if a win is worth $5 million do pitchers with losing records pay the team?
16
Babar 2.0 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:42 PM
Which is equivalent to $12-18 assuming $5.9 mil per WAR in salary. If you’re gonna argue using the framework of dollars per WAR, then make sure you use it correctly.
Detroit is also in that sweet spot of extra wins being more valuable. An extra 2-3 wins for a 72-win or 105-win team is much less valuable than an 88-92 win team.
17
Milk Steak To Go Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:42 PM
Anybody here a bourbon drinker? I’ve got a dilemma – I need a inexpensive, yet decent handle of bourbon. I noramally go with Buffalo Trace, but with another kid on the way, that’ll opnly be for the first roundd or two, then I gotta switch up. My options (as I see them)
BenchMark (same mash bill as BT, jsut younger and aged differently);
Ancient Ancient Age 10 yr;
Very Old Barton;
Heaven Hill 100.
Am I missing anything? Thoughts or recs?
18
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:45 PM
*waves at bulldog*
Thought I had your creepy ass blocked earlier, that’s my bad.
19
ms621 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:48 PM
Milk steak: You should really checkout Bulleit if possible. Very inexpensive but very delicious.
20
Milk Steak To Go Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:49 PM
Bulleit
Oh, I know. Looking for even cheaper like $15-$25 a 1.75.
21
ms621 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:52 PM
Ah I see. Well of the ones you mentioned I’d lean towards Heaven Hill.
22
Milk Steak To Go Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:57 PM
I’ve got Bulleit and Buffalo Trace as my everydays, some Willett Family Estate and Four Roses Single Barrel (tastes like Captian Morgan, but in a good way)as as special occasions. Need a super cheapy to switch off to since the kids are sucking up all my cash (went through 3 handles of Buffalo Trace every week and a half or so last time I had a kid).
23
rondoman Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 4:59 PM
Anyone loving this season of Sunny?
24
Milk Steak To Go Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:02 PM
Anyone loving this season of Sunny?
Haven’t seen last nights, but this season has been great, especially after the last few left a bit to be desired. Love the call backs to old episodes.
25
spencer096 Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:10 PM
Anyone loving this season of Sunny?
very very much so…havent seen last night’s tho.
26
Mike NYC Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:18 PM
There’s been what, close to five hundred people killed in gun violence in Chicago thus far this year? Naturally we don’t care about that in terms of national discourse because it’s just black kids
If only Chicago had tried that only handgun ban before.
Chicago enacted its handgun ban to protect its residents“from the loss of property and injury or death from fire-arms.” The Chicago petitioners and their amici, however, argue that the handgun ban has left them vulnerable to criminals. Chicago Police Department statistics, we are told, reveal that the City’s handgun murder rate has actually increased since the ban was enacted and that Chicago residents now face one of the highest murder rates in the country and rates of otherviolent crimes that exceed the average in comparable cities.
Banning handguns does not solve the problem of “black kids” getting hold of one and fucking shit up. The only thing it does is help put at ease the conscience of liberals who miraculously believe that if we only allowed criminals to have access to (illegal) guns, then the world would be a safer place.
Dumbass.
27
rondoman Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:20 PM
Yeah this season has been awesome.
Last nights episode was hilarious.
Cant believe next week is the season finale already. These 10 episode seasons are way too short.
28
rondoman Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:21 PM
Being a liberal I agree with MikeNYC.
If someone wants to commit a crime using a gun, they will get it.
He was also 20 years old and dont you have to be 21 to buy guns?
29
jbriaz Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 5:36 PM
I agree with Duffy’s analysis, but I think our frame of reference on contracts has to necessarily shift. TV deals and all other sorts of new revenue streams have skyrocketed salaries in the last 12 months. Anibal’s contract may look paltry compared to some others come this time next year.
30
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 6:08 PM
Mike find me where I said gun bans would work here. I said it’s a pipe dream because of how easy it is for criminals and nuts to get access to legally manufactured weapons. I just think it’s crazy to ignore that the ease of getting them legally is tied to where they end up. Maybe fifty years from now with tighter access and focus on the underlying violence issues we can curb it but now? Fucked. Bans work in Britain because they weren’t obsessed with ownership for so long.
And I don’t honestly think Obama has any interest in changing the laws. A hearty lol at the White House petition.
31
rondoman Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 6:32 PM
This contract isnt nearly as bad as Duffy tries to portray it as.
Remember, starting in 2014 each MLB team will be getting an additional 25-30 million in new TV revenue. The time to spend is now before contracts skyrocket.
Spend as though the new TV money is already here, rather than a year away, before the market corrects itself and salaries climb across the board.
32
Cowboy Mike's Old Original Red Hot Ricochet Barbeque Sauce Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 6:49 PM
Also re: the black kids part. I don’t think anyone could argue the media has little interest in making a big deal out of criminal violence in the inner cities across the country. It just seems shitty to me that it takes something like this for people to even start saying “well if not now, then when?”. Even with something like Trayvon Martin which SERIOUSLY GUYS THIS IS THE CAUSE THAT CHANGES THINGS nobody gave a fuck after a few weeks, and I’m sure a shitload of the people talking about their heartfelt condolences going out today won’t think about it again once Psy puts out a new song. Even if absolutely nothing comes from a national discussion about gun violence – and everything connected to it – I would hope at least this finally serves as something to spur that discussion. Otherwise, people really need to stop being causeheads.
33
A.P. Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 7:03 PM
More crappy baseball contracts!
34
roastbeast Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 7:20 PM
Sniff…wild Turkey is as cheap as ive ever gone so cant help ya milksteak
/four kids two pets
//gotta prioritize mate
35
starkweather Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 7:48 PM
Am I missing anything? Thoughts or recs?
If you live near a Trader Joe’s they have some brown liquor mfgd for them under their label that’s not going to make you forget better stuff but isn’t shit, either. It’s in the $10-$15 range
36
starkweather Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 7:51 PM
Basically, the Tigers are committing a Top 10-15 pitcher salary long-term to a pitcher who has never been and will not be a top 10-15 starter.
There are a lot of wrong things in this statement. First, and most annoying to me, how do you know whether Anibal Sanchez will ever be a top 10-15 pitcher? You understand that he was a pretty big name prospect for a long time in Florida, right? He threw a perfect game in his 2nd or 3rd career start, IIRC, his problem has always been consistency. Plenty of pitchers have put together their best seasons at approximately the same point in their careers that Sanchez is at right now.
37
Mike NYC Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 8:06 PM
We’ve had eight mass shootings this year at least and not a goddamn thing is going to change. All it took in Britain was Hungerford and Dunblane, and a few years later gun sales were banned.
What is it you want to “change”, if not that all guns — handguns included — be banned?
Have you ever thought that Europe had lower gun death rates because their inner-cities aren’t infested with the types of gangs wreaking havoc on Chicago, DC, etc.?
38
VladimirCrouton Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 8:17 PM
What is it you want to “change”, if not that all guns — handguns included — be banned?
I’d like a magic wand to instantly make every weapon and bad person on earth to disappear!
/wanking motion
39
Monster is Meth Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 8:39 PM
Fuck it, I’ll re-post it here.
Sorry, should have said hypocritical instead of ironic. NRAheads love the argument that “If he wanted em dead, he’d find a way to do it, with or without a gun.”
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12/14/22-kids-1-adult-injured-in-knife-attack-outside-chinese-school/?test=latestnews
This was recent. But in 2010, they had 20 kids killed and 50 injured. Without a gun.
40
theelninokidd Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 10:30 PM
Good deal for Detroit. $67 million less than Greinke for similar results.
41
theelninokidd Says:
December 14th, 2012 at 10:34 PM
And if you are killing Detroit saying it’s not a good value, you need to devote a whole day’s worth of posts to the awful Angels contracts. Sanchez is a much better deal than Wilson, plus all the guys that will be killing them after age 35.
42
H.E. Pennypacker Says:
December 15th, 2012 at 12:21 PM
Have you ever thought that Europe had lower gun death rates because their inner-cities aren’t infested with the types of gangs wreaking havoc on Chicago, DC, etc.?
we totally should get rid of all poor people and minorities