Miguel Cabrera is Your AL MVP: The Stats Guys Won Out In the End
Miguel Cabrera won the AL MVP voting in a contentious debate that occurred between stat guys and other stat guys. In the end, a majority of the stats guys won. What’s that you say, the stat guys weren’t in favor of Miguel Cabrera?
Everyone is a stat guy in baseball. Regardless of how you choose to couch it, every argument is based on some sort of stat. Did anyone out there watch every play by both players all year long? I doubt it.
The issue is which stats you use, and whether you are consistent in your use, going with whatever the stats that you find most important tell you, or whether you tailor your choice to the stats that happen to bolster the outcome you desire.
The Miguel Cabrera backers pointed to the batting average, runs batted in, and home runs. They pointed to the statistics related to the period of time since a player had led a league in all three of those categories. They did not point to defensive numbers, or to times grounded into double plays. They pointed to playoff appearances, but not win totals.
The Mike Trout backers pointed to WAR, or breaking it down further, his defensive numbers, his highly successful stolen base numbers, and how his offensive numbers weren’t far behind Miguel Cabrera, as Nate Silver did here today.
I went through the history of the Triple Crown last month, where only five men including Cabrera, of the seventeen listed as having accomplished it, were actually celebrated as such. I also went back through similar seasons, finding that those old gruff sportswriter types who didn’t know what WAR was good for actually awarded more MVP seasons to Mike Trout type years than Miguel Cabrera types.
It’s a fascinating juxtaposition, much like how the political parties shift their specific stances on a topic depending on the outcome. Those espousing the virtues of old time baseball and the eye test are actually blindly overlooking the all-around player who stole bases, ran the base paths well, played an important defensive position well, and did a lot of everything offensively.
They are going with the beer league uber-star slugger, who would have been the envy of Billy Beane if he could have afforded to drop him in the middle of his roster in Oakland, where they were willing to overlook defense to get a high on base and slugging guy.
It’s interesting how positions change. In the end, it was the Triple Crown that swung it. The Triple Crown’s history is far less noble than we make it seem, with Ted Williams often getting screwed and the category basically invented by sportswriters trying to point out how much better he was than his Yankee antagonists. Absence does make the heart grow fonder, though.
So in the end, the stats guys who pushed home runs, RBI’s and batting average won out. Miguel Cabrera, 2012 Triple Crown Winner, 2012 MVP, and Future Hall of Famer, congratulations.
[photo via US Presswire]

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66 Responses to “Miguel Cabrera is Your AL MVP: The Stats Guys Won Out In the End”
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November 15th, 2012 at 6:49 PM
/pulls up chair
//cracks beer
///buttons Posey jersey
November 15th, 2012 at 6:49 PM
Booooooo !
/goes back and reads Lisk
November 15th, 2012 at 6:50 PM
I finally have renewed faith in baseball people and BBWAA.
The right guy won.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:50 PM
Baseball is ruined. RUINED!!!
I’m going to be an annoying older guy for a second and say that the more time goes by, the less I care about this sort of thing. Trout is still a great player and will be for the next decade. Congrats to Miggy.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:52 PM
whoever can grab a screengrab of CBS Sports calling him “poser” should probably do it
November 15th, 2012 at 6:52 PM
I don’t like how Mike Trout is being labelled the “sabermetrics guy” as if his “traditional” stats weren’t fucking amazing as well. This shouldn’t have been traditional stats vs saber stats, it should have been a race too close to call based on traditional stats, tipped in Trouts favor by the sabermetrics.
Ben Zobrist is the “sabermetrics” guy. His baseball card stats don’t really tell the full story. His advanced stats do a much better job demonstrating his value.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:53 PM
Six vote though really ? That’s some bull. Not going to lose any sleep over it, and Miggy was awesome this year, but the BBWAA is not as smart as they think they are.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:55 PM
The stat guys are dead! Long live the stat guys!
November 15th, 2012 at 6:57 PM
By “in a contentious debate” I’m assuming you mean “by a big fucking margin”.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:58 PM
Those are not mutually exclusive chief.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:58 PM
That’s not actually a Triple “Crown” they are presenting him. It’s the top of a 15-gallon bottle of Chambord that he drank in one evening.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:58 PM
history was against Trout: Ichiro and Fred Lynn are the only rookies to win MVP; Ichiro played on a team that won 116 games and Lynn played on a first-place team in a year with no slam dunk candidate other than maybe Rod Carew.
that said I expected the voting to be a lot closer. I didn’t think it was the no-brainer decision (for Cabrera or Trout) a lot of people seemed to think it was. I was also hoping for someone to get cutesy and vote for Cano or Verlander. oh well.
and as for the NL, it was more or less Posey’s to lose once McCutchen and the Pirates started to fade.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:58 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pdWAcK6Eh8
November 15th, 2012 at 6:59 PM
The fact that Posey couldn’t even walk 16 or 17 months ago makes his MVP even more amazing.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:01 PM
Not a baseball guy, so there is probably an obvious answer to this. Why does baseball wait so long to announce MVPs? The World Series ended, um, three weeks ago or so and the sports landscape is crammed with NFL, college football, NBA, college hoops, NHL, and what is going to happen to Rick Reilly with his contract*.
*If I remembered how to do a strikethrough in a post, I would have strikedthough (struckthrouh? strikedthroughed?) the last 13 words of the above paragraph.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:02 PM
Is there some kind of best supporting actor award for Austin Jackson’s OBP? Good for Miggy though. He’s been consistently outstanding for a long time.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:02 PM
Are there cases of where a multi-tool guy beat the guy with superior power/slugging ?’s.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:04 PM
oh, and Derek Jeter apparently finished seventh, because he’s easily the seventh best player in the AL.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:07 PM
If there is any prize money associated with the award it should be deposited in Josh Hamilton’s bank account.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:08 PM
Sean Casey is AWESOME!
November 15th, 2012 at 7:09 PM
Marc Topkin (Tampa) had a ballot with Jeter & Soriano on it but no Cano.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:09 PM
Mike Trout should have won as well as Braun.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:09 PM
not counting pitchers winning the award:
Jimmy Rollins, 2007 (Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday)
Ichiro, 2001 (Jason Giambi, Bret Boone)
Barry Larkin, 1995 (Dante Bichette, Mike Piazza)
Rickey Henderson, 1990 (Cecil Fielder)
Robin Yount, 1989 (Ruben Sierra, Fred McGriff)
Willie McGee, 1985 (Pedro Guerrero, Dave Parker)
November 15th, 2012 at 7:14 PM
Major kudos for putting that together in seven minutes.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:22 PM
I cant speak to all those but at least two/three of those had a pretty good consensus (Yount, Henderson, Larkin). I dont recall a dialogue over just 1-2 guys those years. Rollins was expected to win too, no? I cant recall the McGee-Guerrero one I was more of an AL guy.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:25 PM
And aside from Yount all of those guys were in the postseason. Trout had 3 strikes against him: he was a rookie on a non-playoff team in a year somebody else won the TC. The result was a surprise to nobody who is aware of the history of the award.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:27 PM
Garland, heard a bit of Prime Time Sports yesterday, sounds like there’s a bit of excitement about the Blue Jays now. About time one of the Toronto teams took a shot!
November 15th, 2012 at 7:28 PM
If I were a Tigers fan, I’d still be pissed that my team that was a heavy favorite got it’s shit pushed in by the fucking Giants and wouldn’t give a damn about the MVP.
/They don’t call Sean Casey The Mayor for nothing!
November 15th, 2012 at 7:29 PM
Yount was a surprise, Sierra was expected to win. No great candidates that year, Yount was good but nowhere near the level of his ’82 MVP. didn’t lead the league in anything (including WAR). In fact he is the only non-pitcher MVP since 1980 to come from a non-playoff team who didnt lead the league in either WAR, OPS, or RBI.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:32 PM
If I were a Tigers fan, I’d still be pissed that my team that was a heavy favorite got it’s shit pushed in by the fucking Giants and wouldn’t give a damn about the MVP.
Yeah, I’m not really enjoying this MVP as much as I probably should be. Because of the terrible World Series loss, because I thought Trout should have won and I hate that Cabrera has become the poster boy for wrong side of an argument. Also, I was more invested emotionally in Verlander winning the Cy Young. Verlander should have won, but David Price has a great year too and it’s not like Verlander doesn’t get enough recognition, so I guess I’m not really too worked up about it
November 15th, 2012 at 7:33 PM
I had the same thoughts about Larkin but when I looked it up he only had 11 first place votes — Bichette, Piazza, and Greg Maddux split the other 16. also, Yount only had eight first place votes, with Sierra and Cal Ripken (somehow) getting six apiece, and Rickey had 14 first place votes to Fielder’s 10.
as for Rollins, I remember it being a bit more contentious. Holliday was right behind him (with Prince being kind of a distant third, and I don’t know why I had Howard listed on there). it also seemed like voters punished David Wright pretty unfairly for the Mets’ collapse.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:33 PM
I hate the NHL so much right now. By the time this gets settled, the Wings will just be another mediocre team. Fuck parity and the salary cap. If you can’t turn a profit sell your fucking team.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:34 PM
The casual fans are super pumped, which is great. Hopefully that enthusiasm results in more bodies in the seats. It was time to roll the dice on this kind of move. I think the best part of the deal is the timing. Instantly makes Toronto a more attractive destination for free agents and managerial candidates.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:36 PM
Hire Omar. The Jays lineup will be sick. And if Johnson and Drabek can stay healthy that rotation should be stellar.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:37 PM
I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter. A 24 team NHL is my dream. Kill off 8 U.S. based teams, add 2 more Canadian teams and I’m good.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:38 PM
Not sure if anybody knows a site where they show splits, but I recall starting off strong and carrying the Brewers for a while and voters didnt punish him for playing on that particular Brewers team. He was absolutely in the discussion that whole year.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:39 PM
I don’t think Omar is ready for that kind of job. I’d be good with Sandy Alomar Jr but I think they’re looking for someone with managerial experience. How did you feel about Acta when he was in Cleveland? His name has come up a bit.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:41 PM
That would be nice. I’d like to just perhaps kill 2 teams and relocate 2 to Canada. If they insist on a cap. Make the floor like 40 M and the max 70 M. I’m all for the 50/50. But lay off the damn contract rights. Maybe the owners should stop paying the Jiri Hudlers of the world 4 million a damn year.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:42 PM
Acta was a good coach in terms of getting a team ready to break camp and making use of middling talent. Once teams adjutsed he made no countermoves and never liked to challenge his guys much. Lots of long losing streaks.
Hire Acta then fire him at the All-Star break.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:42 PM
He’s a good manager. Can’t blame him for the lack of ownership.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:46 PM
Just hire Cito Gaston again. You know you want to.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:46 PM
You better have a dynamite pitching coach to help Acta.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:49 PM
So how much is Grady coming back for? May as well just trade Choo now then sign Jason shitty Bay.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:52 PM
Never again. I’ve heard a couple of media idiots suggest that they’re trying to drag Torre out of retirement.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:52 PM
Canucks are close to being in a similar position.
The sheer stupidity of this whole mess sometimes makes me wonder if this is some deliberate ploy to contract teams – drive some teams out of business. It makes as much sense as anything else that comes out of their mouths.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:53 PM
Sizemore will go to an AL team where he can play about 120 games 70 OF, 40 DB, 10 sub, and then a month on the DL.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:53 PM
I hear Bobby Valentine is available.
November 15th, 2012 at 7:55 PM
It’s the owners against the owners. Trying to make as much money as possible and wanting the league to save them from themselves.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:04 PM
and Cal Ripken (somehow) getting six apiece
A victory for defense! I think. Isn’t that the year he set the record for consecutive games at SS without an error?
November 15th, 2012 at 8:04 PM
That tiger muskie was beautiful vlad (pic 22)
November 15th, 2012 at 8:13 PM
So the voters got both the AL MVP and AL MoY completely wrong. Incredible.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:14 PM
See also: the 2006 Twins, featuring Cy Young award winner Johan Santana, MVP Justin Morneau, and (would have been) AL ROY Francisco Liriano, who got swept by the goddamned Oakland Athletics.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:15 PM
I think they also expected the players to have caved by now. I know I’ve given up on it for the year, despite Geez’s optimism that they would be playing by Dec. 1.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:17 PM
Here’s Danny Glover with his thorough analysis
November 15th, 2012 at 8:19 PM
If any good comes from that fiasco, I REALLY hope that happens. Get rid of at least 2 teams to start.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:24 PM
I guess nobody cares that Ryan Braun got shafted this year.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:30 PM
how so?
November 15th, 2012 at 8:33 PM
Trout should’ve won. He didn’t. I’m not losing sleep over this. But wait, can anyone tell me what the ratings were for the award show on MLB Network? TBL?
November 15th, 2012 at 8:35 PM
how so?
Because I wanted him to win MVP
November 15th, 2012 at 8:37 PM
Frank Thomas was really good at the baseball
November 15th, 2012 at 8:39 PM
yeah but it’s not like a relief pitcher won it. Posey was damn good this year.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:39 PM
Would be nice, and move a couple more. But it makes too much sense, so won’t happen.
November 15th, 2012 at 9:48 PM
Benjamin Franklin Rodriguez congratulates the BBWAA on making the correct and obvious choice for AL MVP.
November 15th, 2012 at 10:05 PM
best part of this debate is that there was a debate. folks are starting to migrate to advanced stats. might have been years where the TC stats would have negated any discussion
November 16th, 2012 at 12:22 AM
I like how despite what Lisk wrote here the headline on the front page reads “Triple Crown Trumps Stats”
This is silly…it could have gone either way and to suggest otherwise just plays into the side I assumed you’d take (which doesn’t fit your style since Trout wins the eye test due to adding baserunning and defense to his hitting which is something Miggy’s not so good at)
November 16th, 2012 at 9:01 AM
Forget first and second place, I’m more interested in the guy who voted Raul Ibanez 10th. Raul Ibanez?! One writer had Jim Johnson 3rd, Ibanez 10th and left Cano, Jones, Verlander, and Price off the ballot.