Comments on: Deferring the Coin Flip: Maybe It Is Not a Toss Up Decision

By: The Professor

The Professor — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 21:59:36 +0000

In addition to the advantages listed above, there might be another factor. Better teams are more confident and may be more willing to give up the chance to score first. On the other hand, teams that suck have less confidence and: a) may be worried about falling behind early; and/or b) are more likely to feel like they need to make “an early statement.”

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:47:55 +0000

The p-value is 3%, meaning it is statistically significant at the 5% level

Hey Lisk, how did you come up with that value? Did you use a Chi square?

By: spencer096

spencer096 — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:40:43 +0000

p-values? you don’t…ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

/uncalled for

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:39:01 +0000

I just had a really interesting talk at lunch about p-values (false positive on null data), false-discovery and likelihood ratios… I’ll spare the details, but apparently p-values aren’t so great any more, and you need even greater statistical computation to really determine probability of significance.

By: Wide Word of Sport (?)

Wide Word of Sport (?) — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 20:35:58 +0000

The p-value is 3%, meaning it is statistically significant at the 5% level, the most commonly accepted value for statistical significance.

Nice job.

In the first half, teams are more likely to waste this possession than in the second half.

What about just that 2nd half possessions are more valuable because you can make adjustments? Is that a thing?

By: HtownHacker

HtownHacker — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:51:20 +0000

That also happened, I think in overtime, in a windy AFL championship game where someone won the coin toss and said something like “We want to kick to that end.” and the ref had to take that as a desire to kick off.

By: s1rweeze

s1rweeze — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:48:28 +0000

2) things move fast in a game, and sometimes you miss a strategy point. I planned out my start, by calling certain plays in sequence, to see how the defense reacted.

I really miss the Jeff Garcia/Jon Gruden days in Tampa when Garcia would fuck up all of Gruden’s meticulous planning every game. “Would you shut the fuck up and quit audibling all the time, Mr. Hero?”

By: Chief

Chief — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:48:28 +0000

They need to make another ‘NFL Head Coach’ game.

By: spencer096

spencer096 — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:47:33 +0000

i think it’s also fair to say that it was easier to script plays in walsh’s era when defenses weren’t throwing exotic pre-snap looks and zone-blitzes in there all the time.

By: starkweather

starkweather — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:46:44 +0000

Our team wins the flip and he says “we want to kick”, thinking we would automatically receive in the second half.

That happened to Miami once a long time ago. I want to say it was in the Butch Davis years and it cost them the game (maybe one of the Washington games?) but I am prepared to be wrong about that.

By: starkweather

starkweather — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:45:18 +0000

That second 3) better be good, Lisk. You’re killing me with the cliffhanger

By: Milk Steak To Go

Milk Steak To Go — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:45:02 +0000

I always thought scripting plays was more about seeing what looks the defense would give you against various formations/motions. I also don’t think they’re set in stone (except may 1st and 2nd down) – no Bama X-Cross 34 Lead Dive on 3rd and 8 – the coach had a few plays for distance.

By: HtownHacker

HtownHacker — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:44:51 +0000

I really think Kubiak uses it not just as Lisk described (to see what they do), but equally to affect what they do (back the safeties off, etc.) in addition to just trying to exploit some hole he’s seen.

By: spencer096

spencer096 — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:44:34 +0000

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

liked em braj.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:44:07 +0000

Oh, and I would say also that in the heat of the moment, you may actually fall back on tendencies, always throw left on third down, always go to your favorite play, whatever.

Scripting allows you to self-scout ahead of time and consciously plan to counteract some of your own tendencies under pressure, and do so in a way that shows the opponent something different that you then can go to your favorite call later, and it doesn’t seem patterned.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

By: spencer096

spencer096 — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:43:46 +0000

scripting plays also improves execution since there’s less time thinking about adjustments…perfect execution will beat the perfectly designed defense just about every time.

By: cleet

cleet — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:43:26 +0000

Did you follow him home that night and flog him in his sleep with socks full of bars of soap a la Full Metal Jacket?

No, we just mocked him mercilessly.

By: Jason Lisk

Jason Lisk — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:41:26 +0000

I’ve never understood scripted plays…I know Bill Walsh did it, and he was a mastermind of sorts. However, down and distance always seems to be more important than the script.

Because I am now an expert based on being offensive coordinator for flag football, who semi-scripted his early plays, I would say:

1) plays may also be scripted for scenarios and a coach may not always follow a straight “this is play 7″ plan– I often went in knowing that I wanted to run certain plays early, but also had a game plan for which plays I would run in 3rd or 4th down situations.

2) things move fast in a game, and sometimes you miss a strategy point. I planned out my start, by calling certain plays in sequence, to see how the defense reacted. Off tackle run to the up back, followed by fake off tackle run, play action pass behind it, followed by fake off tackle run, counter run other direction to deep back. I would then see how they were defending those to use in my play calling going forward.

3) scripting allows you to game plan areas of emphasis early in a game.

By: s1rweeze

s1rweeze — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:41:14 +0000

Couple years ago in flag football league, this dude on our team went to do the coin flip because our captain was a little late showing up. Our team wins the flip and he says “we want to kick”, thinking we would automatically receive in the second half. We ended up kicking off in the first and second half.

Did you follow him home that night and flog him in his sleep with socks full of bars of soap a la Full Metal Jacket?

By: Jim Harbaugh Scramble

Jim Harbaugh Scramble — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:40:09 +0000

take the ball in NFL. Defer in college.