So those lie about where I would have thought. I’m honestly surprised ToP is that high a correlation, I would have expected a weaker association in college football. The rest are all fairly strong. If someone is really curious, you can run a regression and see how well you can predict the outcome based on those four variables. I’d imagine pretty well…

Add some dong pics, some guesses about where media types may end up 6 months from now, some murder detective work, and a bikini shot of a hockey players daughter, and you may get someone who works here willing to write it for you.

Win% and ToP: 0.26
Win% and TO Margin: 0.53
Win% and 1st Downs: 0.39
Win% and 3rd Down Defense: 0.43

So those lie about where I would have thought. I’m honestly surprised ToP is that high a correlation, I would have expected a weaker association in college football. The rest are all fairly strong. If someone is really curious, you can run a regression and see how well you can predict the outcome based on those four variables. I’d imagine pretty well…

Hey TBL, I’ll give you my data if you’ll build a coherent post around it.

wrong Jason, bro…you gotta talk to Lisk about that kind of post.

Without looking it up, I’d guess total first downs on offense, and 3rd down % on defense would be much better predictors than TOP

Why yes, I will look that up for you.

Hey TBL, I’ll give you my data if you’ll build a coherent post around it.

I think it’s important for reporters to be better versed in math, statistics, logic, economics, etc. A lot of this stuff isn’t all that complicated, so a little bit might go a long way. If I were running a gigantic news organization, I’d mandate that my reports take a few math and stats courses.

/gives Nate Silver an internet kiss

I don’t think coaches should concern themselves with winning TOP

Nah, too much correlation, not enough causation to worry about ahead of time. That would be like saying “teams that rush 30 times always win” so you just call handoffs on your first 30 plays.

It’s not very important for Oregon until they face a team that can stop them defensively, but it’s silly to dismiss it entirely.

I think it’s important for reporters to be better versed in math, statistics, logic, economics, etc. A lot of this stuff isn’t all that complicated, so a little bit might go a long way. If I were running a gigantic news organization, I’d mandate that my reports take a few math and stats courses.

My sense is that Duffy is more mathematically literate than you think

You’re giving him far more credit than I would. Especially considering the supporting evidence that follows, and the ‘by itself’ thrown in there.

By itself, ToP does have meaning, just not as much as it would within context.

Unless you were Duffy.

My sense is that Duffy is more mathematically literate than you think and more so than some other bloggers I can think of. I took his “without descending into nerd-snark, TOP means nothing” comment to mean that he thinks it has some minor mathematical predictive value. Maybe I misread it.

Stopping Oregon is really tough, winning TOP means you don’t have to try and stop them as many times.

Yeah. But that is a specific case. I’m just saying that in general and in absence of any other information, if you have to bet your life on a game either 1) based on a coin flip or 2) based on ToP, you’d pick ToP. Unless you were Duffy.

Final Score

I greatly enjoy the TV commentators and color guys who at some point pull out the line, “Well, if so-and-so wants to beat so-and-so, they’re gonna have to outscore them.”

/ Palmface

//unabashed homer

D’oh!

Obviously you still have to score points when you have the ball and get stops on defense. Stopping Oregon is really tough, winning TOP means you don’t have to try and stop them as many times.

Final Score

/captain obvious’d

ToP and Scoring Offense -0.07 (slightly negative)
ToP and Scoring Defense -0.33 (fairly strongly negative)
ToP and RPI Rank -.19 (meaning greater time of possession = better RPI rank)

Other than that, spot on, Duffy.

ToP has little correlation to scoring offense, but significant (negative, obviously) correlation to scoring defense. I don’t have the list of W-L records, but I assume that’s enough to at least be somewhat predictive, even if not in the specific case of Oregon.

/Duffy voted for Miggy Cabrera for MVP

I saw that and read it. I read it up. I can’t pretend to actually know the game well enough to swallow that pill, however. I’ll stick to fast guys doing stuff I can understand, thank you very much.