Chip Kelly Thinks Your Time of Possession Questions Are Silly
A reporter asked Chip Kelly about time of possession. He responded with the appropriate amount of levity, then shut him down with precise stats from a game that took place in 2010.
Without descending into nerd-snark, time of possession, by itself, means nothing. Let’s say you are given one stat from next week’s game: Stanford holds the ball for 40 minutes. Predict the outcome based on that. Did Stanford have its way with Oregon, sustaining drives down the field and slowing down the game? Did Stanford get boat-raced up and down the field with Oregon scoring too fast to hold possession? The possession time provides no useful information for determining the outcome.
Looking at national time of possession rankings. Kansas (15th) and Kansas State (16th) are one second per game apart on possession time. Those teams rank 106th and 10th respectively in yards per play offense. Oregon ranks 98th and generally ranks at or near the bottom. What matters is what a team does with the ball, not how long they hold it.

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86 Responses to “Chip Kelly Thinks Your Time of Possession Questions Are Silly”
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November 14th, 2012 at 1:21 PM
Chip Kelly will be the coach of the Chiefs next year!
BOOK IT BABY!
November 14th, 2012 at 1:21 PM
gary patterson thinks this is bullshit.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:22 PM
Let’s say you are given one stat from next week’s game
I’ll take most points.
Kansas (15th)
The Notre Dame coaching failure does like to use all of the play clock. Helps keep the opposing score down. Sometimes.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:23 PM
Or the Eagles or Browns. The NCAA hammer is coming. Get out while you can Chipples.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:25 PM
Does not matter. Once he realizes how fast players are in the NFL, he will snake his way back to the NCAA.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:27 PM
7 second possessions
Dantoni pats kelly on the head
November 14th, 2012 at 1:27 PM
I hope he actually stays in the NCAA. His offense is fun to watch.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:28 PM
(insert any stat here), by itself, means nothing.
otherwise, good post, Duff.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:28 PM
oregon media, sans canzano (as evidenced with his colleen belotti story), is just a total lapdog of the university.
bless their little hearts.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:30 PM
What should they be criticizing?
November 14th, 2012 at 1:30 PM
The fascination with ToP must stem from the days the powerhouse schools wanted to run as few plays as necessary because they were just so much more talented than the other teams they wanted to limit the chance for something crazy to happen.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:33 PM
down with ToP. Up with PPP (points per possesion)
November 14th, 2012 at 1:33 PM
Seattle seems like the pipeline for coaches to duck out of NCAA sanctions and go 8-8 every year
/Pete Carroll agrees
//so does Dennis Erickson
November 14th, 2012 at 1:37 PM
i enjoy wishbone offense
November 14th, 2012 at 1:38 PM
really? hey jason, might be a good time to do a cleaning of posters.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:38 PM
Any duck getting invited to the NYAC?
November 14th, 2012 at 1:39 PM
by itself, it means how long the team had the ball for.
what matters is a variety of different factors being used to support a theory. TOP doesnt matter when youre facing a bunch of overmatched cupcakes, agreed…but when you face a team that’s your equal and it’s not nearly as easy to do ‘what you do with the ball?’
hard to put up 70 with your high pace/possession offense when you run 2/3 the plays the plodding team does no matter how well you execute when you have it. esp when you don’t have a defense capable of getting off the field…
granted, there aren’t a lot of teams with a defense to stop oregon’s…but this whole idea of pace is simply a different way of doing it, not a better one.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:40 PM
not seeing how this is all that much different from oklahoma and oregon running as many plays as possible because they’re more talented than the other teams, they want to limit the chance fo something crazy to happen.
you prefer a knife to skin a cat, i prefer a potato peeler…in the end, the cat’s skinned.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:43 PM
maybe, but your method causes a lot of the hair to fall out. gross.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
i use the potato peeler because im a sick fuck and like to torture things…in this metaphor, think wisconsin vs. indiana. hold em down and feel em squirm. the knife’s too quick.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
Id use a planer
November 14th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
Not really.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
45% of commenters agree with this
November 14th, 2012 at 1:45 PM
YES REALLY.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:46 PM
anyways, whatever. urban meyer.
/swoons
November 14th, 2012 at 1:48 PM
by itself, this stat means nothing.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:49 PM
Not really.
YES REALLY.
What do you reaaaally do with the potato peeler? Cause you can’t skin a cat with a potato peeler. Trust me. I know. Oh, boy. Do I ever.
/PTSD kicks in
//cries
November 14th, 2012 at 1:51 PM
Good job. Good effort.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:54 PM
There are probably less than 5 in the whole country right now that have any chance of stopping it. We can say “well, this won’t work against a great d-line” blah blah blah and it hasn’t (notably the OSU game Spencer won’t let go and Auburn title game) The fact is that great d-lines to stop it don’t exist so constantly bringing up the small handful of times teams were equipped to stop it is meaningless. Oregon has a 95 percent chance to never even face those teams. Saying Oregon faces cupcakes all the time is a little much. Which Big 10 team this year is stopping Oregon? Which Big 12 team? Which Pac 12 team? Which ACC/Big East/other team? I’ll give you a couple in the SEC, but that’s about it. And the SEC’s best team just got run over against a similar version of this offense.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:55 PM
they don’t exist in the pac-12, that’s for sure…in the SEC? different story.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
What should they be criticizing?
really? hey jason, might be a good time to do a cleaning of posters.
you looking to shower with Babar?
November 14th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
LSU would beat Oregon.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
When Oregon plays a team that can do this in the first half:
Oregon: 1 minute TD drive
Opponent: 9 minute TD drive
Oregon: 1 minute TD drive
Opponent: 9 minute TD drive
Oregon 1 minute TD drive
Opponent: 9 minute TD drive
HALFTIME
We’ll see how much statistics matter in the 2nd half. SEC teams beat Oregon because they don’t have to get in the track meet. They just wear their ass down.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
id give ND a chance…alabama would too bc…
…oregon doesn’t have the OL quality that aTm has.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:57 PM
I just hope he’s not a bath guy.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:58 PM
oregon’s a national championship caliber team, right? so why is it that big of a deal to compare them to other elite teams (of which, they’ve never beaten one)?
November 14th, 2012 at 1:58 PM
They got beat because aTm has a good D line and McCarron wasn’t perfect.
November 14th, 2012 at 1:59 PM
after that one asshole’s post last night I can honestly say I hope aTm and Johnny Football suck for eternity…
/need more bonfires
//too soon?
November 14th, 2012 at 2:02 PM
after that one asshole’s post last night I can honestly say I hope aTm and Johnny Football suck for eternity…
That was glorious. That was every aTm fan (except Urinal Mint) wrapped up into one post.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:07 PM
not being a message board veteran, i was impressed with AtM fan’s writing. bellicose yet elegant.
i expected meatball language with misspellings at the least
November 14th, 2012 at 2:09 PM
Believe it or not, aTm is actually a pretty good school.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:09 PM
So number 4 Stanford with the 1 pick at QB and that finished in the top 5 in rush defense isn’t elite enough? Oh they play in the Pac 12 so they don’t count. Bring on PURDUE!!!
So the same ND team that gave up 160 yards rushing to Pitt in regulation is stopping Oregon? Come on. I know you hate them, but at least give them some credit.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:10 PM
does bellicose mean douche nozzle?
/knows what bellicose means
//duffy’d
November 14th, 2012 at 2:12 PM
i stand corrected.
i did give them credit…i said there are like no teams that have a defense capable of going toe to toe with it. outside of LSU and bama, i could see ND giving them a tough time.
pitt doesn’t run an offense like oregon’s…michigan’s is similar in a window-dressing fashion and ND held em to 3 ypc.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:12 PM
The reason Chip Kelly would leave is b/c he has expressed interest in jobs. He contacted Tampa Bay last year. He contacted a few others. He’s the one reaching out.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:13 PM
I’m talking about their defense. They could and should have won the game based on Alabama’s offense playing better but their defense got run over for 29 points with a missed XP and missed FG in there. They gave up 217 yards of offense in the 1st quarter and 127 yards in the 4th.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:15 PM
aTm’s got a fairly beastly OL, and that’s underselling it.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:15 PM
Rick Pitino wishes he could last that long
November 14th, 2012 at 2:16 PM
Notre Dame vs. Oregon is actually an awesome sounding game.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:16 PM
link.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:17 PM
htown i believe it. just the way kc res was describing the guy i expected mouthbreather communication
November 14th, 2012 at 2:17 PM
I think this is completely and utterly incorrect. I’d be absolutely shocked if T.O.P. isn’t a positive indicator of game success. While it may not be perfect, or even very good, if it correctly identifies the winning team 55% of the time (versus a coin flip at 50%) it actually does have predictive value. I can only assume your state-school education didn’t afford you a proper mathematical education.
/profuse apology to follow if I’m wrong
November 14th, 2012 at 2:18 PM
We can play this game all day. Michigan had 3 YPC against Nebraska. A Nebraska defense that got steamrolled by UCLA. I think we can say Michigan’s offense isn’t that good or even anywhere on the level of Oregon. Maybe same schemes, but definitely not same talent level. Anywhere.
I hate that I’m sticking up for Oregon, but I feel comparing them continually to OSU and Auburn games is outlandish.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:20 PM
What, you aren’t impressed with a QB who runs around like an ass for 5 seconds before checking down to the equipment manager?
November 14th, 2012 at 2:21 PM
Allegedly he was gone to Tampa. But backed out at the last moment because he was concerned about the Oregon kids or some other bullshit reason.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
i stand corrected.
god i admire you
/poon’d
November 14th, 2012 at 2:23 PM
wallace…i agree we could do this all day and not get anywhere, so lets just quit, especially considering my overall point was simply “there are a bunch of different ways to win football games, oregon’s is different than most, but TOP is still has SOME meaning.”
also, fuck oregon.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:25 PM
the real crime is that none of the oregon players are being considered for the heisman seriously. the qb or barner. no, instead we get soft-focus humanity like teo or cool nicknames who beat one power but fail against two others
top three
klein (as it should be)
teo (media)
now manziel (media)
November 14th, 2012 at 2:27 PM
also, stats.
/his numbers are preposterous
November 14th, 2012 at 2:30 PM
is Manziel really problematic, though? He’s pretty damn good. T’eo is sort of media creation but it’s not like he’s a shitty player. I’d like to see that freshman RB at La. Tech get some publicity but I wouldn’t say he “deserves” it. The problem with Oregon players is, as I’ve said before, they seem like cogs in the system instead of drivers of it. Mariota can be a legit candidate but for this year it really hurts them that they’ve got 2 candidates right now and another guy that was an early season candidate. It’s like they cancel each other out
November 14th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
htown i believe it. just the way kc res was describing the guy i expected mouthbreather communication Joe
They (except for Mint) are too smart for their own good.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:33 PM
the real crime is that none of the oregon players are being considered for the heisman seriously. the qb or barner
Pretty sure I’ve seen Barner’s name a few places, Sportscenter being one of them
November 14th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
For the record, I will be entirely OK with it if Marqise Lee ends up winning it, even if he is at USC and it means the Trojans win three in a row to close out the season
November 14th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
I just looked at actual stats. of the 59 FBS teams that have a Time of Possession greater than 30:00, 41 of them have a positive point differential (score more than they give up).
November 14th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
I’m pushing that La. Tech center as the truly worthy Heisman candidate. The one who calls the plays for the offense.
/ Linked last week, too lazy to find it again
November 14th, 2012 at 2:38 PM
If he helps USC beat ND, I will give him all my votes.
/ Don’t actually have any votes
November 14th, 2012 at 2:39 PM
/team braxton miller for heisman
//unabashed homer
November 14th, 2012 at 2:42 PM
I’m pushing that La. Tech center as the truly worthy Heisman candidate. The one who calls the plays for the offense.
I saw that and read it. I read it up. I can’t pretend to actually know the game well enough to swallow that pill, however. I’ll stick to fast guys doing stuff I can understand, thank you very much.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:43 PM
So far:
ToP has little correlation to scoring offense, but significant (negative, obviously) correlation to scoring defense. I don’t have the list of W-L records, but I assume that’s enough to at least be somewhat predictive, even if not in the specific case of Oregon.
/Duffy voted for Miggy Cabrera for MVP
November 14th, 2012 at 2:47 PM
Correlation between
ToP and Scoring Offense -0.07 (slightly negative)
ToP and Scoring Defense -0.33 (fairly strongly negative)
ToP and RPI Rank -.19 (meaning greater time of possession = better RPI rank)
Other than that, spot on, Duffy.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:47 PM
There is a stat that, by itself, can tell you the outcome of the game every single time:
Final Score
/captain obvious’d
November 14th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
TOP can have some meaning. If you control the ball for a significan majority of the game you limit the opportunities of the opposing offense which puts a bigger premium on execution for them.
Obviously you still have to score points when you have the ball and get stops on defense. Stopping Oregon is really tough, winning TOP means you don’t have to try and stop them as many times.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
D’oh!
November 14th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
I greatly enjoy the TV commentators and color guys who at some point pull out the line, “Well, if so-and-so wants to beat so-and-so, they’re gonna have to outscore them.”
/ Palmface
November 14th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
Or it is / Facepalm ?
November 14th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
Yeah. But that is a specific case. I’m just saying that in general and in absence of any other information, if you have to bet your life on a game either 1) based on a coin flip or 2) based on ToP, you’d pick ToP. Unless you were Duffy.
November 14th, 2012 at 2:58 PM
My sense is that Duffy is more mathematically literate than you think and more so than some other bloggers I can think of. I took his “without descending into nerd-snark, TOP means nothing” comment to mean that he thinks it has some minor mathematical predictive value. Maybe I misread it.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:01 PM
You’re giving him far more credit than I would. Especially considering the supporting evidence that follows, and the ‘by itself’ thrown in there.
By itself, ToP does have meaning, just not as much as it would within context.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
WWOS: I am currently viewing the Nate Silver chat on the other network. Anyway, his last response was this:
November 14th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
I don’t think coaches should concern themselves with winning TOP. If you’re an uptempo team, it is pointless. Oregon shouldn’t try to slow down their pace just so Stanford doesn’t win TOP. If you aren’t an uptempo team, winning TOP is just the byproduct of getting first downs on offense and getting stops on defense. Without looking it up, I’d guess total first downs on offense, and 3rd down % on defense would be much better predictors than TOP
November 14th, 2012 at 3:12 PM
ToP vs winning percentage has a 0.26 correlation. A weak-moderate positive association for time of possession and winning record. Not necessarily causative, but correlated strongly enough that you would make a lot of money if you knew the ToP ahead of time and bet on that team each game.
It’s not very important for Oregon until they face a team that can stop them defensively, but it’s silly to dismiss it entirely.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
/gives Nate Silver an internet kiss
Nah, too much correlation, not enough causation to worry about ahead of time. That would be like saying “teams that rush 30 times always win” so you just call handoffs on your first 30 plays.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
Why yes, I will look that up for you.
Hey TBL, I’ll give you my data if you’ll build a coherent post around it.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:18 PM
wrong Jason, bro…you gotta talk to Lisk about that kind of post.
November 14th, 2012 at 3:24 PM
FYI: magnitudes of correlation for
Win% and ToP: 0.26
Win% and TO Margin: 0.53
Win% and 1st Downs: 0.39
Win% and 3rd Down Defense: 0.43
So those lie about where I would have thought. I’m honestly surprised ToP is that high a correlation, I would have expected a weaker association in college football. The rest are all fairly strong. If someone is really curious, you can run a regression and see how well you can predict the outcome based on those four variables. I’d imagine pretty well…
November 14th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
Add some dong pics, some guesses about where media types may end up 6 months from now, some murder detective work, and a bikini shot of a hockey players daughter, and you may get someone who works here willing to write it for you.