Back to back rough weeks dropped us below .500 ATS to 26-27-1 on the season. Consider these at your own peril.

Oregon (-7.5) at USC: Oregon’s offense is explosive. Triple-digits were realistic in multiple games had they kept playing. The key this season, though, has been their defense, which FEI ranks higher than Alabama. USC has some ridiculously talented players. The Trojans are soft. They don’t have the depth to punch the gas for 60 minutes. They don’t take care of the ball (94th nationally in turnovers). They rank dead last in FBS in penalty yards per game. Big Balls Chip will want revenge for last year’s loss. We like the Ducks, big.

Arizona State (+4) at Oregon State: Oregon State needs to pass to win. They are going to back up quarterback Cody Vaz, Markus Wheaton may be limited and Arizona State has a top ten pass defense. ASU has been better on the road this season. Oregon State has been worse at home. The Sun Devils will be looking for a better performance after a disappointing loss to UCLA. They may be a better team.

West Virginia (-5) vs. TCU: The Mountaineers have had a bye week to regroup after two humbling losses. The offense should get rolling against a TCU defense vulnerable to long pass plays (allowed 10 of 40 or more yards this season). The Horned Frogs have also been pedestrian on offense without Casey Pachall. Bounce back win for West Virginia at home. Do it for Baby Holgo.

Ole Miss (+14) at Georgia: Ole Miss has been undervalued all season. They are 7-1 against the spread. Hugh Freeze had this team competitive against Alabama. The Rebels nearly picked off a good Texas A&M team. We’ve seen Georgia dominate. We’ve seen them do it for 60 minutes once this season. Too many points.

Syracuse (+4) at Cincinnati: Cincinnati is 5-2, but has played two FCS teams. Their best win is either Pitt reeling on a short week or a narrow neutral site game against Virginia Tech. Syracuse was competitive in their four losses. They are 3-1 in Big East play. Ryan Nassib troubles the Bearcat defense.

Colorado (+27.5) vs. Stanford: Can Stanford cover a 28-point spread? The Cardinal offense has put up more than 21 points just twice in eight games. They are auditioning a new quarterback. They have tended to play up or down to their level of competition this season. They keep things tight on the road. Colorado is terrible, but if they can put up 7-10 points they have a good chance of covering.

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