Could Alabama Hang With the Worst Team in the NFL?
No.
Oh, you wanted more than that. I tried to ignore Spurrier’s comments because, well, even in this week of storms, I didn’t think it was worth talking about. When Spurrier said that Alabama could compete and beat the bottom of the NFL, well, it was goofy.
Then, we got a point spread on such a matchup: 24 point underdog for Alabama against the worst team in the NFL (Jacksonville, according to Vegas).
Well, that’s something we can look at. Just how big of an underdog Alabama could be.
Once upon a time, College All-Stars used to play the NFL champion in a preseason exhibition game, something that happened for over forty years. At a time when the professionals were not really true professionals, and plenty of stars did not go on to play in the NFL, they were competitive. The College All-Stars went 3-5-2 in the first ten contests. The last time they won was in 1963, with a draft class that included 16 future first team all pros and four hall of famers.
The final decade of the contest—as professionalism and expansion to the AFL opened more jobs, and the historic black colleges contributed more players, and the game increased in popularity—featured an averaged result of 25.2 to 8.5 for the defending NFL champs.
The average “SRS” rating of those defending champs the season after was +9.7 points above league average. Taking our margin of victory, that would mean the college all-star teams in the late 60′s and 70′s (Many of which had plenty of future Hall of Famers on those All-Star Rosters), were about 7 points below league average.
That would have equated to a 28% winning percentage in the NFL if the College All-Star teams would have competed week in and week out. That’s 4.6 wins in a 16 game schedule. Does that sound about right? It might be a bit high, as professionalism and the average age of all-pros, and percentage of young pro bowlers has gone down over time. It would probably depend on the quarterback situation, but I would put a typical College All-Star Team built of the top draft prospects at 3.5 to 4 wins on average their rookie year.
It would be higher this year with Luck or Griffin at quarterback, lower when the choice was JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn. Such a fictional team would feature a handful of pro bowl caliber players, 10-15 other legitimate starters of at least average quality, and a lot of holes that would be exploited, occupied by replacement level starters.
Of course, that comparison was NFL champ to College All-Star Team, not NFL doormat to one single college team. Spurrier’s statement only holds water if Alabama is the equivalent of a college all-star team in most years. Then, yes, they could compete.
I don’t think it’s obvious that this is even one of the best Alabama teams, or one of the best college teams of the last two decades, even though Alabama has been my choice at #1 all year.
Let’s look at the 2009-2012 draft classes from just Alabama. Which would be the equivalent of doing the same exercise four years ago with one school that would win two national titles.
The quarterback would be Greg McElroy. Woof. A.J. McCarron is McElroy lite, so I don’t see that helping having at best a third string option as the clear starter.
Julio Jones and Trent Richardson would provide some star power. After that, there is literally nothing to take the pressure off Jones in the passing game. Take the worst NFL receiving group and they would be way better than anyone else on a fictional Alabama group after Jones.
The line would have some NFL caliber starters (Andre Smith, James Carpenter, and Antoine Caldwell) but would have a hole at a tackle position and center. We’ve seen lines with a few weak points get exploited big time. The offense would have no options behind Jones, and Richardson would be doing it behind the worst line in the league, and with a third string quarterback.
Defense would have some good pieces as well, but depth would be an issue. Dre Kirkpatrick hasn’t been on the field for Cincinnati yet, and a fictional Alabama wouldn’t be able to overcome any losses to a starter. The defense would have five to six pretty good starters, then issues that would be exploited regularly by NFL teams.
The difference between a College All-Star team and Alabama is probably greater than the difference between the New York Giants and a College All-Star team. 24 points? I think that’s probably close, though I would take the Jacksonville Jaguars or Kansas City Chiefs. If we had a stand alone game with everyone healthy, maybe it’s that, because at least it’s not college style mismatches with 45+ point lines, since a few players on Alabama may be better than their counterparts. Any injuries, though, and it just becomes even greater and starts to climb that way.
[photo via US Presswire]

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102 Responses to “Could Alabama Hang With the Worst Team in the NFL?”
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November 1st, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Jacksonville, according to Vegas
I haven’t seen the Jags play, but it is hard to imagine any team being worse than the Chiefs.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:17 PM
Universally agreed ad nauseam that No
November 1st, 2012 at 1:19 PM
Universally agreed ad nauseam that No
Agreed. Has anyone ever answered this with a yes? I like the angle Lisk took with the point spread. I had never thought of what the point spread would be.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:19 PM
I can’t dispute your logic, but my gut says ‘Bama at home against a dysfunctional Kansas City/Jax/SD team would be closer than we expect. Especially if the NFL team had a short week AND ‘Bama had 10 days or so to prepare.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:20 PM
absolutely not.
paraphrasing a quote on shutdown corner at yahoo (forget who said it) but bama’s probably got 5-6 guys who are league average and above starters on the whole team. i think it was pete carroll in taht same article who said the biggest difference would be on the lines…technique and physical maturity are a huge difference.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:20 PM
Lisk i usually never ask fantasy fb advice but…
Where does desean jackson vs saints rank this week compared to other wr matchups?
November 1st, 2012 at 1:21 PM
How about that 1-15 Jets team coached by Rich Kotite with Glenn Foley at QB? Bama would have a chance at covering the spread, I would think…
November 1st, 2012 at 1:21 PM
i wonder if some of these WR’s in college would even be able to get off the line against NFL DB’s.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:21 PM
no fucking way.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:22 PM
There are still a great deal of Alabama starters that wouldn’t sniff a starting job in the NFL, right?
November 1st, 2012 at 1:23 PM
So, this must mean the Lions are going to roll this Sunday?
/take the Jags + 4
November 1st, 2012 at 1:23 PM
No.
Good answer, good answer.
There are still a great deal of Alabama starters that wouldn’t sniff a starting job in the NFL, right?
they might have 15 pros starting. But even Kansas City has 21 pro caliber players starting.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:24 PM
here’s the article.
rob rang offers a counterpoint, but rob rang is kind of stupid, so i didn’t bother.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:24 PM
That 01 Miami team could’ve beaten the 0-16 Lions. It might’ve taken 50 tries, but they could’ve beaten an NFL team.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:24 PM
I saw him mention this in an interview this week as well (probably the same one, can’t remember). Said skilled players might be able to keep up somewhat, but no way the lines could compete.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:26 PM
even then…think about how long it takes skill players to refine their game? even for the best of em. these kids are that raw going up against pros that know how to exploit it.
mentally, physically…no match.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:26 PM
And if Bama’s TD’s counted for 15 points.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:27 PM
rob rang offers a counterpoint, but rob rang is kind of stupid,
if I bought a pet orange ape in Indonesia, I’d name it Rob Rang.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:27 PM
even then…think about how long it takes skill players to refine their game? even for the best of em.
Exhibit A: Julio Jones sucked last year.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:27 PM
They’d probably sack the Cardinals QB 7 or 8 times, which would keep them close. I’d put the house on Bama losing by less than 14 to the Cardinals.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:27 PM
Yes.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:28 PM
even then…think about how long it takes skill players to refine their game? even for the best of em. these kids are that raw going up against pros that know how to exploit it.
mentally, physically…no match.
they’d also play NFL secondary rules for contact, so there would be a lot of whistles on that grabby Alabama secondary.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:28 PM
No.
Yes.
I hadn’t thought of that. I’d like to change my vote.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:28 PM
Better hope for some sack/fumbles because Bama’s offense would not get past midfield the entire game.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:29 PM
i wonder if some of these WR’s in college would even be able to get off the line against NFL DB’s.
That right there is the biggest issue – or the catchword: separation.
Multiple INTs make this game a rout and the NFL team covers the spread every time. Not even close.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:30 PM
Btw I love that this is LSU-Bama week and we’re talking about Bama vs. an NFL team. Shouldn’t be hard to motivate the boys this week, Les.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:30 PM
i dunno if you read that article, but i think at this point, we should probably show rang’s comments next to pete carroll’s (i.e. someone who knows very well first hand).
first…rang.
what say you, carroll?
November 1st, 2012 at 1:30 PM
Better hope for some sack/fumbles because Bama’s offense would not get past midfield the entire game.
Warmack wouldn’t block anybody all game, because they’d scheme it so he was just standing there wondering what to do while the D lineman on his face moved backwards. And Arizona would sack Alabama until Alabama stopped trying to throw.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:30 PM
See! You know what I mean! Yippee!
Ooops, gotta go. In other news in my delusional world, Halle Berry is coming by later to watch the Chargers game.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:31 PM
i dunno if you read that article, but i think at this point
I had never once heard of Rob Rang until you just mentioned him, but that’s a good name for an orangutan.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:32 PM
Wouldn’t shock me if they put together 1 or 2 FG scoring drives, and lost 17-6. The Cardinals right now, might have the worst line in the history of the NFL. They can’t run block or pass block, are on pace to give up the most sacks in NFL history, and be among the worst rushing teams ever.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:32 PM
The worst NFL team has the best players from 100+ college teams. I’ve had this conversation a bunch of times with my friends and every time once you really break it down, no way does an NFL team lose much less let it be a close game.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:32 PM
he’s CBS’ draft guy…based on what i read by him last year, im not sure he’s working off the same tape the others are.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:33 PM
I dont root for much college football wise, but LSU beating Alabama and the SEC getting shut out of the title game would be fantastic.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:33 PM
They can’t run block or pass block, are on pace to give up the most sacks in NFL history
Really? More than the Texans’ first team? Yikes. Didn’t know it was that bad.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:33 PM
Marcell Dareus looked like a dominant lineman until he got into the NFL.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:34 PM
and bama’s CB’s would get nailed for PI for not turning back to the ball…even tho they’re not as bad as some other schools with that since saban teaches the bump and shuffle.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:34 PM
Guess you’re just going to have to agree to disagree with Clay and I, even if deep, deep down, you know you’re wrong.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:35 PM
Yes, about 32/35ths of the Bama fans I know.
My fan base embarasses me a lot.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:37 PM
Guess you’re just going to have to agree to disagree with Clay and I, even if deep, deep down, you know you’re wrong.
Sorry. I thought repeating the same thing was encouraged here.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:37 PM
Guess you’re just going to have to agree to disagree with Clay and I, even if deep, deep down, you know you’re wrong.
Rex has the knowledge, and I’m apparently the only open minded person here. Alabama by 7, unless the game is played with any weather other than hot. Then Alabama by 6.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:37 PM
on pace for 78, Texans let up 72. 39 through 8 games, with the following games left:
@ GB
@ ATL
vs STL (8 sacks last game against AZ)
@ NYJ
@ SEA
vs DET
vs CHI
@ SF (4 sacks last game against AZ)
In the last 5 games, 33 sacks allowed, for an average of just north of 6 per game, 8 games left, 48 + 39 is 87 sacks if they continue the current pace.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:39 PM
hot. Crazy, but hot
November 1st, 2012 at 1:40 PM
Has anyone ever answered this with a yes?
Yes, about 32/35ths of the Bama fans I know.
My fan base embarasses me a lot.
Sorry, Mullet. I should have qualified with “reasonable person.”
November 1st, 2012 at 1:40 PM
It’s not a guarantee. Remember how last year’s match-up was the game of the century….and then they played each other again.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:41 PM
Try as I might, I simply cannot argue with this logic. It’s really not a matter of “Why?”, but “Why not?”.
/walks out of court to the applause of the jury
November 1st, 2012 at 1:41 PM
Really? More than the Texans’ first team? Yikes. Didn’t know it was that bad.
they were utterly awful last year, and brought in PFF’s worst rated OG from 2011 as a starter, and then lost their only passable tackle for the year.
They start the worst two tackles in football, if you believe PFF.
Good thing for them they have
two goodno quarterbacksNovember 1st, 2012 at 1:41 PM
The Lions traded for Jags WR/KR Mike Thomas who signed a ridiculous deal last year and Jags fan were glad to see him go. Thomas won’t be replacing Stefan Logan on kicks.
/Fire Mayhew
November 1st, 2012 at 1:43 PM
I gotta think it’s a guarantee IF there are 3 undefeated teams left in Oregon, Kansas St, and ND.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:44 PM
Good thing for them they have
two goodno quarterbacksIf they had a sense of humor they’d call the Giants and trade for David Carr.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:45 PM
I gotta think it’s a guarantee IF there are 3 undefeated teams left in Oregon, Kansas St, and ND.
well, I don’t think that matters, because Notre Dame is definitely going to lose to Oklahoma last weekend.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:45 PM
later to watch the Chargers game.
Thanks for ruining my day. I’ll watch almost any NFL team except the Chargers. Can’t explain – I just despise that franchise full of pussies.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:46 PM
Sad part is Colledge has been the best lineman on the team this year. they have the 2 worst rated starting tackles in NFL, the 2nd or 3rd worst rated center in the NFL, and a bottom 5 RG in the NFL. And 2 terrible QBs, and 2 injury prone RBs behind them. How they won 8 games last year is beyond me.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:48 PM
They’ll have two losses after they lose to Pitt this weekend.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:49 PM
How they won 8 games last year is beyond me.
I remember how they won the one against Dallas. By being in the same stadium while Dallas shat it away.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:49 PM
squawk, of course they stink right now. I’m trying to hold on until things turn around. Think of how nice it can be, when the team you rooted for since the 80′s finally figures it out.
That day is coming (don’t know when, though). Keep Hope Alive!!!!
November 1st, 2012 at 1:49 PM
Shouldn’t be hard to motivate the boys this week, Les.
jenn brown’s body looked fantsastic talking with the hat the other day. her face looked….human
November 1st, 2012 at 1:49 PM
Thanks for ruining my day. I’ll watch almost any NFL team except the Chargers. Can’t explain – I just despise that franchise full of pussies.
it’s worse than you even realize. The Chargers are playing the Chiefs. That ought to draw a baseball type rating.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:50 PM
i hope miles is aka the hat
November 1st, 2012 at 1:51 PM
Injury plagued NFL team after playing an 18 game season? Maybe.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:52 PM
Intersting, same thing happened in 3 of their 4 wins this year:
Seattle dropped the winning TD in the end zone
NE missed the FG
Miami missed a FG in regulation, though not at the end of regulation, so this one gets an asterik.
/I hate being a Cardinals fan
November 1st, 2012 at 1:52 PM
I find it baffling that nobody here has written a post on Tyron Smith’s lousy family situation yet.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:52 PM
The Chargers are playing the Chiefs.
I guess I’ll finally start on that pumpkin the kids were so anxious to have me carve.
/worst halloween dad ever
November 1st, 2012 at 1:54 PM
I’ll still watch, but what a fucking shit show its gonna be. On a good not, tonight in fajita Thursdays, so I’m definitly looking forward to that.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:54 PM
I vastly overestimated the amount of time a carved pumpkin could sit on my front porch.
I threw 5 of the 6 away before my doorbell rung for the first time.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:54 PM
/I hate being a Cardinals fan
at least your franchise has a great former player in Dan Dierdorf.
November 1st, 2012 at 1:55 PM
/worst halloween dad ever
oh, can we tell each other halloween stories?
November 1st, 2012 at 1:55 PM
jim hart
some white safety
something metcalf
November 1st, 2012 at 1:57 PM
I may have to pull up an illegal online feed tonight, because baseball’s gone and because NBC is putting out The fucking Voice from 8-10. Apparantly they snuck in a new episode of 30 Rock last night and didnt tell the cable companies? Thanks NBC!
November 1st, 2012 at 1:58 PM
some white safety = Larry Wilson, HoF
Terry Metcalf – check him out on YouTube. He was fun to watch.
Mel Gray, Roger Wehrli, Conrad Dobler, Jackie Smith. Those Cardiac Cards were great. And, Coryell was the HC for awhile.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:00 PM
Apparantly they snuck in a new episode of 30 Rock last night and didnt tell the cable companies? Thanks NBC!
I did not know that, but that’s no reason to watch a Chargers/Chiefs game. Just watch 30 rock on Hulu.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:01 PM
This is always comical. Alabama would get beat by 20 pts vs. an NFL team. They’re called professionals for a reason.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:01 PM
i know jackie smith a a cowboys scapegoat who couldnt catch staubach’s poorly thrown pass
srod i know all thise names from old nfc east battles in the 70s. i was a diehard pokes fan in my grade school days
November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 PM
Who’s everyone got for the Bama/LSU game? I got Bama 31-22. Winning outright but not covering the spread (now Bama -10). Hoping for some gameday bets by LSU to bring it back down to an 8 or 9 hopefully.
I can’t see LSU getting to 22pts. Mettenberger has been inconsistent, while the LSU running game has been strong. I’d expect Bama to load the box, stop the run in the middle and force Mettenberger to beat them. I don’t think this will happen. Had this game been the 3-4th game of the season, yes, but they have come together.
/hopefully I’m not wrong
//will hear shit come Monday morning.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 PM
2010 Alabama smelling like 2005 USC. Greatest team in the history of ever, right up until they play someone good and lose.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 PM
I threw 5 of the 6 away before my doorbell rung for the first time.
Yeah – learned that the hard way. Once.
Which is why I probably never get them done anymore.
Of course, we thought the bigger fun would be blowing them up with firecrackers but that was a bit of a failure.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 PM
*2012, duh
November 1st, 2012 at 2:06 PM
Vez, the Cards’ version of the same Jackie Smith was top-tier. By the time he got to Dallas, he was pretty much used up.
We got lots of Cards’ games in Memphis back then. They couldn’t get past the Cowboys and Redskins most years, but they were competitive.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:06 PM
i know jackie smith couldnt catch staubach’s poorly thrown pass
what a terrible pass that was.
/I do not remember that game. That game happened before my days as a cognizant football watcher.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:07 PM
Bama – 55
LSU – 3
ROWL TAHD
/Dude just walked by and gave me that very prediction
November 1st, 2012 at 2:09 PM
I remember watching that game, I was 8 and was one of my 1st SB games. I was rooting for the Cowboys, cause I hated the Stillers.
/still do
November 1st, 2012 at 2:11 PM
some white safety = Larry Wilson, HoF
Terry Metcalf – check him out on YouTube. He was fun to watch.
Mel Gray, Roger Wehrli, Conrad Dobler, Jackie Smith. Those Cardiac Cards were great. And, Coryell was the HC for awhile.
But I’ll always identify them with that pussy Tomlinson crying about some team doing the Merriman dance on their logo or some bs. Damn that was an embarrassment.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:11 PM
I remember watching that game, I was 8 and was one of my 1st SB games
I was 6. I remember Steelers/Rams the next year, (and rooting for the Rams) but not anything else about that season.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:12 PM
The kind of throw a catcher makes to throw out someone trying to steal. Though it did lead to one of Verne Lundquist’s great calls
November 1st, 2012 at 2:12 PM
I can understand that, I mean the media/TV talking heads have already crowned them in the BCS title game, it’s just a matter of who they are playing.
Bama has been pretty methodical to their approach every game, they been up for game, not taking anything for granted. How much time have they’ve been behind this year? it’s like 0:08 secs or something. It’s gonna be a hard fought game. I expect nothing less. I just don’t think LSU’s offense has been consistent enough this year.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:13 PM
People never mention Vince Ferragamo when it comes to bad QBs who made a Super Bowl.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:15 PM
Still remember them beating the Bucs (in those creamsicle outfits) 9-0 in the NFC championship. Frank Corral, the hero for the Rams. Those Bucs had a scary defense that year. Hugh Green and the Leroy Selmon I believe.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:16 PM
They did play someone good, they raped number 11 Miss State.
/dude from yesterday’d
November 1st, 2012 at 2:17 PM
bou, you say 31-22 but then say you cann;t see lsu scoring 22.
rivalry game, lower score than that. 24-10 i say. agree with the force them to throw, but that’s no stretch, everyone’s saying it
if the o/u is mid 40s i’ll go under
November 1st, 2012 at 2:17 PM
My fault Hugh Green wasnt there till ’81. Leroy’s brother Dewey was there though
November 1st, 2012 at 2:18 PM
Still remember them beating the Bucs (in those creamsicle outfits) 9-0 in the NFC championship. Frank Corral, the hero for the Rams. Those Bucs had a scary defense that year. Hugh Green and the Leroy Selmon I believe.
goddam did it rain a lot that game. i can picture that shot of water streaming down the stadium steps
November 1st, 2012 at 2:19 PM
I believe it’s 41. I like the Over here.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:20 PM
obligatory
pound the under
November 1st, 2012 at 2:22 PM
I don’t think Bama could beat an NFL team, but I’d wager the Tide could hang 24 points on the Saints’ defense. At least.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:24 PM
Also, has anybody considered that Spurrier was referring not to the National Football League but the Necro Football League?
November 1st, 2012 at 2:34 PM
dead players?
November 1st, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Is there another Hall-of-Fame caliber player who has been ID’d with such an embarrassing scene during his career?
I still remember the playoff game against NE, where Tomlinson got what was called a minor injury, yet stayed on the sideline wearing a parka.
Guy’s got the stats to rank with the all-timers. But, dang. Seemed awfully sensitive for a pro athlete.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:51 PM
pointless topic and discussion. very mike and mike-ian.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:58 PM
Even LSU fans dont think they’ll win. But LSU fans are notoriously negative. Some positives for LSU: 1) Coming off bye (though it’s not like Bama over-extended themselves last week), 2) Have faced tougher competition – what will Bama do if the game is close, they tightened up a bit in last year’s 9-6 game. 3) Death Valley, with the caveat that they MUST get off to a good start or the crowd may turn on them. 4) Kevin Minter. 5) The “nobody believes in us” factor. 6) The revenge factor.
Bama 20-3. Just cant see them winning unless Zach Mettenberger has been faking being a bad QB this whole time.
November 1st, 2012 at 2:59 PM
If i recall he kept his helmet on as well.
November 1st, 2012 at 3:03 PM
A helmet with a dark visor. “I can see you, but you can’t see meeeeeee”.
November 1st, 2012 at 3:12 PM
Still waiting for an apology from the entire city of Jacksonville.