NFL Big Brother Power Rankings: Massive Shuffle at the Top, Giants and Bears to the Lead
The NFL is starting to take shape on a very broad scale, but the top and the middle are still way out of focus. This week resulted in a seismic shift among tiers. Up top, Houston and San Francisco looked like the class of the league at 5-0 and 4-1 respectively. A week later, both lost at home to other playoff contenders in convincing fashion, and that tier is a mixed up mess. Add in the injuries and unimpressive play in Baltimore, and Atlanta continuing to toy at home with teams that are not in contention, but win close, and everyone has their candidate.
I ran a poll in yesterday’s Post Game Handshakes as to who the best team was. Here were the reader results:
1. New York Giants (33%)
2. Green Bay Packers (17%)
3. Chicago Bears (13%)
4. Atlanta Falcons (13%)
5. Houston Texans (9%)
6. San Francisco 49ers (5%)
7. New England Patriots (4%)
8. Other (4%)
9. Baltimore Ravens (2%)
So that’s what our readers say, but which way do I go? The temptation is not to overreact. I try, when I do these power rankings, to look at a variety of things, from record, to who teams have beaten, to advanced statistical measures and rankings, to point differentials and schedule adjustments. The Giants leap up here, not only for the huge win at San Francisco, but also because several other results that impact them. The Bucs look better now, the Browns look better now, and yes, with a close loss on the road at Baltimore, Dallas looks a little better relatively speaking. That week 1 loss to Dallas involved cornerback injuries, and so as we project forward, I’m fine with putting the defending champs #1 for now. Not much separates the top ten.
You’ll notice that I have the NFC in the top five spots now, with Baltimore dropping and Houston’s home performance. The fifth team is the only undefeated one. Some do the “bump a team up until they lose” thing. Not me. Atlanta needs to play better to be considered a top three team. You can say “but the 49ers lost big”. Yeah, they also have looked really impressive at their best. But who would you take right now in the playoffs in the NFC?
As for the AFC, I talked about what a mess it was, and we could have multiple below average teams in the playoffs.
The top tier comes to an end near the top 10, with Baltimore lingering there even though we have major concerns about them being more than an average team in coming weeks. St. Louis moves up to #13, but that’s more of a testament to how uneven the teams in the middle have been, than some belief that the Rams are a playoff contender.
Turning to our Big Brother ejections, last week it was Oakland that got eliminated when Matt Bryant made the long field goal. Had they not, we would have had yet another week where none of the candidates lost in this crazy year. I’ve included eliminated teams where I would rank them in the rankings, but we’ll try to axe two this week. This week, we will have at least one elimination game, as the Bills go against Tennessee.
- New York Giants (4-2)
- Chicago Bears (4-1)
- San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
- Green Bay Packers (3-3)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-0)
- Houston Texans (5-1)
- Denver Broncos (3-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
- New England Patriots (3-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
- Miami Dolphins (3-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
- St. Louis Rams (3-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
- Detroit Lions (2-3)
- Washington Redskins (3-3)
- Arizona Cardinals (4-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
- San Diego Chargers (3-3)
- Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
- Carolina Panthers (1-4)-X
- New York Jets (3-3)-X
- Buffalo Bills (3-3)
- Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
- New Orleans Saints (1-4)-X
- Oakland Raiders (1-4)-X
- Cleveland Browns (1-5)-X
- Tennessee Titans (2-4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)-X
Who Should Be Evicted After Week 6?
- Jacksonville Jaguars (74%, 357 Votes)
- Tennessee Titans (17%, 80 Votes)
- Buffalo Bills (8%, 38 Votes)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5%, 25 Votes)
- Indianapolis Colts (3%, 15 Votes)
Total Voters: 481
[photo via US Presswire]

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108 Responses to “NFL Big Brother Power Rankings: Massive Shuffle at the Top, Giants and Bears to the Lead”
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October 16th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
I thought we would have the Ravens as an option.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:49 PM
Can’t really argue against any of the 4 teams you have ranked above Atlanta.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
no one expects the ravens as an option
/cadence wise it works
//monty python’d
October 16th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
It’s been real Jags.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
How is Jacksonville still in this? GTFO, Jax
October 16th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
i would take the broncos over the falcons. patriots and texans too
October 16th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
I knew everyone overreacted when they dumped the Browns!
October 16th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
Panthers ahead of the Bills? I call bullshit.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
Panthers are too high.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:54 PM
The Patriots handled the Broncos. Shouldn’t be two spots behind them.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
Wow Lisk REALLY sticking to the Cam narrative.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
The Bears are ranked over the Packers because…. (?)
October 16th, 2012 at 2:56 PM
I wish the Giants/Niners could be a best of 7 series. I’d love to see how the Niners come back after that. The Giants had a near perfect gameplan.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:57 PM
Because the choke job against the Colts was that bad.
October 16th, 2012 at 2:58 PM
The Bears are ranked over the Packers because…. (?)
if you’d come around more often you’d know that it’s because of point differential
the way to judge the quality of a team is how badly they beat bad teams
October 16th, 2012 at 2:59 PM
The Giants had a near perfect gameplan.
and niners had no adjustments?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:00 PM
off to the park….70 in western suburbs today
October 16th, 2012 at 3:01 PM
The Bears are ranked over the Packers because…. (?)
They beat Jacksonville and the Packers lost to Indy? Science.
/don’t really care
October 16th, 2012 at 3:01 PM
Really surprised at how much a loss to a good team affected the Texans. In the playoffs I would take the 49ers, who would likely have home field if they met Chicago, over the Bears.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
At the top of all the articles, does the first word get cut-off, obscured or completely hidden forcing you to guess how the post begins? Is it just my work browser?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
That was the Colts’ “Super Bowl,” with the added emotion of the #ChuckStrong thing.
Are we just throwing out Green Bay’s complete evisceration of the Bears from Week 2?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:04 PM
Green Bay’s complete evisceration
easy there, cowboy. I think the Packers are a better team with a far superior QB, but that was not an “evisceration.” I remember almost falling asleep in the 2nd half of that game.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
That was the Colts’ “Super Bowl,” with the added emotion of the #ChuckStrong thing.
Hopefully that game serves as the kick in the ass the Packers needed to get their shit together. I’ll be pretty confident going forward if they beat STL handily next week.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
Oh sweet, so now that’s the ONLY way to judge a team. Got it.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
Well, they basically just completed a Best of 3. How did that work out?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:07 PM
So many Paul Justin flashbacks during that game
They’ve had a better season up to this point, they’ll get their turn with the 49er, Texan and Seahawk defenses coming up…things could even out then
October 16th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
Keep it in and look at what Chicago has done, against pretty lousy teams admittedly, since then. Chicago lost to a good team, on the road and with a short week of preparation. They lost because their quarterback turned the ball over 5 times. It’s not as if Green Bay’s offense did what it showed on Sunday night against the Texans.
It’s a week to week league. That’s why the Packers, at 3-3, are still considered a top 5 team.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:09 PM
If the Packers lost to a team simply because the other team’s coach was sick, the entire front office and coaching staff in Green Bay needs to be replace. If those stupid fucking cliches are ever true, there’s no professionalism in sports.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:10 PM
Ha, missing the point and then getting overly snarky about it might be my favorite type of internet conversationalist
October 16th, 2012 at 3:10 PM
I knew the Colts had it in ‘em. Still taking them retroactively over the Saints last season.
/ Looks around nervously for Vez
October 16th, 2012 at 3:12 PM
About the friggin Bears no less.
I’d like to invest in this factory that produces emotionless android professional athletes, please.
/missing the point
//overly snarky
October 16th, 2012 at 3:13 PM
I hope that MIA thing continues, at least the good thing is that can’t lose this week
/got a BYE this weekend
//gonna beat the NYJ next week. NYJ -4.5 pt fav
October 16th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
I guess I should have wrote instead of “evisceration,” “sodomization of any/everything Jay Cutler.”
I just can’t fathom ranking a team higher than another when they were beaten soundly by that other team only a month ago.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
After the Lions shit the bed against the Bears on MNF can we please eliminate them? That fucking hillbilly needs to be reminded that the game starts in the 1st quarter not the 4th. At least the Lions D-line may hit Cutler a couple times.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Sorry weeze, the Soviet Union folded long ago.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
Dolphins at 11 is probably the biggest shocker after 6 weeks of football considering what was thought about their prospects coming into the season. Can’t say I disagree with it. Tannehill looks like someone they can actually build around.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
You can’t play that game though with the NFL since it will lead to a paradox at some point and then you’ll have never been born
October 16th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
Good teams lose to bad teams more frenquently in the first 8 weeks of the season than the second half of the season. This is nothing new.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:20 PM
So what are your factors for evaluation then? Just head-to-head play? What about mutual opponents? Performances on the road? Or just the other 5 games that Green Bay played besides Week 2? They’re ranked #4 after having lost to a team the Jets just beat by 25 and Chicago beat by 20.
I don’t think the Bears are the #2 team in the NFL right now but I certainly think they have had a better season to date than Green Bay. I’d also take them in the playoffs at this point because they’ve shown the ability to be a more balanced team than the Packers. Like Butters said, it’s Week 6. The data to evaluate both the Bears and Packers (and the rest of the NFL) is incomplete. Lisk is working with what he’s got here.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
Oh, you mean the Troy Aikman Automaton 1990 model?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
Are they playing each other? Because Cutler could see an LFL defense wearing the Packer unis and shit the bed
October 16th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
I understand the Ravens are a bit of a fraudulent 5-1, but 10th? Behind a 3-3 Pats team that they beat, a 4-2* Seahawks squad and a Bears team that got beat up by the only good team they faced?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
That probably factors in the loss of Ray Murda on top of the ongoing Suggs absence.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
No question he struggles hard against them. Just like Rodgers has difficulty against the Bears. They make him be patient, like he did against Houston on Sunday, instead of going for the big play. That game definitely injected some doubt for when the Pack comes to Soldier Field. If Rodgers plays that well and just gives what the defense takes him, he’ll conquer a Bears defense that has frustrated him for a few years now.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
makes me fucking sick to see the Bears that high. Although it is refreshing that the Jags are finally going to be eliminated.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
Of course you should not only use head to head when evaluating teams, but GB should be 4-2. They have played a much tougher schedule, and if the head to head option is there, then why not use it when evaluating two teams, especially when they last played fairly recently (last month)?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:29 PM
I wish Lovie and Tice would commit to running the ball more against Green Bay. Even screen plays. Use that aggressive defense to your advantage and make them over-pursue. If they could limit the turnovers to 1 or less while scoring between 17-23 points they’d give themselves a much better chance to win than they have in the past.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Webb is a far bigger loss, and I get that a bad defense will only be worse with Webb, Lewis and Suggs out (and Ngata, their best player) hurt. But right now they can’t be behind Denver, New England or Seattle.
Denver gets their ass kicked for two quarters every game then racks up a ton of stats once the defense lays off. They played three good teams and lost to them all. Baltimore beat NE. Seattle is, well, I suppose you could make a case for Seattle.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
But they’re 3-3.
While losing to the worst team on it.
We did. The Bears played extremely poorly against a good team and subsequently lost the game. We’ve only got 5 games to evaluate Chicago on and in 4 of them they’ve shown to be dominant against teams they should be.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:32 PM
i voted for the bengals.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:32 PM
That “If” should be a giant neon sign with sparklers and bullhorns blasting.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
I just can’t fathom ranking a team higher than another when they were beaten soundly by that other team only a month ago.
You would never be able to do any kind of ranking system if this was your criteria in the NFL. Try it and get about 5 results in.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
The Packers beat the Bears handily, played a much tougher schedule, and are only one “real game” behind Chicago. Right now, there’s no way Chicago should be ahead of them.
/no dog in fight
October 16th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
One win, and those Browns fans get the big head.
/ Now we see the arrogance inherent in the system!
October 16th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
I understand the Ravens are a bit of a fraudulent 5-1, but 10th? Behind a 3-3 Pats team that they beat, a 4-2* Seahawks squad and a Bears team that got beat up by the only good team they faced?
I try to rank mine on who I would take over whom in the playoffs if they met there. Hey, most people were wanting to bury the Ravens way more than me. The 5-1 start has not been dominant, so if they drop off a little with those losses, could make a difference on the schedule.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:37 PM
And wearing a sweater-vest because if they played Tressel-ball against Green Bay they’d have a better shot.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:38 PM
Good teams lose to bad teams more frenquently in the first 8 weeks of the season than the second half of the season. This is nothing new.
Link?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
No shit, doesn’t change the fact the refs fucked that game up, and a team’s win/loss record suffered from it.
If the Bears had played the Packers schedule to start this season, I believe they open the season 0-3. (SF, @GB, @SEA)
October 16th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
New York wouldn’t be able to be ranked above Dallas or Philadelphia.
Green Bay wouldn’t be able to be ranked above Seattle, Indianapolis or San Francisco.
San Francisco wouldn’t be able to be ranked above Minnesota.
Etc. Etc. Etc.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
But they didn’t.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
OK, I didn’t know your methodology. I do it the other way — what have you done up to this point? The rankings kinda make sense under your system, although I think Baltimore would pound Denver, Atlanta, and Seattle.
The Ravens are probably toast with that defense (again, Webb, not Ray), but if they can beat Houston Sunday night to get to 6-1 at the bye, they basically have to go 4-5 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. Even if they lose, 5-4 gets them there.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
I may be wrong, but I don’t tihnk Lisk is trying to simply be nice and reward teams for how they have done in the past.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:42 PM
Really surprised at how much a loss to a good team affected the Texans. In the playoffs I would take the 49ers, who would likely have home field if they met Chicago, over the Bears.
Several things here– was a big loss margin wise.
–Only quality win was Denver (compare to say, SF, who has won at GB and destroyed teams better than JAC and TEN)
–Still don’t know how much Cushing injury will affect them going forward
–Not much separates 1-6, could have put them 4th, but they got dominated by GB. People are talking about CHI but that was different. That was turnovers and a fake field goal touchdown and the game got away. This was just a butt whipping where the Packers looked like they were toying with the Texans.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
While this may be true, I think it should be accounted for more than how badly you beat up on 4 shitty teams.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Why can’t I vote to send the Steelers home? I’d really like to vote the Steelers.
/Oakland’s only win
//One of two Tennessee wins
October 16th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
The Packers played themselves?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:45 PM
We have a corner of 1st and 1st, nexus of the universe type situation here.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:45 PM
The golden rule is any given sunday no? Pete rozelles parity dream
October 16th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
I also get the feeling Ravens fans are giving way too much weight to the Patriots game. 1 point wins at home on a last second field goal are nice and all, but they don’t exactly slam the door shut on a “which team is better” argument.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
Why can’t I vote to send the Steelers home? I’d really like to vote the Steelers.
/Oakland’s only win
//One of two Tennessee wins
I’m waiting to see if they still get a little healthier. Obviously on on field results, should be outside top 20.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
Then how come you’re not accounting for how the Packers lost to one shitty team?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
Can we also discuss how FLOLacco has certainly not been elite the past few weeks?
/can’t wait for the Eagles to be kicked out
October 16th, 2012 at 3:48 PM
Good point again…
I thought we were arguing why the Bears are better than the Packers? You have shown me nothing to change my opinion that the Bears are not better than the Packers, as Mr. Lisk chose to show with his rankings.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:48 PM
It’s cray — there isn’t one game left on the Ravens schedule where a loss would surprise me. Cleveland, Oakland, doesn’t matter. All are now on the table.
If Houston, Pittsburgh (twice), San Diego, Washington, Denver, NYG and Cincy sucked before, it’s fucking brutal now. They beat Cleveland and Oakland and take three of the other eight they’ll be OK. But that’s a tall order and there is no margin for error at all, even with Pittsburgh and NE sitting on three losses.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:48 PM
It’s cray — there isn’t one game left on the Ravens schedule where a loss would surprise me. Cleveland, Oakland, doesn’t matter. All are now on the table.
If Houston, Pittsburgh (twice), San Diego, Washington, Denver, NYG and Cincy sucked before, it’s fucking brutal now. They beat Cleveland and Oakland and take three of the other eight they’ll be OK. But that’s a tall order and there is no margin for error at all, even with Pittsburgh and NE sitting on three losses.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
While this may be true, I think it should be accounted for more than how badly you beat up on 4 shitty teams.
How you play and who you play are both important. I have yet to see any proof, though, that winning close games against good teams is better than winning blowouts against bad teams for predicting who will be good in the future. In fact, teams that do the latter but tend to lose close games against good competition fare better in the playoffs than the inverse.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
See comment 21
October 16th, 2012 at 3:51 PM
Im not sure anyone is saying that. Then again, it took NE a dropped TD and shanked 30-yard FG to win last year. Those teams are actually really similar — offensively dependent with a defense occasionally capable of making big plays.
All I was saying was that before I knew Lisk’s methodology, having the Ravens behind a three-loss team that they beat seemed a little odd.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:51 PM
Cleveland beat Cincy who beat Jacksonville who beat Indy who beat Green Bay who beat Chicago who beat Dallas who beat the Giants
BROWNS #1!
October 16th, 2012 at 3:51 PM
Let me reword your words:
October 16th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
I appreciate your input. You have some of the most insightful shit out there, so keep up the good work!
October 16th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Chuck Pagano having cancer would have only made sense as having had an effect on the game if the Colts came out like gangbusters and led 21-3 at halftime…the Packer offensive and defensive lines getting manhandled in the second half decided that mess
October 16th, 2012 at 3:53 PM
So wed all get along better if we agreed whether these rankings were who we think are the best teams or who has had the best quality wins/losses
October 16th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
He’s been fine. KC was a bad game but he’s been solid otherwise. He’s 7th in the league in passing yards with a 92 QB rating. I’m OK with that. Actually, I want him to throw less because that means we’re running RR like we’re supposed to.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
I don’t care if Jim Irsay killed every one of their mothers, the Packers still lost to the Colts. The Colts are not a good team, just like the 4 teams the Bears beat aren’t.
If you’re going to penalize Chicago for not beating good teams, why aren’t you penalizing the Packers for losing to one? You’re framing this to fit your argument. I’ll just leave it at that.
October 16th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
So the Colts only remembered to be #ChuckStrong once they were down 21-3? Did they also forget about it Sunday against the Jets?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:55 PM
I THOUGHT HASHTAGS INSPIRED TEAMS TO WIN DIESEL??
October 16th, 2012 at 3:55 PM
What the fuck is the difference between:
the Packers being better than the Bears, or
the Bears not being better than the Packers?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:56 PM
If GB and Chicago were to play right now, either in Chicago or GB, is there anyone outside of the Windy City who thinks Chicago would win that game?
October 16th, 2012 at 3:57 PM
All I’m saying is at gunpoint between the two, give me the Packers all day everyday, and twice on Sunday.
October 16th, 2012 at 4:00 PM
I’d put it at 52/48 that the Packers win…those teams bring out the worst in each other, tough to say with any confidence that one would definitely beat the other
October 16th, 2012 at 4:04 PM
Troof. But if you did one of those Sportsnation polls thing, I think 85 percent of the country picks Green Bay. And if power rankings are perception, then the Packers should be in front.
October 16th, 2012 at 4:04 PM
But my main problem is not with the bears…its the argument that they must be goid bc they beat bad teams by so much. Early season rankings are taken wuth a grain of salt and little matters until january
October 16th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
Gd phone while walking dog
October 16th, 2012 at 4:08 PM
I think i just got an IU ad because of diesels avatar
October 16th, 2012 at 4:08 PM
Makes for boring conversation if you want to turn everything into “Only playoffs matter”…is this going to persist all season?
October 16th, 2012 at 4:09 PM
This isn’t baseball. Every game matters. You have limited opportunities to win games.
Use my ravens as an example: had they not lucked into wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys, they’d be sitting at 3-3 right now having to win a minimum seven of 10 games against a gauntlet that includes Steelers (x2), Chargers, Giants, Chargers, Texans, Bengals and Redskins.
October 16th, 2012 at 4:11 PM
Is that ok with you? Its what I think. You shouldnt be surprised by now how i ‘talk’ sports
October 16th, 2012 at 4:14 PM
That’s fine, you have to ruin others’ fun though?
October 16th, 2012 at 4:14 PM
I just dont trust the offense vs a good team. Great defense…qb and o-line are huge issues
October 16th, 2012 at 4:16 PM
Yes i am so influential butters
October 16th, 2012 at 4:19 PM
#pettycoward has a HUGE Klout score
October 16th, 2012 at 4:19 PM
Vez of considerable influence
Has a ring to it
October 16th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
Haha queef
Id rather have a huge KLUTE score
/paul newman?
October 16th, 2012 at 4:30 PM
I wish TBL would un-ban the 49ers fan he disposed of a few weeks ago so he can remind me once again of how lucky the Giants were to beat the 49ers.
October 16th, 2012 at 4:45 PM
Oh oh … the #joebush thing coming to a boil again.
How’d you get Paul Newman out of that?
October 16th, 2012 at 5:04 PM
Nada who was klute?
I did have a ? After newman.
And dont stir trouble ….this was not about othe #thing. Butters just wishes i argued sports opinions better. I get that
October 16th, 2012 at 5:29 PM
How many points did the Giants score in the second half and OT of the NFC Championship game? (Answer: 10.)
Now, how many of those points were scored directly after the Niners muffed (well, had a punt barely graze the returner’s leg) and fumble a punt? (Answer: All 10.)
Sometimes, football comes down to lucky breaks and bounces, more than old school mouthbreathers wish to admit. The Giants caught those breaks in the NFC Championship game.
The Giants and Niners were evenly matched last season – I don’t think that’s a very “controversial” stance to take. What happen this past Sunday has no bearing on that.