BCS Rankings: Alabama No. 1, Florida No. 2, Oregon No. 3, Kansas State No. 4, Notre Dame No. 5

All, College Football Ty Duffy October 14th. 2012, 8:39pm

The BCS formula has no predictive value. It is a hodgepodge of flawed methods. A statistical output offers it an aura of legitimacy. The components are obfuscated enough to deflect criticism. We’re pleased to be rid of it in the near future.

Teams rated No. 1 at this stage do not often finish there. Florida State (1999) and USC (2004) are the only teams to win the title after being ranked No. 1 in the initial rankings. LSU last year was the first initial No. 1 since 2007 to reach the game. LSU (2003) was the lowest initially rated title winner at No. 12.

Here are the rankings. Let the overreactions begin.

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Oregon
4. Kansas State
5. Notre Dame
6. LSU
7. South Carolina
8. Oregon State
9. Oklahoma
10. USC
11. Georgia
12. Mississippi State
13. West Virginia
14. Florida State
15. Rutgers

aroundtheweb

60 Responses to “BCS Rankings: Alabama No. 1, Florida No. 2, Oregon No. 3, Kansas State No. 4, Notre Dame No. 5”

1
Pastor of Muppets Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:42 PM
Assuming Florida is #2 because Oregon had a bye this week? And that if both win next week, Oregon leapfrogs them?
2
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:46 PM
No overreaction here. Looks right as right can be in mid-October. This will obviously look wildly different in the after the first weekend in December. At least arguments worth having have a reason now that this means something. As opposed to bitching about the meaningless AP poll.
/Eats free sandwich.
3
WheresWallace Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:46 PM
More intriguing is LSU and South Carolina ahead of no loss Oregon State. Oregon State doesn’t play USC and plays Oregon to end the season. If LSU or South Carolina win out does a no loss Oregon State hop them at any point? South Carolina will have beaten Georgia, Florida, Clemson, and SEC West winner. LSU would have beaten South Carolina, Alabama, SEC East winner. That’s the only place I see potential controversy unless there’s multiple unbeatens.
4
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:47 PM
Florida will lose soon. Not that good. KSU will lose soon and Notre Dame will lose to Oklahoma.
5
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:47 PM
Assuming Florida is #2 because Oregon had a bye this week? And that if both win next week, Oregon leapfrogs them?
Data points.
6
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:47 PM
/Eats free sandwich.
What you got on that free sandwich?
7
Jason McIntyre Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:49 PM
KANSAS STATE IS AHEAD OF NOTRE DAME?
wtf!?!
8
kazzythekid Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:51 PM
Why didn’t you include the numbers that correlate with each ranking?
9
ABob1086 Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:52 PM
Oregon’s going to stay behind both Bama and Florida until one of the latter two loses, most likely. Early schedule was a joke and Pac-12 isn’t enough to make up for it.
10
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:53 PM
More intriguing is LSU and South Carolina ahead of no loss Oregon State.
Florida will lose soon. Not that good. KSU will lose soon and Notre Dame will lose to Oklahoma.
I know we all need to argue about stuff because that is what the internet is for, but I think this season will be awesome to sit back and enjoy the fun. McIntyre had Texas being the team to win the Big 12 after KSU beat OU even though, you know, KSU beat OU on the road and they own Texas. This is fun. Nobody’s opinion is wrong until it is proven to be so.
/Something about West Virginia.
//OU wins the Big 12.
11
WheresWallace Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:56 PM
KANSAS STATE IS AHEAD OF NOTRE DAME?
wtf!?!
This is obviously a trolling comment, but I’ll respond. Kansas State beat Iowa State and Oklahoma in true road games. Both better wins than anything ND has on their schedule. ND has their shot at Oklahoma in a couple weeks.
12
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:58 PM
KANSAS STATE IS AHEAD OF NOTRE DAME?
wtf!?! Jase
You know, crazy? All CAPS and all. Ask Duffster about his SRS or whatever poll. ND neck and neck with KSU in the perfect SRS rankings.
Sorry, I’m being an ass. Had to go to a wedding of a step-niece I barely know this weekend. Let us all talk around Thanksgiving about BCS rankings.
13
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:58 PM
I still think ND goes 10-2. But that should be a major accomplishment for Kelly with that schedule. BCS bound probably.
14
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:58 PM
It is a hodgepodge of flawed methods.
I’m not a fan of the BCS, but so is SRS. Pretty sure it’s not possible to rank CFB teams without combining metrics that are flawed in some way. Still worth trying to do though.
KANSAS STATE IS AHEAD OF NOTRE DAME?
K-State’s best win is much better than Notre Dame’s. Plus K-State is just better than Notre Dame.
OU wins the Big 12.
yeah
15
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:00 PM
Are WV and OU in the same division? I still think WV has a shot at winning the Big 12.
16
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:01 PM
This is obviously a trolling comment
It isn’t. He doesn’t watch college football. He looks at SEO numbers.
/Damn, I’m being an ass tonight.
//Sorry, Jason!
17
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:01 PM
Are WV and OU in the same division? I still think WV has a shot at winning the Big 12. Vlad
No divisions in the Big 12. Only 10 teams.
18
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:02 PM
Are WV and OU in the same division? I still think WV has a shot at winning the Big 12.
No divisions. I’m not sure how they will determine the champ if multiple teams with the same record. WVU does still have a shot for sure, but it’s hard to see their defense not letting them down again.
19
resolutedefense Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:02 PM
Oregon just needs to win out and let the SEC teams pick themselves off. I’ll freak out if in December there are two SEC teams ahead of an undefeated Oregon but as of now I’m going to crack a beer and some watch football and baseball.
20
resolutedefense Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:03 PM
*watch some
I haven’t already had that beer despite my typing skills’ best efforts to show otherwise.
21
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:09 PM
I haven’t already had that beer despite my typing skills’ best efforts to show otherwise.
That was me last night. Couldn’t type for shit, and also couldn’t blame it on beer as much as I wish I could have.
22
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:10 PM
K-State’s best win is much better than Notre Dame’s. Plus K-State is just better than Notre Dame.
And they’ll have a common opponent in Oklahoma. I look forward to this. The 27th of October in the year of the lord of 2012. I probably did that wrong. That game should be big fun. Let’s enjoy college football without bellyaching about rankings before the first freeze of the fall.
23
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:11 PM
And they’ll have a common opponent in Oklahoma. I look forward to this. The 27th of October in the year of the lord of 2012. I probably did that wrong. That game should be big fun. Let’s enjoy college football without bellyaching about rankings before the first freeze of the fall.
I agree with all of this. My meltdown during the loss to K State will be nothing compared to what will happen if OU loses to ND. At least it’s in Norman.
24
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:13 PM
Oregon will lose to USC.
25
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:13 PM
What you got on that free sandwich?
Mayo and two week old tomato slices. It wasn’t worth it.
26
WheresWallace Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:15 PM
Oregon just needs to win out and let the SEC teams pick themselves off. I’ll freak out if in December there are two SEC teams ahead of an undefeated Oregon but as of now I’m going to crack a beer and some watch football and baseball.
There is a ZERO percent chance an undefeated Oregon will be behind two SEC teams. After last years debacle we will not see an inter conference rematch again. Won’t happen.
I do want to see what happens with an unbeaten Big East champ and any other BCS conference one loss team however.
27
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:17 PM
Mayo and two week old tomato slices.
That sounds like something they’d try to pawn on me at work after their day shift cookouts. Only it would’ve been left out in the sun for 4 hours with no lid on it while flies and other flying creatures of the night take microscopic shits on it.
28
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:17 PM
My meltdown during the loss to K State will be nothing compared to what will happen if OU loses to ND. At least it’s in Norman. Gfunk
I’m sitting here, without a rooting interest, anticipated for this game. Ok, I hate OU (conference hate and whatever) but I can never cheer for Notre Dame. This is going to be a mid-season Top 10 non-con game. How freaking often does that happen?
29
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:18 PM
I do want to see what happens with an unbeaten Big East champ and any other BCS conference one loss team however.
An undefeated Rutgers/Louisville will not play in the NC game.
30
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:18 PM
This is going to be a mid-season Top 10 non-con game. How freaking often does that happen?
It will be fun. I will say I’m glad Notre Dame is at least pretty decent this year to make the game worth a shit.
31
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:20 PM
That sounds like something they’d try to pawn on me at work after their day shift cookouts. Only it would’ve been left out in the sun for 4 hours with no lid on it while flies and other flying creatures of the night take microscopic shits on it.
Meth – I like you, so don’t take this as a dig. But you hate your job and the details you give lead me to believe you ride the back of trash trucks after hours.
32
Blount Force Trauma Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:20 PM
Oregon will lose to USC.
South Carolina isn’t on the schedule.
33
The Wayne Fontes Safari Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:21 PM
Let’s enjoy college football without bellyaching about rankings before the first freeze of the fall.
//Glances at frost-bit mums dying on deck.
34
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:22 PM
But you hate your job and the details you give lead me to believe you ride the back of trash trucks after hours.
What gives you that impression?
35
WheresWallace Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:22 PM
An undefeated Rutgers/Louisville will not play in the NC game.
I think an undefeated Big East champ and everyone else with one loss means the Big East champ gets in. The fact that Louisville/Cincy/Rutgers will all most likely be in the top 25 at seasons end will enhance their SOS.
36
Blount Force Trauma Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:24 PM
I think an undefeated Big East champ and everyone else with one loss means the Big East champ gets in. The fact that Louisville/Cincy/Rutgers will all most likely be in the top 25 at seasons end will enhance their SOS.
Bill Cosby agrees. Go Temple!
37
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:26 PM
An undefeated Rutgers/Louisville will not play in the NC game.
I think an undefeated Big East champ and everyone else with one loss means the Big East champ gets in. The fact that Louisville/Cincy/Rutgers will all most likely be in the top 25 at seasons end will enhance their SOS.
I can’t see it. Choosing between a 1-loss Bama or Oregon (hypothetically) to play against Rutgers/Louisville while the other gets left out would be a worse decision, and more of a shitshow, than the rematch last year.
38
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:28 PM
Bama even if they lose will end up playing a PAC/BIG 12 1 loss team for the NC.
39
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:46 PM
//Glances at frost-bit mums dying on deck. Wanye
Our mums are full of glorious color right now. We live in The SOUTH.
What gives you that impression? Meth
You hate your job. South of doing data entry (I did that for a year and half) trash truck guy sounds the next worse.
40
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:52 PM
You hate your job. South of doing data entry (I did that for a year and half) trash truck guy sounds the next worse.
Agreed. But I’ll say this. If you gave me a sheet of paper, I could very quickly fill it up with worse things I could be doing. I hate my job because it’s not my type of work. I don’t like sitting at a desk all day. I don’t like the shift and schedule I work. And 90% of the time there’s hardly any work to do, which means I have ample time to twiddle my thumbs and watch the clock. Makes for some long nights.
41
Ty Duffy Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:55 PM
I’m not a fan of the BCS, but so is SRS. Pretty sure it’s not possible to rank CFB teams without combining metrics that are flawed in some way. Still worth trying to do though.
How is SRS flawed?
42
Ty Duffy Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:58 PM
Any method is imperfect but the BCS formula is more flawed than just about any formula. It adds no predictive value. It’s just throwing a bunch of crap at the wall, compiling a number so it looks official and spitting out two teams.
43
A.P. Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:10 PM
The best part of espn’s BCS show this year: no more craig james!!
44
golfercraig Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:12 PM
But the SRS, THAT has real predictive value. How do we know? Well, because I said so.
45
sousedbergin Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:15 PM
Fuck Costas that condescending prick, when discussing the space jump “he jumped from 22 miles up, obviously breaking the sound barrier.” I disagree that it’s readily apparent that terminal velocity does not factor in until a far greater speed due to atmospheric conditions. Even if it could be simply understood why throw that word in?
/thought the dude was dead in the beginning tumbling around like that
46
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:18 PM
How is SRS flawed?
Duffy will be here all night.
47
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:23 PM
How is SRS flawed?
Just for the record I agree with the basic premise that SRS is a better ranking system than the BCS.
As I understand it SRS considers only two metrics: point differential (with some limits), and opponents SOS. I am going to quote a few things from this post:
The system does not take into account injuries, weather conditions, yardage gained, the importance of the game, whether it was a Monday Night game or not, whether the quarterback’s grandomother was sick, or anything else besides points scored and points allowed.
This system, like all systems, has some drawbacks, but it has the virtue of simplicity. It is easy to understand and it produces numbers that are easy to interpret. That is not to be sneezed at.
The bolded part is the main point I was trying to make earlier. The nature of college football makes it literally impossible to have any perfect system for ranking the quality of teams. I don’t think that’s controversial and I assume you agree.
So that’s how SRS is flawed — all ranking systems are flawed. As far as I can tell it is the best system for ranking CFB teams. But I’m not really convinced it’s that much better than the BCS, particularly at the very top which is basically the only thing that matters for the BCS. And as to the first quote above, simplicity is a virtue but I’m sure there are good arguments to be made for including other metrics in the system to make it more accurate. I haven’t seen any evidence that only considering point differential and SOS is inherently the best way to rank teams.
It weights all points equally, and therefore ignores wins and losses – take a look at the Colts season chart above. If you take away 10 points in week 3 and give them back 10 points in week 4, you’ve just changed their record, but you haven’t changed their rating at all. If you take away 10 points in week 3 and give back 20 points in week 4, you have made their record worse but their rating better. Most football fans put a high premium on the few points that move you from a 3-point loss to a 3-point win and almost no weight on the many points that move you from a 20-point win to a 50-point win.
I am also not sure why you think predictive systems are so preferable to retrodictive ones, at least with respect to individual college football seasons. While it’s true that predictive systems are better at ranking the relative quality of teams, it actually does matter who wins and loses games in a college football season. It might be true that hypothetically you could have a team get left out of the championship game despite being a ‘better’ team than another team that is in the game. But I can’t think of any cases in which I have a problem with that. The point is to win games and sometimes (always) there is a lot of luck involved.
In my view the BCS is not really terribly flawed as a ranking system. Its main problem is that it only matches two teams against each other, and there are always at least a few other teams who are good enough to compete for the championship. These teams are almost always ranked near the top of the BCS rankings. So for that reason I am not a proponent of the BCS, and look forward to playoffs. But not because I think the BCS is just horribly shitty at ranking teams.
48
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:33 PM
tl;dr
49
VladimirCrouton Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:35 PM
Walking Dead was awesome. No one will miss you Herschel!
50
golfercraig Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:51 PM
In 14 BCS title games, 50% of teams playing debuted at 1 or 2 in initial standings. 4 of 28 have come from outside the initial top 5. Yep, clearly not predictive. That is clearly not what you are intimating with your opening salvo. At least you don’t cherry pick stats to dishonestly try to prove your point.
51
Ty Duffy Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:00 PM
In 14 BCS title games, 50% of teams playing debuted at 1 or 2 in initial standings. 4 of 28 have come from outside the initial top 5. Yep, clearly not predictive. That is clearly not what you are intimating with your opening salvo. At least you don’t cherry pick stats to dishonestly try to prove your point.
What the f*ck are you talking about? Of course the initial BCS formula has a pretty good prediction rate for determining which teams the BCS formula will choose.
52
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:02 PM
What the f*ck are you talking about?
You can say FUCK, Duffy.
53
Ty Duffy Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:04 PM
When I am talking about “predictive value.” It’s how the BCS formula ranking relates to predicting actual outcomes. At that it is worse than just a raw baseline of wins and strength of schedule.
The formula’s purpose is to determine whether team No. 2 is better than team No. 3. It can’t do that with any definition, clarity or legitimacy. That’s why we get into asinine debates every time there aren’t two distinct teams that belong in the game.
54
Ty Duffy Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:05 PM
You can say FUCK, Duffy.
You can. I work here.
55
KC Resident Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:12 PM
You can. I work here. Duffy
I laughed. Duffy, more of the sense of humor thing. That was funny.
56
Monster is Meth Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:18 PM
You can. I work here.
I’ve seen one Mr. Douglas drop a few F-Bombs. I fucking know he’s said fuck a fucking bunch of fucking times. Fuck.
57
ohheelyeah Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:29 PM
Any method is imperfect
Yes.
but
No. No buts. Just stop right there. You (see, every talking head ever) have an opinion about another opinion (the BCS ‘opinion’), and you want your opinion to matter more. Am I the only one who sees the irony in that?
58
gfunk supreme Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:33 PM
When I am talking about “predictive value.” It’s how the BCS formula ranking relates to predicting actual outcomes. At that it is worse than just a raw baseline of wins and strength of schedule.
The formula’s purpose is to determine whether team No. 2 is better than team No. 3. It can’t do that with any definition, clarity or legitimacy. That’s why we get into asinine debates every time there aren’t two distinct teams that belong in the game.
This is the point. The main flaw with the BCS is only giving us two teams to play for the title, when there are other teams that are good enough to have a chance to win. The SRS may be better at determining the quality of teams, but if you just used it to give us two teams to play for the title, it would not be any better than the BCS.
59
sousedbergin Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:39 PM
and you want your opinion to matter more. Am I the only one who sees the irony in that?
You want your opinion on seeing the irony of wanting one’s own opinion to matter more, to matter more. Am I the only one who sees the tautology in that?
60
yorwifesahor Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 3:28 AM
Oregon State Beavers