Great beginning, horrible ending

What is looking at Kat Dennings from the feet upward?

Great beginning, horrible ending

This paragraph wins, so let’s wrap this up and go have a beer.

I’m headed to the golf course then to have a beer after before I head back into work tonight.

VJR – playoffs matter to a lot of people. As does age and history in the league. I’m okay with a little bit of “wait your turn” to Trout. It’s even more common in the NHL, I think.

I’m strangely OK with the wait-your-turn thing as well which is a part of my lack of outrage for Cabrera. I’ve always thought the playoffs argument is dumb, cant control who your teammates are (esp. if you are a rookie coming up through an organization), and it’s not like Trout hasnt been playing meaningful games in September.

I also dont want to see the award turn into “Who has the best WAR” award, but it’s no dumber than the “who has the most RBI” award that it’s been for much of its existence.

The “Trout missed April” argument is pretty bad. In the extra 60 PAs Cabrera had, he made like 55 more outs or something. Plus WAR is cumulative over games played and so it kind of erases that.

Most statistical arguments favor Trout, from slightly (offensive production) to strongly (defense/baserunning). I just might not give it to him anyway. I just can’t stand to see people argue that the triple crown is irrelevant, because it has never ever ever not predicted a top 2 player in OWAR.

And really, anyone in top 5 in the league in WAR should be able to win MVP without a ton of controversy, though I understand Trout’s huge lead argues against that.

I’ve read more about this in a week than anything in my life. This paragraph wins, so let’s wrap this up and go have a beer.

/no coop

If it’s not BBQ I’m totally lost right now

I had a “memphis” BBQ taco at a local joint and it had fucking BBQ sauce on it. Are you fucking kidding me????

As for what we are arguing about, I conceded at the start Trout had a better offensive season. Doesn’t mean I give him the MVP just for having highest WAR. And I wouldnt give Cabrera MVP just for Triple Crown.

VJR – playoffs matter to a lot of people. As does age and history in the league. I’m okay with a little bit of “wait your turn” to Trout. It’s even more common in the NHL, I think.

WAR is fine, but if you just want to automatically give it to the guy with the best WAR, what the fuck is the point of having an MVP vote. And if you argue for Trout because of WAR, but then also add in an argument for SB/BB/Defense, you are double-dipping entirely.

i have no problem with Cabrera winning it, and there’s a part of me that’s sad that our obsession with advanced statistics has sapped a lot of the joy out of possibly the first TC winner in my lifetime.

I dont think it’s that he leads in WAR, i think it’s that he leads by such a wide margin that even the measurement errors/disagreements in defensive value could not possibly explain the difference. If you look at the NL MVP vote the top guys are so close that a subjective evaluation is required. Not so with Trout/Cabrera – to vote Cabrera you’re basically saying one of two things – a) a player’s non-hitting contributions don’t matter, or b) the TC trumps everything else. I think in this case it’s more B than A.

WWOS, I’m not sure what exactly you think we were arguing about

If it’s not BBQ I’m totally lost right now

I just don’t think triple crown automatically = MVP. I also said it doesn’t NECESSARILY mean best offensive season, which you yourself have demonstrated. Obviously if you lead the league in a bunch of offensive statistics you are going to have a high oWAR.

WAR is fine, but if you just want to automatically give it to the guy with the best WAR, what the fuck is the point of having an MVP vote. And if you argue for Trout because of WAR, but then also add in an argument for SB/BB/Defense, you are double-dipping entirely.

Yes, ALMOST, as in, not this year.

As long as you believe WAR is the utlimate measure of offensive output, which puts a lot of stock into a stat you don’t really understand.

I agree with this to a point, though the sample size is much larger. The TC doesnt cover the entire spectrum of offensive skills. in particular it ignores BB’s, SB’s, and to a lesser extent 2B’s/3B’s (2B’s correlate somewhat with all 3 TC stats, and 3B’s are so rare in modern baseball they rarely play a factor, though it’s worth noting Trout has 8).

Actually HR and RBI correlate so highly that it’s practically redundant to include them in the triple crown. AVG, HR, and BB/SB would make more sense if you’re trying to capture “all-around” offensive prowess.

Yes, so WAR is much better… and 13/14 times, the triple crown agrees with WAR, meaning that while all those other stats are nice, HRs and batting average have the most impact on being a great offensive player, no matter what the stat. Which is my point, that in no way is it bizarre or a stretch. You could say “EVERY TRIPLE CROWN WINNER SHOULD BE MVP” and never make a bad choice. That is incredible positive predictive value, and from a mathematical perspective, is far less involved and uses far less computing power to do so.

If you look at organ transplants, you could match for 100 different epitopes, or you could basically just look at HLA and get nearly the same prediction of match, without nearly the cost.

The one’s that have Mike Trout ahead of Cabrera in oWAR this season.

Thanks for proving my point. So 13/14, and the exception has him 2nd. I’m not so sure WAR has as good a success rate at identifying the best offensive player. It’s a bit artificial, sure… but the Triple Crown is exceptional at almost always identifying the best offensive player in a league. Perhaps even more so than WAR.

Yes, ALMOST, as in, not this year. That’s why I don’t buy the “Triple Crown = MVP” logic. Because Trout has had a better year this year even though Cabrera is likely to win the triple crown.

who would you rather have on your team?’ most everyone would say trout, right, for his age if nothing else

And league minimum salary. He’d be #1 overall pick in a total re-draft. No one has taken this bait Vez, and maybe you will, though I’m pretty sure you refused last time.

For giving Trout 15 year (essentially lifetime) contract, given the injury/success risks, and guarantees, etc…

what is the HIGHEST number the Angels would say yes to, and the LOWEST number Trout would say yes to.

For example: anything below $200MM, the Angels sign, and anything about $250MM Trout would jump at.