People were calling Matt Ryan a top 10 QB right after his rookie season. Hell yeah, he was overhyped.

Just like Scam Newton.

Flacco has 5 tackles in 4 seasons well on the way to breaking Jake Plummer’s QB record for most tackles at 20.

That is an awesome stat

Hey Nick… I have a crazy baseball idea. Do you know anything about binonmial distributions?

That’s what I use for options pricing, which I don’t do often but occasionally.

Cant find it – but think about it, the NFL does not track individual carries to 1/10 of a yard.

So there is the problem. The measurement, not the actuality.

The link I dropped did mention that they all have 3 ypa median. The tools just aren’t there.

That was not in his rookie season, so you’re incorrect on that one.

The word “too” was used there as a substitute for “as well.” So, he was bad against the Patriots and in his rookie year, as well.

Flacco has 5 tackles in 4 seasons well on the way to breaking Jake Plummer’s QB record for most tackles at 20.

Awesome factoid.

/fixed for STDs and Every Rose Has Its Thoorrrooon.

Yes, he was terrible his rookie year, too. But he’s acquitted himself well enough lately that he deserves some credit for the wins.

That was not in his rookie season, so you’re incorrect on that one.

Really? Then why is Matt Ryan a career playoff loser?

Because he’s played poorly in the playoffs. Then again, he’s never been able to throw for only 37 yards and still get a win, like Flacco.

Really, this surprises me. Do you have a link? I’ll try to google it. I’m not saying median YPA > mean YPA always… but it would penalize inaccurate QBs, and QBs who complete a lot of passes for 3 yards.

Cant find it – but think about it, the NFL does not track individual carries to 1/10 of a yard. Ray Rice does not run for 3.5 yards on a given play, it’s either 3 or 4 depending on how they round it (whoever is in charge of that). So when you’re taking the median you’re taking the median of (for example) – 3,4,1,2,8,3,4,24,4,3,2,3,2, etc. The only RB’s who might have medians of 2 or less would be situational goal-line backs. The only ones that would have 4 or more would (possibly) be 3rd down backs who only carry the ball in 3rd-and-long situations. These would be extreme outliers without many carries who wouldnt be worth studying anyways.

The teams that stick to “ground and pound” have a ceiling of reaching the AFC championship game.

The Ravens aren’t a ground and pound football team. A lot of Rice’s value comes from his ability to leak out of the backfield and become a pass catching threat.

So they run because Ray Rice > Joe Flacco. I don’t think you are making the point you think you are.

I think I am. Ray Rice is better at his position than Flacco is at his. Flacco could carry the load if need be, but there’s no reason to force a different philosophy on the Ravens, IMO.

I am ABSOLUTELY going to use this the next time I’m on a podcast. +2.

Passing philosophy is a function of your QB.

Not really, no. Its a function of your offensive philosophy.

The offensive philosophy of the Broncos has just changed pretty dramatically in one year with the same coach and OC.

Ray Rice is the best running back in the NFL. Why not utilize him?

The league rules have dictated a shift toward passing offenses. It’s easier to pass now than at any other time in history. The teams that have taken advantage of this have won Super Bowls. The teams that stick to “ground and pound” have a ceiling of reaching the AFC championship game.