Calvin Johnson stands alone. At all other positions, there are at least debatable questions about who should be first. At receiver, though, my projection for Johnson is way above even the next tier. Let’s put it this way: my projection for Calvin versus Larry Fitzgerald is larger than the difference between Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown. It’s a combination of just how good he is, plus age, team situation, and injuries for others. Johnson plays with good enough receivers to occupy some attention (compared to Atlanta or Green Bay, where multiple receivers could finish at the top), but not demand touches at his expense. His quarterback is good enough to target him frequently (compare to Fitzgerald or others). He is at peak age and healthy (Andre Johnson).

Of course, all this means that I am putting a curse on him.

Previously, I did the running back (which I will update due to some injuries this week that affect platoon split numbers) and quarterback rankings. I was high on Carson Palmer. Since these projections are consistent and use the same team passing projections applied to all receivers (including the backs), then you know I’m going to be higher on the Raiders receivers than most (especially considering no tight end to siphon a lot of yards). Thus, I’m sure you will have a nice laugh when I project Darrius Heyward-Bey at #21. Don’t worry, I’ll save that for a separate post this weekend.

But let’s turn to some arbitrage opportunities, and how matching up quarterback and receiver projections and comparing to rankings can lead to them (or avoiding the opposite).

Carolina’s receivers this year present an arbitrage opportunity so long as you believe the market on Cam Newton is fair. He’s currently going in roughly the range that he finished last year, and with slight regression of his rushing touchdown numbers, that means about the same overall team passing numbers for Carolina. Passing numbers have to equal receiving numbers, it’s basic math.

Last year, Steve Smith finished 7th, Brandon LaFell 60th, and Legedu Naanee 70th in PPR leagues; Greg Olsen was 18th at tight end and Jeremy Shockey was 23rd. This year, Smith is going about 14th, LaFell 53rd, and Olsen 18th. You may glance at that and say the projections are the same and about where they finished.

The difference, of course, that Naanee and Shockey are gone. Those yards and touchdowns don’t just disappear, they have to go somewhere. Gary Barnidge is a blocking tight end, he’s not filling the Shockey role. Naanee and LaFell split #2 last year, with Naanee starting more games until late. We have about 75 catches and 940 yards and 5 touchdowns unaccounted for. If Barnidge, Armanti Edwards and David Gettis really do produce that much, you’ve got a scoop and you should be touting them as your fantasy sleepers. My guess is those three get some percentage of that, but the bulk goes to LaFell and Olsen in 2012, creating great value.

The flip side is New England. Let me say that I like the Brandon Lloyd signing, but unless they are going for 60 bajillion yards this year, someone has to be overvalued now. Let’s say you project them for 5,000 passing yards, which is similar to last year. (I did not, by the way, regressing for some slight drop off plus the risk of injury). Lop off about 450 yards for backs, and another 150 for random guys who get a spot start or a big catch. That leaves 4,400 yards. Now divide that between Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd, with some left over for Deion Branch. What do you get? Welker and Gronkowski, if you project for 2,400 of those (and they had over 2,900 last year), leaves 2,000 for the other three.

That leaves less than 700 yards on average. Sure, give Lloyd more than Branch, maybe even twice as much–something like 450 and 950. Can you go further? We’d have to cut even more into Gronk and Welker (and we already donated 500 yards), or limit Hernandez (he had 950 last year), or cut Branch to a non-factor entirely.  Both tight ends are going top 7 in drafts, while both receivers are going top 18. To justify their current ADP’s collectively, New England would need to pass for 5,400 yards this year. Brady would have to break Drew Brees’ long standing record.

Here’s the rest of the rankings (numbers are projected PPR points with 1 point for 10 yards and 6 for touchdowns:

TIER ONE

1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit (290)

 

TIER TWO

2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (258)

3. Roddy White, Atlanta (254)

4. Julio Jones, Atlanta (248)

5. Wes Welker, New England (236)

6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati (235)

 

TIER THREE

7. Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants (229)

8. Dez Bryant, Dallas (228)

9. Steve Smith, Carolina (227)

10. Brandon Marshall, Chicago (227) [Oops, accidentally left Brandon Marshall off the write up, here is where he ranked]

11. Andre Johnson, Houston (220)

12. Victor Cruz, NY Giants (218)

 

TIER FOUR

13. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh (215)

14. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay (212)

15. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay (211)

16. Greg Jennings, Green Bay (208)

 

TIER FIVE

17. Demaryius Thomas, Denver (204)

18. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (202)

19. Marques Colston, New Orleans (201)

20. Eric Decker, Denver (200)

21. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis (197)

22. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland (197)

23. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia (195)

 

TIER SIX

24. Percy Harvin, Minnesota (192)

25. Miles Austin, Dallas (192)

26. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (189)

27. Torrey Smith, Baltimore (188)

28. Steve Johnson, Buffalo (187)

29. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (186)

30. Denarius Moore, Oakland (185)

 

TIER SEVEN

31. Brandon LaFell, Carolina (176)

32. Malcom Floyd, San Diego (176)

33. Danny Amendola, St. Louis (176)

34. Austin Collie, Indianapolis (175)

35. Greg Little, Cleveland (174)

36. Santonio Holmes, NY Jets (174)

37. Pierre Garcon, Washington (171)

38. Sidney Rice, Seattle (169)

39. Randy Moss, San Francisco (165)

 

TIER EIGHT

40. Robert Meachem, San Diego (163)

41. Brandon Lloyd, New England (161)

42. Laurent Robinson, Jacksonville (159)

43. Kenny Britt, Tennessee (155)

44. Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh (154)

45. Legedu Naanee, Miami (151)

 

TIER NINE

46. Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City (149)

47. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay (149)

48. Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (149)

49. Titus Young, Detroit (147)

50. Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville (147)

51. Lance Moore, New Orleans (145)

52. Michael Floyd, Arizona (142)

53. Randall Cobb, Green Bay (141)

54. Stephen Hill, NY Jets (139)

 

TIER TEN

 

55. Golden Tate, Seattle (136)

56. Santana Moss, Washington (133)

57. Steve Smith, St. Louis (130)

58. Davone Bess, Miami (130)

59. Damian Williams, Tennessee (130)

60. Donald Jones, Buffalo (127)

61. Brian Quick, St. Louis (127)

 

OTHER SLEEPERS (if given an opportunity due to depth chart changes)

Vincent Brown, San Diego

Jerrel Jernigan, NY Giants

Harry Douglas, Atlanta

Jacoby Ford, Oakland

 

[photo via US Presswire]