Why Didn’t the Nationals Limit Stephen Strasburg’s Innings in a More Sensible Way?
The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball and are poised to make the playoffs for the first time since the franchise moved to Washington. If the season ended today, they would head into the postseason as one of the favorites. Of course, if the playoffs started tomorrow, the Nationals would be going into the playoffs with their best player – something they will not be doing in October because they plan to shut down Stephen Strasburg well before then.
The Nationals deciding to stick to their inning-limit on Strasburg has many people up in arms. Those people have a point. Sitting your best player when you have a chance to win a World Series is stupid. Making the playoffs is hard – even with the ridiculous, expanded 1-game Wild Card format. There is no guarantee that Strasburg and the Nationals will be back in the playoffs next year, or ever for that matter.
Having said that, Washington fans, players, doctors, residents and management seem mostly fine with the decision. They ain’t wrong either. This is a move that should benefit the franchise in the long run. I don’t have a problem with the Nationals limiting Strasburg to a certain number of innings to protect his arm and their long-term investment. Neither do you or Leo Mazzone. And on a more personal level that is rarely seen in the sports world – this is a move that should benefit Stephen Strasbrug’s arm, career and life in the long run.
OK. So I have established beyond a reasonable doubt that both sides in this argument are each 100% correct. Now for the really important question – could both sides be more righter-er (-iest?)? I think so, but it would have required some more outside-the-box thinking from the Nationals – something they have already shown they are capable of by deciding on and sticking to a limit on innings pitched. First, there are some questions that I need answered about this whole system that could cost the Nationals a World Series title.
Do they treat an inning as a standard measurement like a minute or a metric ton? I’m sure they don’t. There is no way that I realized all innings are not created equal before someone in the Nationals’ organization. I’m no Jonah Hill in Moneyball. Take Strasburg’s back-to-back wins to start the month of May. Both were 6-inning outings that ended with a pointless “W” statistic for Strasburg. In the first game against the Phillies, he threw just 76 pitches in those 6-innings. Against the Pirates six days later he threw 103 pitches.
Next question – are they monitoring warm-up pitches? I’m sure they are. The Nationals likely have a magic number written on a white board in the clubhouse at Nationals Park that is both underlined and circled. That number probably represents the number of times that Stephen Strasburg is allowed to bring his arm forward in a throwing motion between March and November. If Strasburg is standing near a refrigerator at a party and someone across the room says, “Hey, Steve-O, toss me a cold one,” there’s a guy the Nationals are paying to click a pitch counter before the Stras-bro catches his brew.
The common argument that I have seen for the Nationals current plan for Strasburg is that they never expected to win, contend or even still be a baseball team by the middle of August. Unfortunately for the Nationals and their fans, it became apparent early that this might not be the case.
On May 1st, the Nationals were in first place by a full half-game. On June 1st, the Nationals were a game ahead of the Mets and Marlins for first place in the National League East. Obviously, a lot has changed since then. On July 1st, the Nationals were 3.5 games up on the Mets. On August 1st, 2.5 games over the Braves. Today, they are 4.5 games ahead of the Braves. Basically, the Nationals have been on top the NL East the entire season. At some point they should have realized this and altered their plan so that Strasburg would be available for postseason duty on the off chance that the Nationals actually made the playoffs.
If it’s about a certain quality of rest between starts – say 4 days – wouldn’t they have been better having him throw a simulated, controlled four or five “innings” while the team was on the road so he could throw a real 7-inning game when the team came back home? Making Strasburg take the mound on the road shouldn’t be a concern because winning now obviously is not a priority. At least not if it comes at Strasburg’s expense.
Wouldn’t the Nationals have been better off letting Strasburg rest on the road? Strasburg currently has 12 starts on the road that ultimately don’t matter vs. 11 starts at home where they reap the benefits of money at the gate and concessions? And couldn’t the simulated innings and missed road starts have bought some more time down the stretch and into the Fall? As it became more and more apparent that the Nationals would be playing in the postseason, shouldn’t altering the plan to keep Strasburg around have become a priority? There must have been a way to change the manner in which he reached 180 innings that would have at least given their best player a chance to affect their chances in the postseason. At least then everyone would have been right.

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61 Responses to “Why Didn’t the Nationals Limit Stephen Strasburg’s Innings in a More Sensible Way?”
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August 15th, 2012 at 1:25 PM
Awkward
August 15th, 2012 at 1:26 PM
Are they sitting Gio? I hadn’t heard this.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:28 PM
Can’t wait to hear Lisk and Hernia get in on this today too.
Weird timing.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:29 PM
Leo Mazzone’s time with the Orioles was pathetic.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:30 PM
It’s weird – that’s the longest thing I’ve ever seen CRM post, and I think the title is sort of all that needed to be posted.
I don’t know, man, talk to the Nationals and ask them that question.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:30 PM
When does Sam Eifling post his take on Strasburg?
August 15th, 2012 at 1:31 PM
Nice piece on the Mavs draft pick from Grantland (may be old news, I hadn’t heard of him).
Thanks for putting together all our comments from the last two days, Stephen.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:32 PM
Do they treat an inning as a standard measurement like a minute or a metric ton? I’m sure they don’t
The standard u/m they’re using is pitch count. There is no hard innings limit, it’s based on how many pitches he throws. If he starts having soreness or a “tired arm” he’d be shut down early.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:32 PM
is Strasburg trending?
August 15th, 2012 at 1:33 PM
cause they’re still the nationals.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:39 PM
Nothing about Hiroki Kuroda?
/yardwok
//wanking
August 15th, 2012 at 1:40 PM
When does Sam Eifling
postcut and paste his take on Strasburg?/fixed
August 15th, 2012 at 1:40 PM
Am I having a stroke?
August 15th, 2012 at 1:41 PM
Previously: Lisk, McTiBbLe, WWoS, SC, et al
August 15th, 2012 at 1:42 PM
Previously: Lisk, McTiBble, WWoS-SC-SROD et al
/with no links… apparently you can’t even put three links if they are BLS links.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/08/15/stephen-strasburg-shutdown-at-180-innings-is-overshadowing-and-will-probably-ruin-the-nationals-incredible-season/#comment-1739437
August 15th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
I believe they should just skip him 2-3 starts over the next 6 weeks. Have him do everything he normally does on his four “off-days” and even do everything he normally does the day of his start including the pre-game bullpen.
But then, do NOT let him pitch that night. Have a callup or someone else mirror his pregame and then have that person pitch the game.
Then he can go back to his normal four day schedule of preparation and on the fifth day pitch the game.
If he pitched two games, do what I say and skip one, then pitch two more and then skip one, and then see where the TEAM is and where SS is at.
I got to believe this will not only keep him fresh, but also keep him from shutting it down for a month in prep for the playoffs.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:44 PM
Am I having a stroke?
Hold up the number of fingers deep into the Strasburg is being shut down story cycle that you are feeling.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:45 PM
How would shutting him down affect endorsement deals? Let’s get Barry Janoff on the case
August 15th, 2012 at 1:45 PM
How the hell can a baseball story be beyond saturated, here of all places.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:45 PM
is Strasburg trending?
Must have had a high page view count on the prior ones on this.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:47 PM
Sports are business. Businesses sell products. Products need to be superior to be purchased over their competitors. Stephen Strasburg is part of the Nationals collective product. A successful business runs for more than one year.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:49 PM
How would shutting him down affect endorsement deals? Let’s get Barry Janoff on the case
Will he be able to play golf? Stephanie Wie will give us the answer.
Something something Intern Bill.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:49 PM
I just got my MBA reading that
August 15th, 2012 at 1:53 PM
This is new. As in, it wasn’t presented in previous posts. Skipping road starts would require the Nationals to carry 13 pitchers, leaving them with just 12 position players on a National League club. That limits their options when pinch hitting or double switching. If the suggestion is that the Nationals just call-up and send-down a pitcher to save the roster spot, then you’re wasting minor league options on other players which makes them become more expensive at a faster rate.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:55 PM
Will there be some sort of exam performed at 180 innings next year to see if he can still go or just assume all is well? I’m with Lisk, this is more guessing game than real medical science
August 15th, 2012 at 1:56 PM
NHL CBA negotiations are just dust in the wind.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:57 PM
Calling a guy up for 12 days will have a negligible impact on his clock.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:59 PM
This is freakin’ brilliant! Science. Emotion. Beer. Economics. My day’s complete.
I think I might have scared a neighbor, I’m laughing so hard.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:00 PM
I hope this proves to be an obnoxious distraction that screws up the Nats down the stretch.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:05 PM
The Nats have a couple of built-in chances upcoming to skip Strasburg starts. They have two different 3 games series that are sandwiched by off days (8/24-26 @ Phi, 9/14-16 vs. Atl). If they opt not to use this to their advantage in an effort to space out his starts so he can pitch in October, then they deserve all the criticism they receive.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:06 PM
It’s pitch count. Not innings.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:06 PM
What is this, Little League?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:07 PM
But there are a limited number of options a player has. You run out of options, then he has to pass through irrevocable waivers to return to AAA. Do the Nationals want to risk losing a starter for this?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:07 PM
If I recall correctly, it was all about innings in my Little League, not pitch count. If you pitched 4 or more innings, you couldn’t pitch the next game.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:08 PM
Here, I’ll copy and paste it again.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:09 PM
Okay, change it to pitch count…question still stands, you just assume he’s going to be better a year out because of some anecdotal evidence of it happening with other guys or is there real science here regarding his arm?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:12 PM
just got my MBA reading that
/dying
August 15th, 2012 at 2:17 PM
Generally, pitchers have no been advised to exceed 30% more than the total of pitches they threw the year before they got the surgery. Where that number came from, I don’t know. They try to keep them between 15 and 25% in increase.
There was a risk in him coming back to pitch at all. There’s more risk in exceeding the limits they set out. That’s all this is: risk. I posed the question last week to Lisk. If he has arm trouble next season, regardless of how far they would get in the postseason, would it be worth it? What will the criticism on Mike Rizzo be?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:19 PM
Coming from a Cubs fan point of view, where two arms were completely destroyed because of high pitch counts, I think the risk is not worth it. Look at what happened to the Cubs from 2003-2008. Honestly, go to Baseball Almanac and look at the pitchers they threw out there in those years when both Wood and Prior were on the shelf. Then look at their records.
You can turn this around and make fun of the Cubs, but there is precedent. A team has taken this risk in the past (Wood had TJ surgery) and it ended up costing them for years down the line.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:20 PM
But there are a limited number of options a player has. You run out of options, then he has to pass through irrevocable waivers to return to AAA. Do the Nationals want to risk losing a starter for this?
I could be wrong but I believe options are a yearly thing. Meaning if a guy has options left, calling him up takes 1 option year away, but you can call him up and send him down as many times during that year as you want.
/will go look that up now
August 15th, 2012 at 2:21 PM
When a player is added to a 40-man roster for the first time, the major league team is permitted three optional assignments of his contract, or three “option years.” This gives them the option to assign that player to the minor leagues without requiring him to clear waivers. For each season thereafter in which the player is assigned to a minor league team, one option is used up.
When a player is out of options, he can still be assigned to the minor leagues, but first he must clear waivers.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
But there are a limited number of options a player has.That’s not true in the way you’re using it. It’s all about service time. You can send or call up a guy as many times as you want.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:24 PM
See #42. Three options after he is on the 40 man.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:25 PM
Option YEARS.
You can call him up and send him down 40 times in a single year, and it matters not.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:26 PM
Ha! I wanna see somebody call him “Steve-O”.
When he’s done today & tosses a used towel in a towel bin, does he throw it underhand? If so, does it not count towards the magic number, or does it?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:27 PM
SC, how has that Yonder Alonso over Morneau decision worked out for you? Honest question, I don’t own either of them in my leagues but I feel like Morneau has been playing well…
August 15th, 2012 at 2:29 PM
Also, if that is the correct amount of innings/pitch count, then it could be that as little as three starts are being missed on that pitch count. Seriously, they are talking about 300 pitches? That’s insane. Studies have shown that as the arm becomes more tired, injuries are more likely to occur, so why weren’t his game pitch counts being monitored instead of total? Two 6 inning games with a 30 pitch count difference? That’s Dusty Baker Science. A more reasonable approach would have been to limit him to an 80 pitch count per game, which after 33 starts would have put him at 2,590 pitches. Instead they ran it like a 16 year old shouting “It’s better to burn out than fade away!”
August 15th, 2012 at 2:31 PM
It was a joke. I understand pitch count.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
It worked OK. I picked up Oakland’s Chris Carter as well. Carter for Power, Alonso for walks. Carter got me both. I just traded Alonso, Sandoval and E-Jackson for Jered Weaver. Was anticipating Votto would be back about this time. Instead, the Reds have handled that whole thing about as poorly as possible. He may not be back until September now.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
When does Dusty Baker reach his managed games limit?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
Nolan Ryan scoffs at this whole discussion.
/pickle brine FTW
August 15th, 2012 at 2:33 PM
I would count it as 0.5.
I wonder if they forbide him to masturbate?
August 15th, 2012 at 2:35 PM
Now this is funny.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
St. Bear!!!!
Seriously, MLBN just showed a proposed Zimmermann-Gio-Jackson-Detwiler-Lannan rotation post-shutdown. How many times in the post-season do teams stay with a 5-man? Normally, isn’t it top 3, and maybe your #4 if necessary, with days off and all?
Maybe this is less of an issue than it appears to be.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:39 PM
. I just traded Alonso, Sandoval and E-Jackson for Jered Weaver.
Wow great deal. I have Carter too, he’s been really solid. Too bad he sucked when I had him as a prospect for 2 years on my AL only tema before dropping him this past offseason.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:40 PM
Yes. But Strasburg still makes it better and I’m in favor of shutting him down. Jackson has struggled recently. Especially with the longball.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:43 PM
He throws hard enough, but his fastball is arrow-straight.
I’d be on pins & needles if he started a post-season game, but if the Nats win his start 7-5, “it’s all good”…lol
August 15th, 2012 at 2:44 PM
No one really knows if high pitch counts destroys arms outside of very extreme conditions…. your ability to stay healthy is still predominantly determined by your genetic make up and luck. Most likely high pitch count is a factor simply because you can’t get hurt in the dugout however with inferior genetics you’re probably just prolonging the inevitable.
These Joba and Strasburgh rules are mostly about CYA and blame deflection since there is no medical evidence to support it.
August 15th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Kerry Wood was already breaking down his rookie year…I think pitching is just shitty on the body regardless and drawing cause-and-effect conclusions to apply to all pitchers is being conservative for the sake of being conservative
If you’re worried about it affecting him next year, hold him out until the All-Star Break…not being at your best for a rare postseason appearance because you’re making a shaky educated guess just rubs me the wrong way
August 15th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
Let him skip a few starts down the stretch so he can pitch in the playoffs. I’m a football guy, not a baseball guy, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. Agree to the innings limit. Just skip some starts so he can pitch in October. Washington Dopes. Still a hopeless franchise.