Stephen Strasburg Shutdown at 180 Innings is Overshadowing (and Will Probably Ruin) the Nationals Incredible Season
Stephen Strasburg vs. Tim Lincecum today would ordinarily be heralded as a matchup between two of the best pitchers in the NL – though Lincecum, the 2-time Cy Young winner, is having a poor season – and potentially a National League playoff preview, as both teams lead their respective divisions.
But who can talk about anything other than the impending Strasburg shutdown? The Nationals – depending on your point of view, they’re either being terribly foolish or making the right call long term – seem adamant about shutting down their best pitcher after 180 innings. Strasburg had Tommy John surgery in 2010, and that 180 inning limit appears firm, regardless of how far the Nationals get in the postseason. That is, assuming they reach the postseason.
Strasburg has pitched 133 1/3 innings so far this season. Simple math: Strasburg’s got 46 2/3 innings left this season. There are 45 games left in Washington’s season. As I see it, the Nationals have a few options:
1) Have Strasburg space out his starts the rest of the regular season so that he’ll have a couple starts in the postseason. Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez have been outstanding so far. What if you made Strasburg the No. 3 starter in the first and second round of the postseason? Best case scenario is he only throws 12-14 innings in two rounds and still has innings to spare in the World Series. [UPDATE: Washington Post today has a blurb: there was "never a chance" Strasburg would pitch in the postseason.]
2) Save Strasburg completely for the postseason. Make this San Francisco start his last one. Hope that the rest of your staff and your bats can get you there. If you wind up in a play-in game, then sure, you can use a fresh Strasburg.
3) Here’s the problem with No. 2 – even if you save 39 postseason innings for Strasburg, let’s say he makes two 7-inning starts in the first round and in the second round. That leaves you with only about 13 innings in the World Series for Strasburg.
Yes, the firm 180 inning count is ridiculous. Don’t bring up shutting down Zimmerman last year. The Nationals were never in postseason contention. I would advocate shutting down Strasburg if the Nationals were a fringe contender, like say the Diamondbacks or Mets. But this is a team with a legitimate shot at the World Series. GM Mike Rizzo is calling the shots, though, and doesn’t seem to be wavering at all. The Washington Post included this nugget in defense of Rizzo:
It includes the view of the surgeon, Lewis Yocum, who’s performed all the operations on Nats pitchers in recent years. It is Yocum’s belief that pitchers who break down from premature returns from elbow surgery — sometimes ruining their shoulders, and their whole careers, rather then their new elbows — don’t usually do so during the first big stress year but rather the following season. That would be 2013 in Strasburg’s case.
Nobody’s saying Strasburg should throw 220 or even 200 innings in hopes of the Nationals winning the World Series. But I’m with Joel Sherman of the Post – go with a six-man rotation the rest of the regular season and hope for the best with Strasburg in the postseason. This anonymous quote should be delivered to Rizzo:
Plus, he has [Scott] Boras as an agent, so you may be saving him so that he can break the bank with someone else some day.”
Long term, it might be in the best interest of the franchise to shut down Strasburg early. Try telling that to an ultra-competitive 24-year-old who will finish in the Top 5 for Cy Young voting in the NL.
Previously: Dick Vitale Is Actually Right: The Nationals Should Not Shut Down Stephen Strasburg for the Playoffs

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111 Responses to “Stephen Strasburg Shutdown at 180 Innings is Overshadowing (and Will Probably Ruin) the Nationals Incredible Season”
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
SHUT IT DOWN!
August 15th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
SHUT IT DOWN!
August 15th, 2012 at 10:55 AM
Tough to take baseball seriously with news like this
August 15th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
I thought it was supposedly a 160 inning limit?
August 15th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
So what would you think is acceptable? 185? 190? 195?
August 15th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
Dear Nations,
We request that Strasburg get to 180 innings well before the end of the season.
Thank you for your cooperation.
Signed,
Every Braves fan
August 15th, 2012 at 10:56 AM
Post-splosion.
August 15th, 2012 at 10:58 AM
That’s what I think they were saying on Sportscenter yesterday.
In general, I understand why the Nats are doing this but it would be stupid not to space out his starts with a 6-man rotation so that he can pitch in the playoffs.
August 15th, 2012 at 10:58 AM
Tough to take baseball seriously with news like this
Please explain
August 15th, 2012 at 10:59 AM
Going to the game today – can’t wait to see the showdown. I feel like Lincecum shows up for this one.
They just need to limit his high-pitch innings (if possible). Maybe skip a start later in September if needed. I feel like sitting him for a while, then reactivating him in the playoffs would be a recipe for disaster and more potential arm injuries.
In baseball, you don’t get many chances to win the World Series – it’s what makes the sport so great. The Nationals seem like they’d really be tempting fate by ignoring that. They have a good enough team to win it all this year.
BTW, as a very harsh critic of TBL baseball posts, I will say this one was good, and I enjoyed it. Please keep more like these coming.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:00 AM
Yeah. Seems like a lot of hemming and hawing over an extra 19 innings.
Just let him skip a few starts, and he’ll get to throw in the postseason. If you make it to the WS, you can always re-evaluate.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:00 AM
Some pitchers don’t do well with the extra day of rest. I don’t know enough about Strasburg to say whether or not he falls in this category, but I know that it does effect some people.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:01 AM
This needs a Lisk type breakdown. Where is he when you need him ?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Tough to take basketball seriously with news of teams openly tanking and losing games.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:03 AM
Dusty Baker approves this message.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:03 AM
see update at No. 1.
Wash Post today: “Never a chance Strasburg would pitch in the postseason.”
August 15th, 2012 at 11:04 AM
1st Wash Post link says innings limit was between 160-180.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:04 AM
/guts team in hopes of signing Dwight Howard
August 15th, 2012 at 11:04 AM
Adam LaRoche had the best quote about this.
““But our side is, the playoffs aren’t guaranteed. You don’t want to shut your best guy down — or one of your best guys, because we’ve got a bunch of them — if you’re never going to go back there. If I knew for the next two or three years we’re going to go back, then it’s probably an easy decision. ”
If the Nats shut him down I hope they never make it back to the postseason again. There’s no guarantee shutting him down prevents injury anyway. How did the Joba rules work out?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:04 AM
Dear Nations,
Sad thing is, Fredi will still find a way to fuck it up.
Dear Braves,
Please have Fredi not blow me out during September.
Signed,
Kimbrell’s elbow
August 15th, 2012 at 11:05 AM
He wrote about this last week, odd that it wasn’t linked anywhere here
August 15th, 2012 at 11:05 AM
Nice work.
Nats currently have a 98.2% chance of making the postseason
August 15th, 2012 at 11:05 AM
Also, can’t TBL just contract the Nats at the end of the season at the same time he’s contracting the Pirates?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:06 AM
problem was Joba got fat and was overrated to begin with.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:07 AM
+1
August 15th, 2012 at 11:07 AM
I’m torn on this…I understand the Nats concerns, save him for the rest of Strasburg’s contract and hope he’s healthy. However, this creates a terrible situation for the team (players obviously calling out management a la the Red Sox), and they’re pretty much pissing away their chances at advancing past the NLCS.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:07 AM
Mark Prior and Kerry Wood would like to know when Dusty Baker began to believe in an IP limit.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:09 AM
You mean the sport that actually rewards the best teams 99% of the time with something called a “title?” Baseball and football would be wise to emulate
August 15th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
This needs a Lisk type breakdown. Where is he when you need him ?
I wrote about it last week.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:10 AM
The best plan of action is to start skipping starts for Stras, give him 10 days of rest, or go six man rotation when rosters expand in 17 days. If he has 20 IP left by the end of the season, that allows for three starts in the playoffs (6 IP max)
August 15th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
I agree with previous commenter. If they shut him down I will be rooting against the Nats in this and every succeeding season.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:11 AM
sorry, meant to include link with that. Here were my thoughts.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:12 AM
Isn’t that similar to what Boston’s chances were last year at this point?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:12 AM
Straus hasn’t even been their best pitcher of late. Studs up and down that rotation.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Why would they want to start losing money?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Oh, and flags fly forever…the added boost of potentially being a favorite to win the WS would bring in major amounts of money in the long-run. The Nats Management should be aware of that.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:14 AM
Shut him down this very moment to eliminate the build up towards the deadline and the rest of the team can move on towards the playoffs.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
I can’t wait for the NFL to bring out multi game playoff series and extend the season by 66 games so that we can see this argument means absolutely nothing.
even in the NFL now the better team, top to bottom, coach to special teams players, will win the game when they are supposed to. sure, there are upsets, but when 1 game equals a full week of MLB games or 2 weeks of NBA games, those lucky bounces have more impact.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
+1 from the EIC. Suck it nerds!
August 15th, 2012 at 11:15 AM
Of course you did, while I was on vacation.
/hangs head
//goes back into barn
August 15th, 2012 at 11:16 AM
The Nats completely mismanaged this. They should’ve kept him in extended spring training for a few weeks in April. Then, skipped him a time or two in the rotation in May, June, and July.
That being said, right now they should move to a 6-man rotation and limit him to 5-innings for the next 6 weeks.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:18 AM
While a different situation because of the lack of elbow surgery I was relieved to hear the White Sox aren’t putting an innings cap on Chris Sale…with their rotten farm system this could be the last year they’re good for a while, go after it
August 15th, 2012 at 11:19 AM
That wasn’t about an innings limit. Just a fail-safe put in by the front office to stop Torre from ruining another pitcher.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:20 AM
Now that the NBA has it’s revenue sharing plan in place, they can put on the same illusion that all of their teams are making money that MLB and the NFL does.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:21 AM
I cannot wait for his arm to fall off. I predict mid-September.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:22 AM
I believe they should just skip him 2-3 starts over the next 6 weeks. Have him do everything he normally does on his four “off-days” and even do everything he normally does the day of his start including the pre-game bullpen.
But then, do NOT let him pitch that night. Have a callup or someone else mirror his pregame and then have that person pitch the game.
Then he can go back to his normal four day schedule of preparation and on the fifth day pitch the game.
If he pitched two games, do what I say and skip one, then pitch two more and then skip one, and then see where the TEAM is and where SS is at.
I got to believe this will not only keep him fresh, but also keep him from shutting it down for a month in prep for the playoffs.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:23 AM
You switched horses in midstream.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:26 AM
This.
Though Jason, allow me to give you sincere props for not suggesting he be moved to the bullpen.
Starter innings (the schedule and recovery mainly) are less taxing than bullpen innings (otherwise why wouldn’t the best relievers pitch 100+ innnings every year).
If you see anyone suggest moving Strasburg to the pen (unless it’s on a 5th day schedule) go ahead and assume they are an idiot and move on.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:26 AM
so there’s no upsets in the NBA? at all? never? Not once has the better team lost a playoff series or Final?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
From a merchandise standpoint, very well.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:27 AM
Doubtful, dunno what it is but Sox pitchers over the last decade haven’t really broken down other than Peavy but he came in broken and is now back to being the goods…Coop the Pitcher Whisperer does good work
August 15th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
Now you changed that new horse’s name to Straw Man.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
is there even a sports comparison to shutting him down? Anything like that ever been done?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:28 AM
That or they’ve been borrowing some “encouragement” from Paulie.
/low blow
August 15th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Nice job seeing our discussion on the Boswell piece and making it into a post. I don’t really agree with your logic, and you didn’t really complete the math you started… but it’s better than a lot of your baseball stuff.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Cursed said 99% of the time
August 15th, 2012 at 11:29 AM
Let’s take this another way to make it more understandable why that number is moving, K?
A normal pitcher that makes 35 starts a season throws approximately 3,000 to 3,100 pitches. Stephen Strasburg has thrown 2,165 pitches in 2012. The innings limit was set at 160 because the Nationals believed he would hit 2,800 pitches at that number. He’s under pace as it stands. Go look at Amanda Comak and Adam Kilgore’s blogs over the last 6 weeks (instead of the last day or two). Mike Rizzo’s comments as the weeks have gone along have hinted at just this. They will shut him down at 2,700 to 2,800 pitches depending on the situation the team is in. It would only be a 28.7% work increase from his 2010 season in which he appeared 12 games.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:30 AM
How is Danks shoulder doing?
But I agree on Coop. He’s amazing at what he does.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:30 AM
Obviously, it worked out,” Zimmermann said. “It was best for me. At the time, I wanted to keep pitching, because I felt good. I wanted to keep going. After coming back this year and feeling the way I feel, I look at it as it was the right choice to make.”
What Jordan Zimmerman said earlier this year of being shut down last year at 160IP. But that didn’t make any news since he doesn’t move the needle.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:30 AM
you didn’t bother to read the initial comment i was responding to, did you?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
Very surprised to hear you say this, H-Town.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:31 AM
The Spurs getting Duncan
/had to
August 15th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
They need to make a steroid that repairs the brain speeding up recovery time from a concussion…the lineup is a little impotent without him (I mean DeWayne Wise has been playing of late, didn’t recall him not being part of the Yankees anymore and then all of a sudden there he was hitting 8th)
August 15th, 2012 at 11:32 AM
Not that I can think of…
August 15th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
If there’s no chance of the playoffs, who cares who gets shut down.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:33 AM
Which is still pretty significant, especially after an injury/year off.
I agree with the limit. I agree with being firm on it. I disagree with everything about the implementation. The Red Sox had a trend of skipping starts with their young SPs. I’m not sure why this couldn’t have been done more with Strasburg, or like I’ve been saying since March, start him (and all young pitchers) up in May instead of April.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Oh, right
/Lip begins to quiver
August 15th, 2012 at 11:34 AM
I have zero evidence to back this up, but the cold weather has got to be hell on pitchers arms.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Baseball fans?
August 15th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
A win in April counts the same as a win in September. Stras helping the Nats win 3 games could be the difference between winning the division and the 2nd WC.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Gosh, remember Pedro and how he’d hate Spring games? Towards the end they would switch him around to not start in cold-weather cities early in the year, or give him extra warm-up etc.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:35 AM
Nats didn’t have a fan base until this season.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:36 AM
I agree and with the implementation commentary. But hindsight is 20/20. Nothing they can do about it now.
Just trying to get people to understand it’s about pitch count, not innings.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
I’m sure the pitcher cares about having a long, healthy career.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
+1.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
They still need 10-15k Phillies fans to sell out Phils-Nats games down there
August 15th, 2012 at 11:38 AM
Nats didn’t have a fan base until this season
#Natitude
August 15th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
I couldn’t think this was more wrong. And I do think there is a way to test it (Lisk???) If there is any such thing as momentum in sports, or a team morale affecting performance (exhibit A: Red Sox), then I think the shutting down in September is way worse for how the players will react, including Strasburg if he’s moping around not starting.
In April they had no idea they’d be contending. Also… in September there are divisional games which are more important. Not to mention, the playoffs.
Also, you fail to realize that in the Spring there are more scheduled off days/rainouts, so you can get by with a four-man rotation a lot. You’d only need to use a 6th starter once or twice, instead of for all of Strasburg’s 6 or 7 (or however many) missed starts. The marginal difference is staggering.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:40 AM
Aside from just being wrong, that wasn’t what I said. Baseball fans care what other franchises do. Shutting down a pitcher has an impact on every team in the league pushing for the playoffs. I know it might not bring in pageviews for you, but it really is important.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
I agree with Kogod here and with what Kilgore has to say too.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
Yeah, well I think a lot of people had the foresight in the Spring to start him later, and I haven’t heard a good reason from Rizzo why not.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:41 AM
If you win all your games in April, those September divisional games are not important at all.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:42 AM
JMU School of Medicine’d
/old meme I tried (and failed) to start
August 15th, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Davey Johnson witnessed first hand the impact Gooden’s first 2 years eventually had on his arm (yes, that more than the drugs). I wonder if that is in the back of his mind.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:44 AM
Unless the other team in your division wins all their games in April too, and then can face you head-to-head without your best pitcher.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:45 AM
Doubtful. This is Rizzo’s call, and his alone, at least the way he’s presenting it.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:46 AM
It’s plain to me that much of the baseball musings on this website are negative. Actually, most of the commentary on all sports could be classified as such.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:50 AM
SROD — until 2012, a nation of one.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:51 AM
Yep. If they decided to let Strasburg throw unlimited innings, you could re-write the headline like this and probably end up being right.
It’s really hard to win the WS, and there’s probably a 80% chance they won’t.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:52 AM
Oh stop. Steve Spurrier’s flapjacks have been praised to an absurd degree.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:54 AM
Watch out for Rollo’s SIL.
August 15th, 2012 at 11:59 AM
I agree with the agreement.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:00 PM
I agree with Kogod here and with what Kilgore has to say too.
first of all, forward me the medical literature that says its good to throw 90-110 pitches regularly, then shut it off at an arbitrary number, then pick it back up.
Add me to all those guys this Kogod guy mentions. It’s Lisk with an L-I-S-K. I think there’s a lot of pseudo intellectual science, but I’m going to need to see that actual doctor’s note.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Yeah, this makes little sense. It’s very, very difficult to make the playoffs in baseball. The Nats are a legit WS contender right now. If shutting him down both guaranteed his future health and future playoff appearances, fine. But since it does neither, the move seems presumptuous.
Half of me likes that the Nats want to put the long term health of a player above winning, but then again, they drafted Stratsburg to help them win a World Series. Shutting him down with the best record in baseball does not accomplish that goal.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:06 PM
I’ll always root for ‘em. Howeva, this isn’t the Yanks or the Sawks, who don’t mind spending each year. If the Nats don’t get to the promised land this year, who’s to say they don’t have a rash of injuries next year (position players & pitchers), or guys like Desmond or Gio revert to previous years’ productivity?
Sometimes, your window is now. Shut Strasburg down? Chance for someone else to rep up & step up. Get it done – tomorrow isn’t promised to anyone.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:10 PM
Welcome to my bandwagon. Good seats still available. Pomegranate juice in the onboard fridge, Pink Floyd on the sound system. Kick back and relax – let me do the drivin’.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:19 PM
props to the commenters here. impressive showing. stayed on topic, offered valuable, worthwhile and at times, funny opinions.
see, getting rid of the joker/idiots does work!
August 15th, 2012 at 12:26 PM
Calm down, you’re going to give yourself skin failure…what I’m worried about happening to Strasburg is Bones Eruptus
August 15th, 2012 at 12:27 PM
/ Waits for the banhammer to fall
August 15th, 2012 at 12:33 PM
Dammit. I missed out on being a joker/idiot in this thread but, oh, well. Here’s a good article on the situation. And it’s kind of silly saying that the Strasburg situation is overshadowing and ruining the Nats season. The Nats are still contenders without him. Their staff is more stacked than the Knicks suddenly were once upon a time.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:48 PM
Join me in heroically facing the banhammer.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:53 PM
Inflammatory processes take time, and during the season when these SPs freebase ibuprofen, the body probably doesn’t do a great job healing itself, and rather accumulates small tears and damage, weakening musculoskeletal structures and increasing the chance for injury. I don’t think not throwing all winter is a good thing, but there’s something to be said for limiting cumulative damage to an important ligament.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:56 PM
We would’ve also accepted “fools/trolls”.
/pours one out for ohheelyeah and ddmcd
August 15th, 2012 at 1:01 PM
free Dirt
/just come dig it out of this hole I need dug
//Craigslist’d
August 15th, 2012 at 1:02 PM
I’m with ya, pal. Two’s in.
/backs the heck away…slowly
August 15th, 2012 at 1:03 PM
I think they’re being stubborn with their decision since it was made so early, but don’t we all?
August 15th, 2012 at 1:07 PM
When you write non-trolling posts about sports that tends to happen.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:10 PM
This has nothing to do with what I initially responded to your inane comment. The Warriors tanked roughly 40% of their season (sitting Stephen Curry, among others) at the chance to draft HARRISON BARNES. Hoo-fucking-ray, throw a parade.
My point is not that I don’t understand why this occurs, but I don’t use it to dismiss the sport because I’m not mouthbreather. But to each their own, I suppose.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:15 PM
This was absurd from the beginning. There has to be a better way to handle this other than telling your fans that they have a chance to compete for a World Series, but you’re going to go ahead and bench your best player for the chance to compete in the future.
You’re there now! Anyone who has followed sports(which we all obviously have) knows that there is no thinking about tomorrow unless you’re a bad team. Perhaps this management doesn’t know what it’s like to win and they’re used to falling back on dumb decisions. I would be pissed if I was a Nationals fan.
It might be a good “business” decision but there is no guarantee that they ever make the playoffs again. It’s very had to make the playoffs in baseball. If you’re there, you absolutely have to go for it.
August 15th, 2012 at 1:25 PM
This is what the team and it’s fans deserve, all failure
Sincerely
the 1994 Expos
August 15th, 2012 at 1:26 PM
its fans
dammit