Carson Palmer in 2012 feels to me like one of those Steve Beuerlein in 1999, Lynn Dickey in 1983, pick-a-Warren Moon-season-with-the-Vikings kind of deals. Remember, these rankings are for fantasy football and winning your league by taking advantage of the points systems. While there is a general correlation between real life quality and fantasy quality, it’s not perfect. Get that 3-0 debacle on Monday Night out of your mind, please. I see this Raiders team fitting that 6-10 t0 8-8 mold and chasing points.

Last year, Palmer averaged 8.4 yards a pass. He had the 5th most passing yards over the second half of 2011, and tied for 12th in touchdowns, meaning he was a starting fantasy quarterback once he was playing last year. This year, he’s going as a later end QB2. Either he’s going to decline a lot or he’s being undervalued. While those yards per attempt numbers may regress slightly, he’s also getting to play with Darren McFadden for the first time. The Raiders no longer have Michael Bush and are not set up as a ground and pound, with McFadden and backups Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson. All those guys are fast and can produce YAC. The outside receivers have speed to burn. Palmer will throw for yards, and an above average number of interceptions (but not like last year, where the first game with no practice skewed things.

If I’m looking for a guy I can get on the cheap that can be the lead for a platoon, Palmer’s my guy in 2012.

I also previously talked about why I like Matt Ryan better than most, and I have him going ahead of bigger names, inside the top 7. I did posts on many of the quarterbacks here:

Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder

Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Kevin Kolb, and John Skelton

Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger

Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning

Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick

Those form the basis of these projections, and I did similar work on the others. The numbers listed below are based on a point system of 1 point per 20 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, 6 points for all touchdowns, and -3 points for an interception. You might notice sometimes a player is projected slightly above another one even though he has a slightly lower per start projection. That’s because of risk factors like injury, likelihood of losing job, or age, where I applied a replacement level value if you had to replace a riskier starter for that extra game(s).

TIER ONE

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (29.2)

2. Drew Brees, New Orleans (29.1)

 

TIER TWO

3. Cam Newton, Carolina (26.1)

4. Tom Brady, New England (25.7)

 

TIER THREE

5. Michael Vick, Philadelphia (25.5)

6. Matt Stafford, Detroit (25.0)

7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (23.9)

 

TIER FOUR

8. Tony Romo, Dallas (23.0)

9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (22.5)

10. Eli Manning, NY Giants (21.7)

 

TIER FIVE

11. Carson Palmer, Oakland (21.0)

12. Peyton Manning, Denver (20.8)

13. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis (20.5)

14. Jay Cutler, Chicago (21.0)

15. Philip Rivers, San Diego (20.5)

16. Robert Griffin III, Washington (20.4)

 

TIER SIX

17. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (19.5)

18. Jake Locker, Tennessee (20.1)

19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo (19.6)

20. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (18.5)

21. Matt Schaub, Houston (18.7)

 

TIER SEVEN

22. Alex Smith, San Francisco (17.6)

23. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati (17.6)

24. Christian Ponder, Minnesota (17.6)

25. Kevin Kolb, Arizona (19.2)

26. Mark Sanchez, NY Jets (17.3)

 

TIER EIGHT

27. Sam Bradford, St. Louis (16.5)

28. John Skelton, Arizona (18.0)

29. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland (16.8)

30. Matt Cassel, Kansas City (16.5)

31. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville (16.7)

32. Matt Flynn, Seattle (15.7)

33. Ryan Tannehill (15.5)

 

TIER NINE

34. Russell Wilson, Seattle (20.0)

35. Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee (16.5)

36. Tim Tebow, NY Jets (17.1)

37. Matt Moore, Miami (13.9)

[photo via US Presswire]

Previously: DeMarco Murray Up to #7 in Fantasy Mock Drafts? Overrated: the 2012 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings