DeMarco Murray of Dallas and Chris Johnson have been climbing draft boards in recent weeks. When I finished my rankings over the weekend, finalized my projections, and looked at what the average draft position data was showing, I was a bit stunned to see Murray so high. He is currently going at #7. Why? Has he suddenly become an elite running back?

No. Attrition. As news of injuries, potential suspensions, and holdouts emerge, Murray, along with Johnson, have steadily climbed. It’s kind of like the college football poll thing. They haven’t lost–they haven’t played anyone either–so we just kind of bump them up.

Not me.

Johnson is at #4. He is coming off a year when he played in every game but still only finished 16th in points scored, which if you think about it, means he was below average for a starter. Do I want to spend an elite pick on that? Murray showed flashes last year, had the monster 253 yard rushing game against the Rams, had a couple of others with 20+ carries and 130 yards, before getting hurt. I understand he has promise and is the more attractive option. His current price, though, is expecting elite performance when he takes the field every week. Too steep for me.

In fact (after I set the projections), I went through just now looking for similar players, high ypc, limited action (125 to 225 carries) and compared them based on games played, rush yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The eight most similar at age 23: Craig James, Harold Green, Napoleon Kaufman, Ricky Ervins, Ben Tate, Kevan Barlow, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Brown. Does that list scream “take him by the mid-first round in a fantasy draft?”

Craig James, by the way, had a pretty good year at age 24, ranking 9th. Collectively, that group averaged 172 points and an average finish of RB #16 (my independent projection was for 172 points also, not bad for government work) and almost all of them entered the next year as the starter or lead back in a platoon, just like Murray.

As I talked about over the weekend, it’s about determining replacement starter value for these issues with guys like Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews. Think about it this way: DeMarco Murray, or Maurice Jones-Drew plus two extra starts from someone like Jonathan Stewart while Drew is working back in?

I set these projections by first calculating my team running back production estimates based on recent history for that franchise, with slight adjustments for schedule strength last year or expected strength this year. I then did some regression (top teams will tend to have some decline, bottom teams will tend to show some improvement), and made team-specific adjustments based on personnel changes (line improvements or losses, players coming back from injury, expected improvements in passing game-which leads to touchdown opportunities). Touchdowns are another big variable, and fluctuate far more than yards. I regressed touchdowns to bring in outliers where the TD’s last year were out of whack with yards gained by the position.

After I set team projections, I then went through the top 3 in each team’s depth chart and divided the yards and touchdowns based on expected role, age (because older players more likely to decline), and past performance. Is it guess work? You bet. Hopefully, educated guess work, but I don’t know how Mike Shanahan is going to break down carries, or whether Bill Belichick will still throw a bigger Danny Woodhead wrench into the Patriots’ projections than I did. The good thing is, if you disagree on the team division, you can bump one player up at the expense of a teammate in the rotation.

Here they are, divided in tiers. When you see players ranked higher than their raw point projection, it’s because of the deal I talked about above. When Marshawn Lynch is out, you get to start someone else. Performance above baseline matters.

TIER ONE

1. Arian Foster, Houston (252)

2. Ray Rice, Baltimore (251)

3. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia (230)

 

TIER TWO

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (216) *Jones-Drew adjusted for being limited in first two games due to holdout. I previously talked about why I thought MJD was a top 4 pick.

5. Darren McFadden, Oakland (210)

 

TIER THREE

6. Ryan Mathews, San Diego (178). *Mathews projection is based on missing 2 games.

7. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (162). *Lynch projection based on potential of being suspended 4 games.

8. Chris Johnson, Tennessee (188)

9. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (169) *Peterson, who is off the PUP list and active, is ranked here based on possibility of still missing/being limited first two game. See my earlier thoughts on Peterson here. If he plays in preseason, shoot him up ahead of Mathews.

10. Matt Forte, Chicago (183)

11. Trent Richardson, Cleveland (164) *Richardson projection based on missing 1 game, limited in first game back. Prior to the injury and arthroscopic surgery, he would have been 5th to 6th on this list.

 

TIER FOUR

12. Steven Jackson, St. Louis (173)

13. DeMarco Murray, Dallas (172)

14. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (171)

15. Fred Jackson, Buffalo (169)

16. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay (160)

 

TIER FIVE

17. Shonn Greene, NY Jets (153). I earlier explained why I had Shonn Greene higher than most.

18. Frank Gore, San Francisco (151). Don’t be afraid to take a chance on Gore at a low end RB2. The age related decline and roster additions are accounted for, but there is upside if taken in the right spot.

19. Darren Sproles, New Orleans (149) *Sproles would bump to top of tier four in a PPR league, I previously broke down Sproles.

20. Peyton Hillis, Kansas City (147)

21. Reggie Bush, Miami (147)

22. Stevan Ridley, New England (146)

23. Ahmad Bradshaw, NY Giants (146)

24. Michael Turner, Atlanta (145)

25. Willis McGahee, Denver (145)

 

TIER SIX

26. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati (143)

27. Roy Helu, Washington (141)

28. Donald Brown, Indianapolis (135)

 

TIER SEVEN

29. Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh (128) *this projection based on Mendenhall returning after week 7, working into a platoon situation. He’ll have more value early and would be a good pairing with someone like Lynch, Mathews, etc, and would project fifth tier if starter all year.

30. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina (127)

31. Cedric Benson, Green Bay (127)

32. Mark Ingram, New Orleans (126)

33. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo (124)

 

TIER EIGHT

34. James Starks, Green Bay (113)

35. Beanie Wells, Arizona (110)

36. Evan Royster, Washington (109)

37. Ben Tate, Houston (107)

38. Pierre Thomas, New Orleans (106)

39. Ryan Williams, Arizona (104)

40. Felix Jones, Dallas (104)

 

TIER NINE

41. Jahvid Best, Detroit (100)

42. Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta (98)

43. Michael Bush, Chicago (98)

44. LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay (97)

45. Daniel Thomas, Miami (94)

46. Bernard Scott, Cincinnati (92)

47. Mikel LeShoure, Detroit (92)

 

TIER TEN

48. Kevin Smith, Detroit (90)

49. Ronnie Hillman, Denver (90)

50. Joe McKnight, NY Jets (89)

51. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina (88)

52. David Wilson, NY Giants (87)

53. Jonathan Dwyer, Pittsburgh (87)

54. Shane Vereen, New England (86)

55. Isaiah Pead, St. Louis (83)

56. Montario Hardesty, Cleveland (83)

57. Kendall Hunter, San Francisco (77)

58. Jackie Battle, San Diego (72)

59. Taiwan Jones, Oakland (71)

60. Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville (69)

[photo via US Presswire]