Pac 12 Preview: Five Questions Heading Into 2012
Can USC win the BCS title? The Trojans are postseason eligible for the first time since 2009 and, with a loaded roster, many expect them to make the most of it. On offense, USC brings back Heisman favorite Matt Barkley, All-American caliber wide receivers Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, four offensive line starters and a backfield enhanced with Silas Redd. On defense, the Trojans return an excellent back seven and four players who made an All-Pac 12 team last season. There are concerns – three new defensive line starters, replacing Matt Kalil at left tackle and overall depth with a rash of injuries – but those concerns are surmountable. The pressing obstacle may be Oregon. USC will have to beat them and, likely, beat them again in the Pac 12 title game.
Can Oregon win the BCS Title? Oregon has been overshadowed by USC in the runup, but for no substantial reason. The Ducks have finished in the top six in SRS in four out of the last five years with Chip Kelly’s offense. The only other school to do that has been Alabama. Oregon should be solid on defense, returning five of their front seven and three out of four in the secondary from a unit that ranked 35th in yards per play. The issue will be how they transition on offense, losing both Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. Neither Bryan Bennett nor Marcus Mariota has Thomas’ experience at quarterback, but both may be more talented. Though Oregon has no ready replacement for James, Kenjon Barner can replicate his steady production and DeAnthony Thomas may be an even greater home run threat. Chip Kelly can surely tailor his system to fit the shifting personnel. Oregon may be the one team in the conference that can beat USC, but they are in the same predicament for a BCS Title bid. They probably have to do so twice.
Will PACtion arrive in 2012? The conference of Kelly and Kiffin welcomes two more prodigious offensive minds in Mike Leach and Rich Rodriguez. The fireworks will come, quite conveniently as the conference enhances its national TV presence, but that may take time. Leach seems better situated for immediate success. He has multiple options at quarterback. He has an All-American candidate at wideout in Marquess Wilson. His base system, using a relatively small number of plays, can be implemented more quickly. The defense needs work, but the Cougars should at least be entertaining. Rodriguez has a tougher task at Arizona. His system does not require a White/Robinson style runner (though that is helpful). What it does require is mental speed (which takes time and repetition) and physical speed (which at many positions will have to be recruited). Rich Rod does not have as much dismantling as he had to do with Michigan, but he still must perform some substantial rebuilding.
What becomes of Stanford without Andrew Luck? Andrew Luck steered Stanford to 23 wins the past two seasons. With the NFL’s No. 1 Draft Pick departing, we will see whether the foundation Jim Harbaugh left is sustainable. David Shaw brought in a great recruiting class, including three elite offensive line prospects, though those players should not be factors this season. The Cardinal return a strong front seven on defense and the tools for a power offense with Stepfan Taylor at tailback and two big, talented tight ends. Like last season, though, Stanford won’t have elite athleticism at wide receiver and in the secondary. Unlike last season, they won’t have Andrew Luck’s superior execution in a smaller field to make up for it. Even a good start from Brett Nottingham or Josh Nunes will still see their offensive production drop considerably. Stanford’s foundation may be solid, but next season could see a significant decline.
Will Mike Riley and/or Jeff Tedford be coaching in 2013? The new Pac 12 TV deal will radically increase the conference’s revenue and exposure. Programs can spend heavily on salaries and state-of-the-art facilities. This has resulted in an arms race where complacent mediocrity, once acceptable, can set a school far behind. Oregon State is coming off two losing seasons under Mike Riley. Jeff Tedford, purportedly a quarterback guru, last had a Cal passer rank in the Top 60 in 2007. Both have received some leeway due to past success, but with a Pac 12 North consisting of an Oregon juggernaut, a revamped Stanford and burgeoning programs at Washington and Washington State neither can afford to fall further behind.
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12 Responses to “Pac 12 Preview: Five Questions Heading Into 2012”
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August 1st, 2012 at 4:51 PM
Go Ducks.
August 1st, 2012 at 4:54 PM
Nice read Duffy.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:04 PM
Good write up. Leech and DickRod will make things interesting. Neither will ever field a title contender, but they play the spoiler role well.
Still think the conference is pretty down this year. Oregon and Stanford both take a big step back.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:07 PM
Fixed.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:07 PM
Things overlooked:
Stanford returns the fewest OL starts of any Pac12 school (never good) and has to replace two All Americans there. Huge potential for them to regress based on that alone: they won’t be able to overrun everybody this season.
WSU was already one of the top passing teams in the country last season. There’s not a lot of room for improvement, and their defense doesn’t “need work”, it’s horrendous. It needs an overhaul, and unlike UW’s similarly horrendous defense, there’s no talent there for WSU. None. People are pencilling them in for a bowl, but that’s probably going to be a struggle giving up 50 a game.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:19 PM
with a loaded roster
J.R. Smith transferred to USC, too?
August 1st, 2012 at 5:21 PM
Without digging deep (I would’ve left that for resident Pac-12 analyst Cassino, even before seeing his comment) I really would have guessed from my cursory eyeball tests of the two teams last season that Arizona is in a much better position for a quick turnaround than Washington State.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:23 PM
USC’s gonna go undefeated then lose to LSU or BAMA in the NC.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:34 PM
USC’s gonna go undefeated then lose to LSU or BAMA in the NC.
Their 2013 class is downright stupid.
If they can stay qualified, USC is set up to be good for a long time.
August 1st, 2012 at 5:46 PM
I can undefeated or 1-loss USC vs. undefeated SEC champ in the NC game. If SEC weeds each other out and no one’s undefeated, USC vs. Big 12 champ.
August 1st, 2012 at 6:30 PM
Both need their offenses to work. Washington State has a potentially very good quarterback and a lot of pieces at skill positions. Liability on the offensive line…but…Leach’s offense gets the ball out quickly.
Arizona moving from a predominately passing offense to a more hybrid/run under Rich Rod. Lost Foles and four of their top five receivers. They are closer to where they need to be on defense, but probably need a couple years to get the offense functioning on all cylinders. Washington State should be able to at least score on people this year.
August 1st, 2012 at 8:26 PM
Loss of Foles won’t hurt them too much, Matt Scott is a really good mobile QB. Arizona will probably be better than most anticipate next season. WSU may have a better record by virtue of their schedule being a bit easier (WSU doesn’t play USC, Arizona does and has an almost certain loss against Oklahoma State), but right now, I’d much rather go against WSU than Zona.