Between his balky back, his good-but-not-great sophomore season, and his struggles at the NBA combine, Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger has been sliding in the draft for weeks. He was considered a Top 10 pick most of the season, but then was pushed to the lottery in March, and following last week’s bad back report, there’s a chance Sullinger slides out of the lottery and into the 20s. Andy Katz reported today that Sullinger hasn’t been invited to the NBA green room. (Bet Matt Leinart wishes he wasn’t invited to the 2006 NFL draft.)

Let’s look at Sullinger’s career arc over the last 15 months:

March 26th, 2011: After losing to Kentucky in the Elite 8, Sullinger says he’ll return to OSU. Nobody believes him.

March 27th, 2011: Sullinger’s dad says his son is staying at Ohio State for a 2nd year.

June 27, 2011: I had Sullinger going 10th in the 2012 draft to Denver.

Nov. 7, 2011: I rated Sullinger as the No. 1 player in college basketball.

March 17, 2012: What’s wrong with Jard Sullinger?

April 4, 2012: Sullinger is projected to maybe be the next Kevin Love.

June 22, 2012: Sullinger’s back a concern.

If you look at the 2011 draft, Sullinger was a lock to go in the Top 10, and perhaps in the Top 5. Would he have bricked at the Combine and hurt his stock? Perhaps. Let’s look at the power forwards taken in the 2011 lottery:

2. Derrick Williams (combo forward) – Sullinger wasn’t going ahead of Williams.
3. Enes Kanter (PF/C) – Never played a college game, looked … eh as a rookie.
4. Tristian Thompson (PF/C) – Destroys Sullinger athletically, but remains offensively challenged.
6. Jan Vesely (F) – Project. Years away. Wiz would have gone Sullinger, I bet.
7. Bismack Biyombo (PF) – More upside and athletic than Sullinger, but has no offensive game.
13/14. Morris Twins – Sullinger gets taken ahead of these guys.

My guess is Sullinger would have gone 6th last year. I won’t attempt to calculate how much money he lost – too depressing, and Sullinger seems like good people. He also seems like the type of fellow who will show up at training camp 15 pounds lighter and ready to prove everybody wrong. The guess here is he’ll contribute to a playoff team next year as an 8th or 9th guy.

Indiana’s Cody Zeller isn’t overweight or battling any injuries that I’m aware of, but I sure hope he doesn’t go through this next season. [Dispatch]