R.A. Dickey May Be a Late Knuckleball Bloomer, But He’s Here to Stay
Last night, R.A. Dickey threw his second consecutive one-hitter, as the Mets beat the Orioles. In doing so, Dickey became the first National League pitcher since Mort Cooper in 1943 to throw consecutive one-hitters.
Tim linked an interview from Sunday in the New York Post, and I must say that R.A. Dickey is someone to root for. Born in 1974, with two daughters and two sons, and a late career surge after a change in direction. I think I can really get into the R.A. Dickey phenomenon. If he were only left handed, he would be perfect.
Dickey’s amazing run this year (2.00 ERA this year, 11-1 record, and more than a strikeout per inning) is made even more incredible by the fact that he is soon to be 38 years old and basically re-invented himself as a knuckleball pitcher who is just emerging and fully learning the pitch in the last few years.
I went back through baseball history to find any pitchers who had anything remotely similar to Robert Alan Dickey’s career. Dickey’s first good season came at age 35 with the Mets, when he was 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA. In over 70 starts since 2010, he sports a sub-3.00 ERA with the Mets, so while this current stretch is astonishing, he’s been pretty good for three years now in New York.
Before that, though, his career ERA was 5.48 scattered over 48 starts in parts of 7 different seasons. There is only one other player who had three above average ERA seasons (150+ IP) at age 35 to 37 and had never done it before. That would be a guy nicknamed the Wild Elk of the Wasatch, Ed Heusser, and that was for the Reds from 1944-1946, when younger men were off serving in the War. It really is truly unprecedented. Rick Reed, a former Met, was also a pretty good pitcher from 35 to 37, but he had his breakout year at age 32. Most pitchers who are good at age 35 to 37 were good at a much younger age as well.
What Dickey does have in common with a noticeable subset of the pitchers who were good from age 35 to 37, though, is his pitch of choice. Knuckleballers don’t have to rely speed as much, and thus are a little more impervious to the effects of age. Of the 41 pitchers in baseball history who were above average all three years from age 35 to 37, six others relied on a knuckle ball or knuckle curve: Charlie Hough, Don Sutton, Phil Neikro, Dizzy Trout, Ted Lyons and Bucky Walters. Joe Neikro, Tim Wakefield and Tom Candiotti didn’t quite make the list, but had pretty good years during that span. Most of those knucklers, by the way, were able to have careers that extended into their 40′s. Dickey may have started late, but I wouldn’t rule him out for the next few years.
Where does this season by Dickey currently rank among the best season by a 37 year old of all-time, regardless of what kind of pitcher? Pretty highly if he can finish respectably after his 11-1 start with a 2.00 ERA.
You’d probably have to put in on pace to go Top 5, with these other seasons:
- Randy Johnson, 2001, 21-6, 2.49 ERA, 376 K’s
- Curt Schilling, 2004, 21-6, 3.26 ERA
- Dazzy Vance, 1928, 22-10, 2.09 ERA
- Walter Johnson, 1925, 20-7, 3.07 ERA
- Cy Young, 1904, 26-16, 1.97 ERA
- Lefty Grove, 1937, 17-9, 3.04 ERA
- Babe Adams, 1937, 17-10, 1.97 ERA
- Dennis Martinez, 1992, 16-11, 2.47 ERA
- Virgil Trucks, 1954, 19-12, 2.79 ERA
- Joe Niekro, 1982, 17-12, 2.47 ERA
That’s some pretty tall cotton. R.A. Dickey isn’t going to keep throwing 1-hitters, but there’s a good chance that at age 37 he not only plays in but starts his first All-Star game, and that he is around baffling hitters for a few more years.
[data from baseball-reference.com, photo via US Presswire]

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29 Responses to “R.A. Dickey May Be a Late Knuckleball Bloomer, But He’s Here to Stay”
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June 19th, 2012 at 3:18 PM
Anybody ever faced or at least played catch with someone throwing a good knuckleball?
It’s mesmerizing.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
Really is. I wonder how personal catchers know how to handle them. Plenty of practice with that pitcher or just another skillset?
June 19th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
My kid is almost two. I would think it’s extremely rare for someone to start knuckleballing even back in Little League. Might be fun to try to teach him.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
and I must say that R.A. Dickey is someone to root for
Who did he kill?
/obligatory’d
June 19th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
AMAZING!!!
June 19th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
Kid I played with in H.S would throw one, if it was on it was untouchable… On the other hand he got rocked a couple of times when it wasn’t moving.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Yup. Caught one right in the sack when i was 12 when i was playing catcher catching pitches from my cousin in the back yard who throws a crazy knuckler. Never again. I was so scared every pitch because i had no clue where the fucking thing was going.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
so are we still talking about Dickey when he gets blown up in 3 inning for his next start because his knuckleball is flat?
June 19th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
that was my career as a catcher in little league, no one on my team could pitch and we didn’t have a catchers mitt. wild pitches all over the place.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
I don’t think anyone is saying he’ll never give up runs again.
This run is truly remarkable. Good for the Mets.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
My best friend pitched in high school for a decent D1 high school team and we played on some reputable summer/travel teams. He was a knuckeball pitcher. I’ve caught tons of hours of knuckleballs.
For catching, you have to stay back and avoid the temptation to smother the ball. The late action causes many catchers to get caught up on it and quit moving. You are going to get hit in your equipment moreso and there will be some passed balls, dropped third strikes etc.
The main thing is you hit more by foul tips and shit, IMO.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:37 PM
So he’s NOT the new Jeremy Lin? You’re fired.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
This is an oddity too, but my dad had a 1940′s (??) style catchers mitt. Learning to catch on one of those is a great tool for learning how to become a better catcher.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:42 PM
Knuckleballs dont do so well in the cold weather either. Hotter the better.
Leyland fucked up in 1991, he should have adjusted his rotation to have Wakefield pitch in ATL instead of in PIT.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
This is the first time this has ever happened. Ever. The two daughters and two sons part really blows my mind. That’s absurd.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
I’ve seen some good ones too. No chance to hit them. Most kids that try at the Little League and high school levels throw them with a little bit of overspin rotation so they’re little more than a straight change that someone should murder into the gap.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
So this doesn’t answer the main question: Lisk – Do I sell high on him before he loses the knuckleball in the second half or do I ride it out for the rest of the season?
June 19th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
no, i’m just skeptical of any player that comes out of the blue like this keeping sustained success when they’ve never done it before. good for him, but if his knuckler isn’t there for a couple starts he’s an extremely ordinary pitcher.
no, but it’s a bit early to be crowning this guy as the NL cy young winner
June 19th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
Wait til it stops rolling and pick it up
/Uecker
June 19th, 2012 at 3:50 PM
Dan Haren has about 8 first half season cy young awards.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:51 PM
they are even more grand and shiny than Rex Ryan’s preseason super bowl trophies.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Lisk is talking about himself, no? (Well, and Dickey too, obviously).
June 19th, 2012 at 3:58 PM
I recall Candiotti always being slightly defensive about stating he had thrown a knuckle-curve, not a true knuckle ball.
I went online and couldn’t find anything on that, but it did say Candiotti is in the International Bowling Hall of Fame. Good job Candy.
June 19th, 2012 at 4:03 PM
I must say, this is the first year in a long time I didn’t do fantasy football or fantasy baseball. Haven’t missed it for a second.
June 19th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
How about Yardwork? Do you miss that? Because I miss Yardwork.
June 19th, 2012 at 4:06 PM
i’ve got fantasy baseball teams this year and haven’t really paid any attention to them, haven’t missed it either.
June 19th, 2012 at 4:12 PM
/pours one out for Yardwork
//attendance is up
///ratings down
////tbl’d
June 19th, 2012 at 4:22 PM
This is where I have to disagree with you, Lisk. Dickey does rely on velocity. The quotes from Tampa and Baltimore hitters even indicate this. It’s the fact that his fastball comes in closer to 83-84 whereas other knuckleball pitchers threw in the 70s. He also changes the velocity on his knuckleball and throws it for strikes at a more frequent rate than other knuckleball pitchers. The strike throwing can be maintained, albeit at a lesser rate than conventional pitcher. The velocity will go down with age and he’s already 37. Here’s a good graph that indicates how well Dickey varies his speed when he’s ahead in the count.
In the last two years, Dickey has only lost 1.7 MPH on average for his sinker and fastball. At 37, that’s likely to see a decline every year. The more velocity he loses, the less effective he becomes. The outlier is that he’s seen a 0.9 MPH increase in his knuckleball this year. If he’s found a way to increase that velocity and can keep doing it, then he’s got a better shot at maintaining this. All the data can be found here in the dropdown charts.
June 19th, 2012 at 4:27 PM
For a guy that only throws 3 pitches (and really he only throws 2 at a consistent rate), the variation in his velocity on his knuckleball is pretty profound. This is from his start yesterday. The three dips are the 3 curveballs he threw. Otherwise, it’s pretty much knuckleballs and fastballs, with pretty much at least a 2 MPH variation from pitch to pitch. That, combined with the movement on the knuckleball, is tough to pick up.
I still think he only keeps this up for a year or two at most. Once that fastball falls below 80 MPH, he’s due for a serious regression because the deception between knuckleball and fastball won’t be there.