NBA Finals: How Good Will TV Ratings Be?
Interesting subplot to Durant vs. LeBron, Westbrook vs. Wade, Ibaka vs. Bosh, and two mediocre coaches going at it in the NBA Finals – what the TV ratings will be like for two tiny TV markets. According to this 2008 list, Miami is the 16th largest TV market; Oklahoma City is 45th.
Numbers should be strong, regardless. The NBA is a star-driven league – as opposed to MLB, which is team-driven, and NFL, which is … yeah, America just loves football – and it doesn’t get any better than the league’s leading scorer vs. the league’s MVP. Between LeBron going for his first title and Durant’s dynasty in the making, expect monster numbers. If the Eastern Conference Finals are any indication, we could be in store for some Jordan-level ratings in the NBA Finals:
Boston at Miami, Game 4: 7.9 overnight
Miami at Boston, Game 6: 8.2 overnight (adjusted to a 7.8 per ESPN)
Boston at Miami, Game 7: 9.1 overnight
Jordan pulled anywhere from a 14-22 rating in 1997 and 1998 (Bulls beat the Jazz both years) and then the league’s ratings dipped for a few years, bottoming out in 2003 during the snoozer than was San Antonio over New Jersey. Since the Finals moved from NBC to ABC in 2002, here are the three highest-rated games:
15.6/27 Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers Game 7, 2010 NBA Finals
13.8/23 Los Angeles Lakers vs. Detroit Pistons Game 5, 2004 NBA Finals
13.3/23 Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat Game 6, 2011 NBA Finals
LeBron vs. Durant should easily top those numbers for games 5-7. Will the series end up as one of the highest rated in NBA Finals history? I doubt it can crack this group:
NBC 1998 Chicago Bulls 4, Utah Jazz 2 18.7
NBC 1993 Chicago Bulls 4, Phoenix Suns 2 17.9
NBC 1997 Chicago Bulls 4, Utah Jazz 2 16.8
NBC 1996 Chicago Bulls 4, Seattle Supersonics 2 16.7
CBS 1987 Los Angeles Lakers 4, Boston Celtics 2 15.9
But my guess will be an average of 12.9. That’s incredibly optimistic, considering Mavericks/Heat only got a 10.2 last year, and Lakers/Celtics only got a 10.6 the year prior.
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56 Responses to “NBA Finals: How Good Will TV Ratings Be?”
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June 11th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
At any point, through the years of rebuttals in your comments section or the various and numerous other sources, does it ever cross your mind that technology and the way people consume sports has changed over the last 15 years? You’re comparing George Mikan to Dwight Howard here, Jason.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
^what he said
June 11th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
What a convenient narrative for the NBA.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
I don’t see the word “hate” anywhere in this piece. People love to hate and they have to watch to hate, so they’ll watch the hell out of Lebron in hope he does something hateful.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
so strange seeing all those non-TBL links in the post.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
is this the official guess the ratings post?
If so, 11.2 average and I’ll pick the iTunes gift card.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:10 PM
better call the amish because this roof’s got ratings through it.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:11 PM
Well I’d rather read a ratings post than one about Kawhi Leonard checking Westbrook, how to Coach Mac would coach the Thunder, trading Pierce for Howard, or trading D Wade
June 11th, 2012 at 3:12 PM
SC – of course the way people consume sports has changed over the last 15 years. what did you read hear that made you believe that?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:12 PM
Serious question how the rating work. I know they can be broken down by time segment, but the overall ratings quoted above, does that just include every household that ever flipped the channel, no matter how long they watched for? So if my wife is watching some crap show, and I flip over during a commercial for 2 minutes, do I count in the ratings the next morning?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:13 PM
I’ll watch but I’ll turn games off if the Heat take double digit leads and check back later.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:13 PM
Surprised Bulls-Sonics wasn’t #1 what with Frank Brickowski’s ability to move the needle involved
June 11th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
what about if the tv’s only on in the background and im not really watching…DOES THAT COUNT?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:15 PM
Ooh, ooh. I wanna play.
I guess 12.5 rating. When I win, I’ll pick one Swedish jersey with “Max Ralf” on the back, XXXL please.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
What were the Western Conference ratings?
i laughed
June 11th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
What about people like my dad who refuses to use the digital channel guide and flips through the channels one at a time? Does he boost the ratings of every single channel?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
it takes a lot more effort to move a needle in space.
/rimshot
June 11th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
holy shit…i hope he doesn’t have directv.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:19 PM
OT:
Are there any Mike Patton fans here? How in the hell had I never heard of Peeping Tom before?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:19 PM
people like your dad should have that power, it will take away from those assholes who watch “Toddlers and Tiaras”, “My Big Fat Gypsy Weddings”, and “Two and a half men”
June 11th, 2012 at 3:19 PM
So if my wife is watching some crap show, and I flip over during a commercial for 2 minutes, do I count in the ratings the next morning? St. Bear
I’ve always wondered that as well. How long does my cable box need to be on a channel to count in the ratings?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:20 PM
Bit of an exaggeration, he doesn’t flip through every channel. He doesn’t watch a lot of different channels, and knows where the groupings are that he likes, so he’ll go to the first Encore, and flip through the 10 or so movie channels, then skip to the HD networks, and so on.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
I read you comparing ratings from ’11, ’10 and ’04 to those from ’83, ’89, ’96, ’97 and ’98 and asking if this year’s would approach that. Unless it was rhetorical I don’t think those are logical questions that can be asked.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
you know what’s sad? your dad flips thru more channels than i actually watch and yet i spend well over $100/mo on tv.
/facepalm
June 11th, 2012 at 3:24 PM
Unless you guys have a Nielson box hooked up, you don’t count.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
better than [insert obscure beisbol series here].
/McIntroll
June 11th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
i haven’t seen this pic in years…mad beard props, ex-POTUS.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
Who are these mythical creatures with Nielson boxes on their TVs?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
mein fuhrer…you look so majestic on ze sled.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
Yeesh. Has his wife ever been attractive? Ever?
June 11th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
I’d wager Mikan was never a whiny, egotistical bitch.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
i find her power and intelligence attractive.
but not more attractive than yours, fran townsend.
/swoons
June 11th, 2012 at 3:29 PM
My prediction for the Seattle market: 0.0
June 11th, 2012 at 3:29 PM
I’m sure there were copious amounts of mind altering drugs taken throughout their relationship.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
Unless you guys have a Nielson box hooked up, you don’t count.
Yeah, I know that. Pretend Nielson boxes actually existed and I had one.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
Had to google her. Nice legs, actually very nice legs. Cheekbones that would cut glass.
She works that “flyaway” hairstyle, though. Bit of a five-head, but I wouldn’t kick her out of bed for eating Tostitos.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
NBA Finals: How Good Will TV Ratings Be?
better than [insert obscure beisbol series here].
/McIntroll
You forgot to add “//posts Twitter feed of obscure ESPN writer in which said writer asserts that baseball is losing relevance and then pretends like he’s not implicitly pushing said obscure writer’s views.”
June 11th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
The only Nielson box I’m interested in is this one.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
The sled’s name is Rosenbudd.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:37 PM
I was convinced that link was something entirely different.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:39 PM
Honey Badger and Bama QB in Twitter pissing match. Damn, can’t wait for CFB to get here.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
I believe this subplot interests less than 1% of the viewers watching.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
That would be less of a box and more of a hallway, with a hotdog hurtling down it.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
bridgette want snu-snu.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Death by snu-snu.
/ Fry’d
June 11th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Speaking of football, we put together a softball tournament and auction on Saturday to benefit cancer and I won a pair of Browns/Eagles tickets for $130 that I thought were for week 1. Turns out they’re preseason tickets August 24th. It it wasn’t for such a good cause I would be a little salty.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
You should be salty over the fact that the Browns are involved.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
That pissing match lacks piss.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
i will watch right up until the series clenching game for the heat. if they win, i will be taking a total sports hiatus for a week.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:48 PM
easy there…the browns won’t be THAT involved in the game.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
This post is magical.
June 11th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
LOL’d
June 11th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
I’ll go out on a limb and say they under-perform the 10.6 from two years ago.
June 11th, 2012 at 4:16 PM
Oddly enough, the current ESPN, Foxsports, and SI.com previews do not mention this “interesting subplot” at all.
June 11th, 2012 at 4:25 PM
it is interesting to look at the last 30 of NFL/NBA/NLF. NFL strangely has soared. NBA dipped and now back up. MLB down.
June 11th, 2012 at 8:39 PM
This will get HUGE ratings!