Spain met Italy in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals. The aspiring champion played the world’s reigning one. They played to 120 minutes of gridlock. Cesc Fabregas converted the final penalty to send Spain through to the semifinals. It was a turning point. Spain’s unexpected resolution convinced many, including, perhaps, themselves.

Your classic Italian outfit would retreat, defend and stifle Spain. The present Italian team is cut differently. Their back four is weak. They have no Gattuso-type killer in midfield. Prandelli built them to play proactively and hold possession. The Spanish won’t let them see much of it.

Spain should control the match, but must ensure their back four does not get caught out in transition play. Italy has Andrea Pirlo, the sport’s best deep-lying, long ball passer. He has two enticing targets in Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli who can slip in behind the defense and finish. A momentary brain fart could lead to a far different result.

[Photo via Getty]

[Update: Spain's squad has become a parody of itself. Neither Llorente, Torres, nor Negredo will start for Spain. It is a 4-6-0 formation with Cesc Fabregas. The team that struggles with direction has become even less direct. Baffling.]