NBA Draft 2012: Comparing Lottery Players to Former and Current NBA Players
We left Anthony Davis off the list because, obviously, he’s equal parts Bill Russell and Tim Duncan and everyone knows it. Obviously. The comps will come from my NBA viewing history – roughly 1985 to now.
Brad Beal — He thinks Ray Allen and Dwyane Wade, so who are we to argue with him? Worst case scenario? LaBradford Smith.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — Very challenging to peg due to his freakish defensive skills (Rodney McCray? A taller Tony Allen?) and innate scoring ability around the basket. Wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into Andre Iguodala.
Thomas Robinson — Can he defend power forwards? Can he keep up with small forwards? In that way, he reminds me of Derrick Williams, who Minnesota drafted last year. A ceiling of Chris Webber, who was a double-double machine for six years.
Andre Drummond — Raw. A taller Drew Gooden with better shot-blocking ability? A more athletic PJ Brown? A best case scenario of … Kevin Willis? Don’t scoff, Kevin Willis had a damn good NBA career.
Austin Rivers, Duke — You’ll hear a lot of Monta Ellis, but for me, when I watched Rivers, I saw Russell Westbrook – about the same size (Westbrook measured 6-2 without shoes at the Combine with a 6-7 wingspan), kind of the same relentless, attacking style, and zero fear. I haven’t taken the pulse of the pundits on Rivers yet since the lottery but I’m fairly certain I’m more enamored with him than everyone else. How about Sleepy Floyd?
Harrison Barnes — Most polarizing player in the draft. Catch and shoot specialist who often settles for jumpers when perhaps he should post up more. He isn’t in the Carmelo Anthony class from the outside or inside yet. Can he get there? If you saw him at UNC for two years, you’d say no. I made this Barnes comp during the college hoop season and I’m sticking with it: Glen Rice.
Damian Lillard, Weber State — A cross between Jrue Holiday of the 76ers (probably his ceiling), George Hill of the Pacers, and Rodney Stuckey of the Pistons.
Tyler Zeller — Tall, thin, moderately athletic, can block shots, but his frame isn’t quite there yet. I’m a big Zeller fan. I think he’ll be better than Spencer Hawes, who some have compared him to. I think he could be better than Chris Kaman, too. Absolute best case scenario of Pau Gasol?
Kendall Marshall — Throughout his college career, I thought he was a carbon copy of Marcus Williams, the successful UConn point guard who never really translated into the NBA. He’s a lefty with a slick handle like Mike Conley, but not as good of a driver or shooter (yet), but a better passer.
Jared Sullinger — Yeah, we heard the Kevin Love comps. We scoffed at those. I’m thinking DeJuan Blair.
Meyers Leonard — A more athletic Chris Dudley? I’ve been a bit slow to get on the Leonard bandwagon. I’d definitely take Zeller over him. Maybe down the road Leonard is Horace Grant, a serviceable big who rebounds, plays defense, and hits the occasional 10-footer?
Jeremy Lamb — I see some Tracy McGrady in Lamb. I don’t know if Lamb is as aggressive and will be able to lead the league in scoring, but maybe he’ll be able to score like Mitch Richmond?
John Henson — While he was at UNC, I thought he was basically Ed Davis (now with Toronto). Could his ceiling be an Alonzo Mourning-type player defensively (Henson supposedly has a similar 7-foot-6 wingspan; let’s see what he officially measures at the combine) and lead the league in blocks? Small chance of that happening. I can see Henson having an Otis Thrope-type career offensively – next to the right center – while swatting shots like Elden Campbell.
Royce White — With Rivers, he’s probably the 2nd player in the lottery I love a lot more than anyone else putting out mock drafts. How much do I like him? At times, I’ve seen a less polished, larger (a svelte 270 pounds) version of Scottie Pippen. If you tried to list the forward/centers who played best against Kentucky last year, did anyone do better than White? In the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney, he had 23 points and nine rebounds and anyone who watched the game had to come away thinking, “he was the best player on the court tonight.” Hopefully, White interviews well and gets that lottery money. He doesn’t shoot it well enough to be a Lamar Odom or a bigger version of Iguodala. How about Paul Millsap of the Jazz?
Dion Waiters — Because of his methodical yet aggressive drives to the basket, some like to compare him to Dwyane Wade. I’d say that is his best case scenario (but an unlikely one). More realistic: Marcus Thornton, the scorer in Sacramento. A tougher, more aggressive Anthony Peeler?
Perry Jones, Baylor, SF — A hodgepodge of players, but for me, Darius Miles applies. Long, athletic, but not quite tough on the court or mentally (Miles let high school/AAU success and money go to his head; Jones plays as if he doesn’t love basketball). Anthony Randolph of the Wolves also applies because Jones is teeming with potential. Another offensive-minded small forward comp could be Thaddeus Young of the 76ers.

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108 Responses to “NBA Draft 2012: Comparing Lottery Players to Former and Current NBA Players”
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June 7th, 2012 at 2:18 PM
While I’m sure several people will rip you for these comparisons, the only time I ever get the sense that you really like sports is when you talk CBB/NBA. It’s refreshing to see, actually. I enjoyed this post.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:18 PM
I wouldn’t call Barnes a catch and shoot guy. You might be getting confused by the fact that Harrison Barnes resembles Glenn Rice.
/old skool ESPN Page2 “He’s looking at you”‘d
June 7th, 2012 at 2:21 PM
Awesome.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
The guy had alligator arms. But he was a hard worker. I used to see him every day in the 95 degree summers running the stadium stairs at Rice University.
Incidentally, Rice’s baseball coach Wayne Graham signed a five year extension yesterday. The guy is 76 years old.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
I’ll be honest…I thought this was a made-up name when I first read it.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:22 PM
If Tom Robinson has anywhere near the career of Chris Webber i’ll be floored. Webber had his quirks but much like LeBron he got the “unclutch” label and so his excellent NBA career often gets overlooked.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:23 PM
Westbrooks’s combine numbers were less impressive than you would expect, given the athleticism he displays.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:24 PM
Same, I hoping the Bucks get a shot at Jeremy Lamb. Zeller wouldn’t be bad either.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:24 PM
Kevin Willis good comparison, I was thinking Deandre Jordan
im not a fan of Lamb from Uconn….He is no Rip Hamilton, Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, or even Rudy Gay…bust city
June 7th, 2012 at 2:24 PM
I would definitely call Barnes a catch-and-shoot guy. Dude’s offensive efficiency goes waaaaay down the longer he holds onto the rock.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:24 PM
Reading this post, I got the same glazed eye look that I imagine TBL gets when reading a Lisk stat post.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:25 PM
J-Mac have you done a new mock draft since the lottery?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:25 PM
And sorry, the Rivers-Westbrook comparison makes absolutely no sense.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:25 PM
I love all the white boy comparisons in the Zeller writeup. Shocking.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:26 PM
Tyler Zeller is white. Got it.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:26 PM
Ha, beat me to it, Htown
June 7th, 2012 at 2:27 PM
I didn’t realize Zo had a 7’6″ wingspan…Henson’s look longer to me ‘cuz of the muscle differential, I guess.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:27 PM
Harrison Barnes = Sean Elliott
Thomas Robinson = Kris Humphries
I like the Perry Jones – Thad Young comp.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:27 PM
Ahhh but will PJ get to star in a movie with Scarlett Johansson?
Btw Anthony Randolph has been “teeming with potential” for 4 years.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:28 PM
I think you’re selling Robinson a bit short there, but I love the Sean Elliot comparison.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:29 PM
I love all the white boy comparisons in the Zeller writeup. Shocking
well, what centers would you compare him too?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:30 PM
Barnes isn’t anywhere as good as Rice was in college. I just had to look it up, and Rice was even better than I thought. An effective FG% of 68% for his career, shot 48% from 3-point range, and 65% from 2-point. Barnes was a 35% shooter on 3′s in college. Maybe stylistically, but not as good.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:30 PM
What was his height?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:31 PM
Jack Sikma.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:31 PM
I enjoyed this …. good post. See some Gerald Wallce in MKG too.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:31 PM
Pretty sure this is what you would’ve said about an entering-the-NBA Andrew Bynum. What about Serge Ibaka? Too athletic? (I honestly didn’t watch a lot of Zeller in college)
June 7th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
Royal “we.”
June 7th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
honestly? white ones.
/raycess’d
June 7th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
@scalia I was thinking Chris Douglas Roberts 2.0 in MKG
June 7th, 2012 at 2:32 PM
From Wikipedia:
June 7th, 2012 at 2:33 PM
loved sully at OSU, but don’t see him being a great pro, unfortunately. blair’s not a bad comparison…sully’s got more offensive skill tho. he’ll probably be a good bench guy or a good numbers starter on a bad team, im thinking.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:33 PM
yao.
/just for fun
June 7th, 2012 at 2:34 PM
Sharone Wright.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:35 PM
who is the Glenn Big Dog Robinson of this draft? Barnes? White? P Jones?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:35 PM
Don’t think Robinson is anything more than a rebounder at the next level. Not that he won’t know what to do with the ball once he gets it (Reggie Evans), but I think that’s his role at the next level.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:35 PM
well, what centers would you compare him too?
Paul Mokeski.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:35 PM
honestly? white ones.
/raycess’d
Tyler Zeller is the Andrew Declerque of this draft
June 7th, 2012 at 2:36 PM
I didn’t.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:36 PM
I’m pretty muck ok with most of these comparisons, but for Harrison Barnes. Can’t hold Glen Rice’s jock, and will be out of NBA within 5 years. Simply put…he sucks.
Husker, you never heard this great story?
http://www.nbaloud.com/michael-jordan-and-labradford-smith/
June 7th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
I’m still surprised CDR didn’t make it in the pros. I felt like his game would translate well
June 7th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
Olowokandi
June 7th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
tim duncan.
/dollar
June 7th, 2012 at 2:37 PM
For the record, Humphries averaged 22 and 10 his only year at college. He also had the ability to step out and hit the 3.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:38 PM
LMAO spencer
June 7th, 2012 at 2:38 PM
I’m still surprised CDR didn’t make it in the pros. I felt like his game would translate well
oh me too, I’m a big Memphis fan….
June 7th, 2012 at 2:38 PM
this picture of floyd mayweather expresses how i feel about this.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:38 PM
I don’t see the Rivers/Westbrook thing at all either. Rivers is a much better shooter and not nearly the physical specimen Westbrook is.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:39 PM
Awesome. MJ’s ego takes a massive shit all over Kobe’s. If MJ played in the era of Twitter, blogs, etc…, I suspect we would view him differently than we do today.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:39 PM
Austin Rivers, Duke = Joe Forte
June 7th, 2012 at 2:40 PM
Good post TBL.
I was thinking MKG as Artest, of course he needs to work on his jump shot. At worst I think he’s Desmond Mason.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Jordan was as big of an asshat as Garnett and that’s what makes them both great…..among other things of course.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:41 PM
Corliss Williamson
June 7th, 2012 at 2:42 PM
I disagree. He’s an astounding major league asshole with the shaky insecurity of a teenager going through puberty, but we still love him.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:42 PM
i’d like to see the Wizards go MKG
June 7th, 2012 at 2:42 PM
wow Joe Forte, what a bust that guy was….Barnes= Forte maybe?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:43 PM
huh? kobe’s bad-PR moves aren’t stupid tweets or arrogant interviews…his negative rep was earned by his on-court demeanor, his style of play and in an eagle, CO hotel room. if anything, he’s helped by not doing much in the way of PR shit because ESPN fawns over him like nobody’s business since he doesn’t give anyone anything negative to eat up like lebron.
i suspect we’d view him the same.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:43 PM
In that MJ article — “recognisable”
June 7th, 2012 at 2:43 PM
@watsonian- agree w/ that comparison, Big Nasty
June 7th, 2012 at 2:44 PM
Austin Rivers, Duke = Jimmy Clausen
/Because fuck ‘em
June 7th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Yeah, I think it’s a solid comp. Big Nasty was great offensive spark off the bench.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Beware the undersized college 2-guard that does not possess an elite skill.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
Also what are the odds of MJ taking Barnes with the second pick? I don’t think he was associated with the regime that took Sean Mays, but perhaps they try that “UNC guy is with us!” crap again.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:46 PM
So Austin Rivers is gay?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:47 PM
Anthony Davis = Eddie Griffin
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
I read a Yahoo! mock that had my Pistons taking Henson and pairing him with Greg Monroe. Anyone with thoughts on this?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
Sully has 10x the offensive game that Corliss had. He was an awesome low post guy in a 6’5″ body.
Sully played center, but if really a 4 man on offense. He can put the ball on the floor, he can shoot from 18, and has deft around the basket. He is not a back to the basket guy (like Corliss or DeJuan Blair) who can only catch the ball in the post or get an offensive rebound.
Stretch 4′s will give Sully problems on defense. But, those same guys will struggle guarding him in the mid-range too.
I don’t think he is as strong as Kevin Love, but I think the type of game is similar. Great hands, great feet. Not great size to score inside.
I think there will be a lot of guys that are very surprised with Sully’s game at the next level.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
I suspect we wouldn’t view any athlete from the pre-internet era the same.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
This I agree with. I see Rivers as more Monta or Curry or even Steve Francis…and Westbrook is in the Rose class of just having other-world athleticism/explosiveness.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
gets in a mid-afternoon car accident because he was watching porn on his in-dash TV?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:48 PM
DaJuan Wagner
June 7th, 2012 at 2:49 PM
To any of the MN peeps. I’m going to be in Minneapolis for work at the end of the month. The White Sox are in town, and I’m considering catching a game, but I won’t really know if I can/should go until the last minute. I shouldn’t have any issues walking up to the box office the day of and getting cheap tickets, right?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
They seems like the same guy to me. I think they would struggle playing on the floor at the same time.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:50 PM
Sean May actually would have been a great pro if not for injury problems. Having said that, he had injury problems because he was pretty huge.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
-eddie griffin
June 7th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
Yea don’t know why I typed “Mays”. Probably too early to start drinking.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:51 PM
I think the Glen Rice-Barnes comparison makes sense stylistically, but no, Barnes couldn’t hold Rice’s jock.
I think the Rivers-Forte comparison makes a ton of sense stylistically, but, I doubt Rivers could have held Forte’s jock.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
Sullinger was man handled by Josh Harrelson of Kentucky last year and this year Jeff Whithey of Kansas in the NCAA tourney…just put a tall white boy on him and he struggles
June 7th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
Oh yeah. This. He was all-World, but never really excelled at anything. Wasn’t the greatest athlete, didn’t have a great handle, his jumper was just OK, and he wasn’t terribly quick (hands or feet) with or without the ball.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:52 PM
i bet one of you know-it-all assholes compared adam morrison to larry bird in a similar thread years ago.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:53 PM
it was the mustache.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:54 PM
I actually agree that the pendulum has swung too far in the anti-Sulliinger direction. He may end up being a good value pick.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Like this one. Dominant college player but undersized “below the rim” guy. Became a serviceable NBA role player, good bench scorer, lousy rebounder.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:54 PM
Rodney Rogers?
Could work but I think they’d be better off with a guy with a bit of toughness/strength. Though I don’t think Robinson will be more than a role player, I think he’d fit well playing next to Monroe.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
Hey now Harrellson is a beast. The “hard working, hustling and pesky white guy” tag fits him perfectly.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
his performance against kansas was absolutely shit-show awful. small sample size, sure…but god damn was that bad to watch.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:55 PM
He also had some serioues health problems….though I’m not sure he ever would have made it anyway. Could have morphed into a Jason Terry/Dragon type of career
June 7th, 2012 at 2:56 PM
And, he played out of position for 2 years… at least relative to what he’ll play in the Association. He isn’t a center, but he played one at OSU out of necessity.
UK chose to double him on defense, and for the first time all year, OSU couldn’t hit jumpers. He made his living passing the ball out of the post as a freshman. This year, OSU didn’t have the perimeter shooters to prevent the doubles, so Sully went 1v2 (or 3) a good deal. This is all very similar to why KLove looked like a bust at UCLA too.
I really think he is made more for the NBA than he was for college ball. He can pass out of doubles. He is hard to guard 1v1. Has great hands and great feel for game.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:56 PM
it was the mustache.
mama096 LOVES my stache.
/jab
June 7th, 2012 at 2:57 PM
Another comical bust who people thought was actually going to be good, but had no real basis for doing so: William Avery.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:57 PM
Reminds her of when her nonna used to kiss her.
/she’s Italian, right?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:57 PM
Agreed. He had a nasty form colitis. Maybe that prevented him to do some things, but I thought his game was overblown at UL when he was there too.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:58 PM
is that why i heard her making fun of your babydick when she was on the phone with mole earlier?
June 7th, 2012 at 2:58 PM
I know how important Diebler was to Sully, but I’m still surprised his numbers dipped (or, optimistically, didn’t improve) during his second season.
June 7th, 2012 at 2:59 PM
Another comical bust who people thought was actually going to be good, but had no real basis for doing so: William Avery.
Daniel Ewing too, Chris Duhon
June 7th, 2012 at 2:59 PM
@wally- true, good points
June 7th, 2012 at 3:00 PM
He went to Memphis. His dad played at UofL.
June 7th, 2012 at 3:01 PM
is that why i heard her making fun of your babydick when she was on the phone with mole earlier?
my penis is not accustomed to those frigid Cleveland night in June!!
June 7th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
I know this is cliche and all, but Sullinger is similar to Big Baby in the way he can use his body (inlcuding those huge-ass hips) to manipulate the defense and create space inside. I think he is going to have the same type of game where you’re suprised how he gets his shot off. Plus, he’s more skilled than Baby
June 7th, 2012 at 3:04 PM
I think Sullinger gets to the next level and people will say to themselves, “I can’t believe how small he looks out there.”
June 7th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
Damnit. Knew that too. Serves me right for typing too fast and not re-reading. Good catch, Jay V
June 7th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
this.
June 7th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
Glen Rice = best three point shooter in Michigan history.
Barnes = second best three point shooter on a Carolina team that lacked a dominant long range shooter.
Love the comparison.
June 7th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
my penis is not accustomed to
those frigid Cleveland night in June!!Women./Corrected
June 7th, 2012 at 3:07 PM
Just checked the stats of of their final seasons in college, failry similar actually:
Sully: 17.5ppg 9.2rpg 52%FG 77%FT 40%3′s (16 makes) 1.2apg 30.4mpg
Baby: 17.7ppg 10.4rpg 48%FG 71%FT 35%3′s (17 makes) 2.3apg 35mpg
June 7th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
Not cliche, and not a bad comp. He has better passing skills than Davis, but the body types of similar.
Biggest issue for Jared is upper body strength, which is correctable. That will help him power through in the post more often.
It’s tough to use power in college right now the way guys flop for defense. Jared became very defensive in the post because he got called for charges by just turing a shoulder and shooting. Of course, they are calling some of that garbage in the Association now too. (I’m looking at you, Battier)
June 7th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
Forte 6’4 185lbs Two Year Avg:
33.9MPG 18.7 PTS 45.4 FG% 36.7 3FG% 80.9 FT% 3.0 APG 5.8 RB 1.8 ST
Rivers 6’4 200lbs One year:
33.2 MPG 15.5PTS 43.3 FG% 36.5 3FT% 65.8 FT% 2.1 APG 3.4 RB 1.0 ST
Forte’s first year was better.
June 7th, 2012 at 3:24 PM
Every white big man who comes into the NBA should be graded on the following scale:
George Mikan / Bill Laimbeer / Rich Kelley
/ Not reverse-raycess
June 7th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
Andre Drummond – Tyson Chandler / Ben Wallace
Thomas Robinson – David Lee (Interracial comp! f*ck yea!)
Austin Rivers – Somewhere between Joe Forte and Steph Curry