The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs, once up 2-0 in the Conference Finals, now both find themselves down 3-2 after a Game 5 home loss. The two opponents at opposite ends of the age/experience spectrum, the Celtics and the Thunder, now have all that famous “momentum” and return home with a chance to close out the series.

So, how have teams done who were in the same position as the Celtics and Thunder? Interestingly, not as well as you might suspect, knowing that a team was good enough to win three games in a row and have a 3-2 series lead.

Since the ABA/NBA merger (1977), there have been 15 different seven game series where one team took a 2-0 series lead, and the other team won 3 straight. Two of those involved the better seeded team losing the first two games at home and then storming back with consecutive road wins before taking game 5 (Dallas over Houston in 2005 and Houston over Phoenix in 1994). In both those series, the better seed went on to win in Game 7.

The other 13 series fit in line with the Heat/Celtics and Spurs/Thunder, where the better seed stormed to a 2-0 lead in the series, then the other team rallied with three in a row. Here is a summary of those series.

The better seeded team trailing 3-2 after losing 3 straight went on to win the series 7 of 13 times. All of those series were in the H-H-A-A-H-A-H format except for the 2006 NBA Final series between the Heat and Mavericks, where the Heat won Game 6 on the road after winning 3 straight in Dallas Miami. As a result, when the better seed just lost game 5 at home to lose three in a row, they went back on the road and went 7-5 in game 6 and a perfect 7-0 in game 7. So much for momentum. The team that did a good job and gave a good effort in a loss in game 5 has won more often than not on the road in these situations.

I find that result a bit surprising, since the team with the series lead needed just one more win out of two, and we know they had to be good enough to win three straight. Still, just like when I looked at the Heat’s chances after a game 3 loss against Indiana, the outcome of these two series is still very much in doubt, and we have two huge Game 6′s coming up.

[photo via US Presswire, all series info from basketball-reference.com]