The Superconference Era is Here, Bring on the Big 12 Expansion
The Big 12 and the SEC will create the “Champions Bowl,” their faux Rose Bowl to rival the Big Ten and Pac 12. In isolation it is just a bowl game, but in concert with a shifting paradigm it is significant. It’s not a “game changer,” but a reflection of how much the game has changed. College football has entered “the superconference era.” It won’t be written, as those anti-trust lawsuits can be pesky, but the next postseason system will favor the Big Ten, the SEC, the Pac 12 and the Big 12 overwhelmingly.
The four-team playoff is coming. The debate will be choosing the teams. Expect compromise between the “conference champions” and “top four teams camps.” Expect some conference champions, with parameters for accepting a deserving wild card team. How will programs be seeded and ranked? Multiple commissioners and athletic directors have brought up strength of schedule. SOS weights heavily toward the major conferences.
The Big Ten, Pac 12, Big 12 and SEC already play the toughest schedules. That will be enhanced by the Big Ten/Pac 12 non-conference scheduling agreement. It’s not a stretch for the Big 12 and SEC to realize a similar arrangement might work out for them. The remainder of their scheduling would be body bag games. ACC and Big East teams would have weaker conference schedules and a nearly impossible time trying to rectify it through non-conference games.
Three to four teams from the big conferences would make the playoff every year. Adding the two major bowl games, that composes a BCS with entirely big conference teams. It’s not the present BCS, but a far more lucrative one where there’s at least double the TV revenue and bowl games are beholden to schools. Those conference already dominate the best second-tier bowl games below that. That should only polarize further in 2014. Under that system, there’s no need for an eight or 16-team bracket creep. The four conference title games become the missing playoff games. They would become vastly more lucrative properties. That’s where realignment comes in.
The Big 12 needs a title game. This means adding at least two teams and possibly four. The conference has its logical target, the football schools in the ACC. Reportedly, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Miami have made informal contact with the Big 12.
Regardless of what is said now, expect those teams to leave the ACC. The conference all but guaranteed this the moment it signed an awful TV deal that leaves its football “powers” at a disadvantage for the next two decades. Those schools might construct a financial argument for staying, but won’t be able construct a competitive one. Losing money is conscionable. Resigning to second-class football status is not. The ACC would not be frozen out, but it would become very, very cold. Notre Dame is not ceding its independent status to bail out a sinking ship. The only thing derailing a potential move of ACC football schools to the Big 12 is the SEC deciding to hijack two of them.
The 2014 postseason reforms will alter the paradigm. How much may remain unclear, but the uncertainty will inspire only more rash action.
[Photo via Presswire]

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78 Responses to “The Superconference Era is Here, Bring on the Big 12 Expansion”
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May 22nd, 2012 at 4:04 PM
The Big 12, the ACC, and the Big East should all merge and form a 24 team or so much-better-than-but-not-quite-”super”-per se conference
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:05 PM
Regardless of what is said now, those teams will leave the ACC. The conference guaranteed this the moment it signed an awful TV deal that leaves its football “powers” at a disadvantage for the next two decades. Those schools might construct a financial argument for staying, but won’t be able construct a competitive one. Losing money is conscionable. Resigning to second-class football status is not. The ACC would not be frozen out, but it would become very, very cold. Notre Dame is not ceding its independent status to bail out a sinking ship. The only thing derailing a potential move of ACC football schools to the Big 12 is the SEC deciding to hijack two of them.
You wrote this paragraph twice.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:05 PM
I want four 32 team conferences, each with four 8 team divisions!
/Slams desk
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:06 PM
Dammit. Average. Much-better-than-average… conference. Oh, well. I blew it. I want everyone to treat the first comment like an ACC title game, don’t look at it
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:06 PM
I assume the second “Regardless of what is said now” paragraph is the one you meant to keep in the post, because it mentions Notre Dame.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:06 PM
Appalachian State to the ACC.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:08 PM
With all this talk of Florida State to the Big 12 being all but a done deal, I’m a little surprised there’s no chatter of the SEC stepping in and snatching FSU, to keep the Big 12 footprint out of its backyard. The rumor was always that there was resistance from Florida but I would have to think that’s small ball in the super conference era.
Regardless, long live the Big 12.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:09 PM
Regardless….
This was a good post.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:09 PM
because it mentions Notre Dame.
Good catch, Gfunk. Pageviews.
It seems like everyone is going to a lot of trouble to reorganize just for football which will be banned soon.
/Takes a look at the millions of dollars football generates.
Haha, that Malcom Gladwell is a dufus. Football ain’t going anywhere.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:10 PM
Can you tell me about how the ACC signed a TV deal that kept its football powers at a disadvantage?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:11 PM
i laughed.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:12 PM
No question any talk of banning football is silly. But I’m reading a book now called The Concussion Crisis and there is some scary shit in there. No doubt the game will have to change. And I think it can.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:12 PM
If this means we never have to hear about Boise State again, then it’s perfect.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:14 PM
Banning football? No.
Football becoming financially unsustainable for the lower levels because of rising insurance costs from concussions in the near future? Absolutely possible.
Don’t think that was Gladwell’s argument though, guy sucks.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:14 PM
No doubt the game will have to change. Big Hoss
There’ll be some token changes to satiate the media, but unless ratings and revenues decline, I don’t the changes as being big. I don’t think the NCAA is going institute a Five Mississippi count rush on the QB.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:15 PM
fuckin’ canadian nerd ass bitch.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:16 PM
Football becoming financially unsustainable for the lower levels because of rising insurance costs from concussions in the near future? Absolutely possible
It’ll be interesting to see how far the ex-players get in the NFL suit. If they start collecting money, the next entity to be sued will be the NCAA/individual universities. And, yeah, that’d kill lower level football.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:16 PM
We used to debate whether to take the one-loss team from BCS conference or the undefeated mid-major. That’s just being replaced by “one-loss team from super conference vs. undefeated team from Big East.” We still lose.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:17 PM
just a year ago, the big 12 was being taken out back to be shot. now it looks pretty damn strong and getting stronger.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:18 PM
I’m sorry but it remains unclear – what new super-conference’s 5th-place team gets to beat the shit out of Notre Dame in a bowl game?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:18 PM
I think it’ll have to go further than “token.” What that means exactly, I don’t know, but they simply have to reduce the contact to the head. Not just the kill shots or the kickoff returns but the routine stuff nobody thinks much about.
At some point it will stop being about satisfying the media and start being about satisfying a huge class-action judgement and insurance companies.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:18 PM
Whatever. The SEC is gonna win the title again this year anyway. Or maybe USC.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:19 PM
John Saunders?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:20 PM
Not just lower level, but high school – especially with the financial stress local governments are already under these days. Who could afford to pay the premiums?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:21 PM
At some point it will stop being about satisfying the media and start being about satisfying a huge class-action judgement and insurance companies. Hoss
I am skeptical on how those will turn out. Like I have no idea.
/not a lawyer
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:22 PM
Not many are able to take complex and rather abstract ideas and dumb them down enough to explain to the masses. He and Michael Lewis are both great in this regard. I don’t agree with some of the stuff that he says, but his books are fascinating reads.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:23 PM
I don’t think the NCAA is going institute a Five Mississippi count rush on the QB.
Michigan was being progressive and started this in the Rich Rod era to avoid potential litigation.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:24 PM
Not just lower level, but high school – especially with the financial stress local governments are already under these days. Who could afford to pay the premiums? Hoss
Nike. They’ll build a youth football academies all over the country. And then Reebok, etc… would do the same. They would only take the best kids and feed them into the super-conferences. And then the non-football kids would turn to soccer in high school and then long-anticipated, much balleyhooyed “Soccer will be big in the US!” will actually happen and then Nike and adiddas will sell more soccer shoes.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
gladwell must’ve spent 10,000 SUCKING DICK.
/high fives
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
Appalachian State to the ACC.
I like that idea. GA Southern, too? GA Tech would not approve.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
I’d be surprised if USC even gets there.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
*hours
/whatever
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
Actually it really is just a new bowl game.
Everything I’m reading is that it will be the top 3 ranked conf champs and then the remaining highest ranked team. I’m ok with that.
This new paradigm shifting bowl game gets the leftovers.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:25 PM
Nike. They’ll build a youth football academies all over the country. And then Reebok, etc… would do the same. They would only take the best kids and feed them into the super-conferences. And then the non-football kids would turn to soccer in high school and then long-anticipated, much balleyhooyed “Soccer will be big in the US!” will actually happen and then Nike and adiddas will sell more soccer shoes.
So what you’re saying is that the terrorists have taken over Nike?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:26 PM
I just don’t like the way he looks and that he associates with Simmons.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:26 PM
I think the train has left the station and it’s just a matter of when and how big this thing tips. It reminds me somewhat of the realization over decades that smoking isn’t harmless. It will take time and there will be resistance but I don’t think football as we know it is sustainable, in terms of the contact we allow and technique we coach. Football can exist but something will have to change.
/also not a lawyer
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:27 PM
My farts could straight up make onions weep right now.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:27 PM
So what you’re saying is that the terrorists have taken over Nike?
Nope. The East Germans and the Soviets.
I just don’t like the way he looks and that he associates with Simmons.
I think a lot of it is that. And the perma-smug look always on his face.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:28 PM
you forgot to mention how TBL single-handily pioneered the playoffs and then link to several articles where wrote about a 8 or 16 team playoff
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:29 PM
I think the train has left the station and it’s just a matter of when and how big this thing tips. It reminds me somewhat of the realization over decades that smoking isn’t harmless. It will take time and there will be resistance but I don’t think football as we know it is sustainable, in terms of the contact we allow and technique we coach. Football can exist but something will have to change.
/buys stock in flag making company
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:29 PM
Or amateurism will be done away with completely like in England and players will sign with professional teams when they’re children and develop through the team’s own system and our education system would skyrocket because all the money pissed away on sports programs in middle school and high school could be spent on books.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:29 PM
lol
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:30 PM
and our education system would skyrocket because all the money pissed away on sports programs in middle school and high school could be spent on books.
You think that’s where the money would go?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:30 PM
Even if the NFL wins the lawsuits the premiums are going to go way up.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 PM
In reality? No way in hell. More likely to go to public financing for a new stadium for a pro team than schools.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:33 PM
iPads…paper is for suckers.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:33 PM
I didn’t literally mean books, I just mean actual education related spending.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:33 PM
More six-figure administration redundancy!
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:34 PM
Don Beebe can fix all this concussion BS
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:36 PM
I didn’t literally mean books, I just mean actual education related spending.
It’d be nice, but as you suggested above, when there’s a sudden surplus, our government–be it federal, state, or local–does not have a very good history in spending it wisely.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:38 PM
Don Beebe can fix all this concussion BS
There’s a lineman on the 49ers who used to wear one of those too. It used to get ripped to shreds by the end of each game.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:38 PM
Only problem is that unlike soccer, size and speed are such a huge factor in American football. It can be hard to determine if a kid will have the physical tools necessary to excel at American football when he’s only 8 years old. The Nike Camps or something the equivalent of Clarefontaine in France is the way to keep football going if it fades at the high school and university level. Go Big 12, by the way.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:39 PM
Trillion dollar tax cuts for all! 10+ year wars! Yee-haw! ‘Merica fuck yeah!
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:39 PM
want.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:41 PM
Steve Wallace. It was a styrofoam layer on top of the normal helmet.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:42 PM
There was a ninja turtles one the other day I saw on the Chive. Similar to that.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:42 PM
The Big East just gave up…
5m Stewart Mandel @slmandel
RT @ChuckCarltonDMN: Big East football championship game will be held on campus sites not at a neutral site like New York City.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:42 PM
want.
that would go sweet with a nice pair of jorts
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:45 PM
Steve Wallace. It was a styrofoam layer on top of the normal helmet.
Yep, that’s who I was thinking of. It was an additional layer that went on top of the basic helmet. It was called “Pro-Cap” or something like that. As far as I recall, only him and Beebe used it during their playing days.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:46 PM
The Big East just gave up…
5m Stewart Mandel @slmandel
RT @ChuckCarltonDMN: Big East football championship game will be held on campus sites not at a neutral site like New York City.
Shit.
Sooo, Big 12. How you doin’.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:50 PM
Sooo, Big 12. How you doin’.
The Big East Championship being played in Boise has a certain gawker quality to it.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:51 PM
Poorly designed and staffed by smug pricks with mustaches?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:52 PM
He’s a trail blazer
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:54 PM
help prevent concusions by moving d-line 2 yards off the ball. Neither o-line or d-line can have a hand on the ground. First downs would become 15 yards.
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:57 PM
So every snap becomes like a mini kickoff?
May 22nd, 2012 at 4:59 PM
What could go wrong?
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:02 PM
How you figure? THere’s not enough momentum built up. The head-to-head contact that is constant in lineplay now virtually goes away. It becomes about athleticism and positioning.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:05 PM
help prevent concusions by moving d-line 2 yards off the ball. Neither o-line or d-line can have a hand on the ground. First downs would become 15 yards.
Moving them 2 yards off the ball gives a HUGE advantage to the offense. Even if you made first downs 5 yards longer, you’d still see a rather large upswing in scoring.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:05 PM
Have you seen a collision between a LB and FB? Now you are just increasing the mass of these collisions.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:05 PM
Pac12 has a campus championship game.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:06 PM
Pac12 has a campus championship game.
The Pac12 doesn’t need other means to make it a legitimate football conference. The Big East does.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:08 PM
Well, if you need the other means, then you’re not going to be a legit football conference anyway.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:09 PM
Well, if you need the other means, then you’re not going to be a legit football conference anyway.
No shit. So we need all the glitz and glamor we can get; including a championship game in New York City.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:12 PM
FB is 5 yards off the ball, LB is 5 yards off the ball. They run into each other from 10 yards apart. I’m describing a totally different deal where people are 2 yards apart without the time to build up the energy of a FB-LB collision.
With the talk of lawsuits related to concussions in football, the game will be different in 20 years. The LOS will be looked at. Sure, scoring will go up and it’ll loook like 7-on-7, but the game is going that way anyhow. I’d expect a wider field and perhaps longer, too.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:17 PM
This is a combination of speculation and some good info, but I think this SEC/Big XII championship game is way more important than it appears…especially in the realignment matrix. It gives the SEC and Big XII the same type of agreement/game that the PAC 14 and Big Ten have, but it has to be much more than that.
It sounds like there are many things working behind the scenes on realignment. College football is headed for four super conferences, and is probably headed there very fast. Three conferences were already set to take three of the four spots: Big Ten, PAC-14 and SEC. That left the Big XII and ACC to battle for the last spot.
The Big XII was on death’s doorstep not long ago, but they have been moving feverishly to add quality programs. At the same time, the SEC has been wanting to add UNC for a very long time in addition to a Virginia school. It expands the footprint significantly to pull in more TVs and takes in the remainder of the South.
There is only one spot left in the four super conferences. I’d say the Big XII is likely now the fourth conference in the four superconferences. Am I over-stating the importance of the SEC/Big XII championship game? Maybe, but maybe not. What if the SEC and Big XII got together to destabilize the ACC to both get what they want? The SEC gets UNC and VTech. The Big XII gets FSU and Clemson and picks off other programs like Miami, NC State, Louisville and Cincinnati. The Big Ten picks up ND, Virginia, Syracuse and BC…something along those lines. Duke may be in there somewhere.
Think that is too much of a conspiracy theory? Let’s put it this way. Mike Slive doesn’t agree to something like a championship game with the conference that has members that threatened to sue him and the SEC several months ago without getting something big in return. I could be way off on this, but let’s see what happens over the next year.
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:17 PM
Ban youth football. Can’t start tackle fb until 12
May 22nd, 2012 at 5:23 PM
Fine, so the Oklahoma drill repeated 70 times over a 3 hour period…still not a sound action plan for safety.
May 23rd, 2012 at 9:25 AM
what a bad decision not to go to a playoff a decade ago. It has ruined rivalries and conferences. it’ll start with four but we all know it’ll be 16 in 10 years.