So, uh, is James Harden a Max Contract Player?
After James Harden carved up the Mavericks for 29 points in a series-clinching win Saturday, a reporter had the temerity to ask Russell Westbrook if he thought Harden was a max contract player. Clearly caught off guard, Westbrook – who inked an $80 million extension in January – danced around the question the same way he skirts around defenders, and then told the reporter, “no more questions for you, bro.”
It’s understandable that Westbrook wouldn’t want to touch the Harden contract situation. It’s a tenuous one. With Harden, OKC probably has the 2nd best three-pronged attack in the league (Miami’s 1st). But how long can they keep a shooting guard who is rapidly becoming one of the league’s best? It seems highly unlikely (impossible?) OKC would be able to retain Durant, Westbrook and Harden. Kendrick Perkins has a weighty contract and they’ll have to pay Serge Ibaka big money, too. This July, the Thunder can offer extensions to Harden and Ibaka. If neither signs an extension, they’ll both be restricted free agents in the summer of 2013.
So there are two questions at play here. 1) Is James Harden worth a max contract? and 2) Will James Harden get a max contract?
1) I don’t think Harden is worthy of a max contract. How could anyone say for sure? When you’ve got Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on your team, and the defenses are geared to stop those two – both were in the top 5 in scoring this season – yes, Harden is going to be difficult to defend. (If you’re into the “PER” stat – and I’m not – the following guards had a higher PER than Harden this season – CP3, Wade, Ginobili, Rose, Westbrook, Parker, Kobe, Irving, Curry.) I liken Harden’s situation to that of Manu Ginobili – excellent off the bench, provides pop when one or both of your stars need rest, and is invaluable late in games. Ginobili fell into a great spot in San Antonio, and he probably could have gotten a little more money to play elsewhere, but would rather be a 6th man on a title contender every year. Would Harden stay in OKC for less money to win a title or two (or more) with Durant and Westbrook?
2) If Harden passes on the extension, who might have deep enough pockets to offer him big money in 2013 when he’s a restricted free agent? Charlotte will eventually need to add a scoring guard. With Anthony Davis, would that be an attractive team? If Cleveland goes big in the draft, how about a Kyrie Irving/James Harden backcourt? Could Dallas make a play for Harden in 2013 if it has money because the Mavs couldn’t sign Deron Williams? Keeping the timetable in mind, Harden is from California … how about the Lakers or Clippers? Just tossing out some other destinations, for fun – Orlando to play with Dwight Howard? Minnesota with Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio? Just something to remember – the Thunder appear to be on their way to the NBA finals. Of those seven potential destinations, three are in the lottery now, one got swept, another is about to get bounced, and the Lakers and Clippers are kind of fantasy options at this point given their cap situations.

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87 Responses to “So, uh, is James Harden a Max Contract Player?”
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May 7th, 2012 at 3:02 PM
No.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:03 PM
Not at all, but someone will probably disagree.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
James Harden is a better version of Joe Johnson, but both are players who have no business getting max deals.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:05 PM
EEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2012 at 3:06 PM
Phoenix.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:08 PM
Can any economics people explain if this is a good, bad or indifferent graph?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:09 PM
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/7899745/big-east-commish-john-marinatto-quits-amid-shifting-landscape
May 7th, 2012 at 3:09 PM
Right now he’s the best 2-guard in the league not named Kobe or Wade, which counts for something.
If he were on a team that felt like they HAD to keep him (Atlanta with Johnson, Memphis with Gay) I could see him getting that type of deal, but ultimately I think he’s in the $12M range. Maybe he gets Iggy money ($14-$15M) but not sure I see that happening.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:13 PM
This season, prior to last game, I’d like you to guess how many baskets Harden had the last 3 minutes of games with the score within 5 points. That said, I love Harden and he is only 22.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
in a word, no.
won’t stop some team from over paying, though.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:14 PM
Also, what’s the cap situation in 2013/14 for all the teams you listed? Or are you just throwing stuff out there?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
Is bad graph for misery. phony money buy vodka. toil of land harvest yield to low for buying of vodka. flock to debtors prison we go.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:16 PM
This does not help me.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
Anyone watching this soccer game on ESPN2? I’ve seen some shit run on the field in my day but a chicken dressed in the team’s flag takes the cake.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:17 PM
Read this as “quits amid shifting sandscape,” which seemed like a prudent decision.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:18 PM
Brooklyn. He’s going to wind up in Brooklyn.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:19 PM
I’m gonna let someone more in the know answer your question, but until then, I’m taking issue with you calling that a graph. I’m not singling you out because this nomenclature failure problem seems to be permeating internet society more and more. I’m merely using your questions as an example of an egregious, seemingly-acceptable error…someone calls a chart a table or a table a graph. FUCKING A.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:19 PM
funny, i read that as “quits amid shitting landscape.” what kind of asshole doesn’t finish poozbekistan?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:20 PM
What’s funny is I actually thought you would get on me after I realized I said graph and not chart.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
He is probably not quite a max guy. But Phoenix is going to make him one and harden will come here.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
Pump the brakes there captain, there is much more riveting basketball to be played in the West.
Also Harden isnt a max player but some GM will crush their team cap with a max deal.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:21 PM
’m merely using your questions as an example of an egregious, seemingly-acceptable error…someone calls a chart a table or a table a graph. FUCKING A.
It is a damn calamity in this country right now.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:22 PM
Here is an illuminating info-graphic.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
lol @ cunty
May 7th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
What’s funny
not really
May 7th, 2012 at 3:23 PM
http://i.imgur.com/zplgy.gif
May 7th, 2012 at 3:24 PM
In a world where your 4th highest paid guy is Rashard Lewis(21.1mil), I’ll take a quote from the #2 guy on the list, Anything is Possible?!?!
May 7th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
I don’t blame you. I blame tv.
also, I’ve studied that table and the full report and have no clue what it means. that’s a different language that I just don’t speak, yet. I do know that American Express randomly increased our monthly spending limit by almost 20% last quarter though. it’s like they’re baiting us to buy a car with the credit card now.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:25 PM
What’s funny
not really
never mind…i’m not qualified to judge this
May 7th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
Consumer debt is up. Banks are lending out more money for goods, people are borrowing more money for those goods. The assumption to be made is that its getting easier to borrow. If that’s the case, it skewers more towards a good thing.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:26 PM
lol @ 26.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
not chart.
had a hispanic teacher for an ESL cert class a couple years ago. heavy accent. everytime she said chart i heard shart
May 7th, 2012 at 3:27 PM
Of course the future political candidate brings the goods. Thanks.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
Jersey…did you see the kicks ND is gonna wear for their game in Ireland this fall? Badass.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:29 PM
The assumption to be made is that its getting easier to borrow.
not sure about easier. more attractive yes. mortgage rates at 3.8? we don’t want easier, that’s partly what fucked things up. that and amoral lenders
May 7th, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Badass.
yes. they are bad and look like ass
May 7th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
maybe if the irish stole italian cooking like they stole the italian flag, they’d be able to come up with something else to eat other than potatoes and prospered. just sayin.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:31 PM
spencer – you know that irrational fear thing you were talking about earlier? GoTG’s comment reminded me of another…every time I comment here, I’m like “what if I run for office and one of these douchebags that goes by ‘sportsgal’ digs up my old comments about ending women’s suffrage or some shit like that?” it scares me; then I post my comment anyway.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
Can any economics people explain if this is a good, bad or indifferent graph?
Indifferent. (I’m an analyst in a major credit card division). Traditionally, credit card debt trends to a peak at late March, then decreases through mid-Sept, then slowly rises, jumps at the holidays, then continues a slight ascent to March. This is becasue in the USA, seasonal (summer) employment goes up and this summer income reduces the need for credit. Also, since CARD ACT, credit cards are becoming deprioritized at major institutions as an income driver and used more as a relationship item. I.E. Major banks are giving out less risky credit on credit cards.
What you’d really need to know if the credit lent was prime or sub-prime. The credit quality is key.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:33 PM
Go align yourself with Hitler you hairy spaghetti eating date rapist.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:34 PM
Be honest, you have a semblance of a soul and want nothing to do with public office and you have get fucked without the fun of an orgasm. Guys like you and me will be the ones behind the scenes of the candidate, which means our insane, over-the-top comments will do some damage, but they won’t be deal breakers.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
How many “max guys” are there in the league?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:35 PM
Well considering the crunch that has happened the past 5-6 years and how tight banks have been with lending money, any lessening of the belt has too be considered a good thing. Overall confidence that people are making money and want to buy things again should be taken on the surface as good. Plus, that data from Husker’s table probably doesn’t even figure mortgages into their calculations.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
The Thunder are at about $48.6 mil in ’13/’14 with KD, Russ, Perk, Thabo and Collison. I’m not sure what the luxury tax will be that year, but I know that’s the year the incremental penalty kicks in. The minimum luxury tax is around $70 mil. They also need to get Aldrich (team option in 13/14) and Maynor (QO in 13/14) figured out.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:36 PM
now that’s an irrational fear…you stand up to those questioning your comments, even better, say that was your favorite comment you ever made. the press won’t dig if you don’t have anything to hide.
i call this the ‘clear and present danger’ strategy. it’s failsafe.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:38 PM
Plus, that data from Husker’s table probably doesn’t even figure mortgages into their calculations.
you know i didn;t look at the chart
May 7th, 2012 at 3:38 PM
what was that seamus o’faggot?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:40 PM
probaby true. if we ever face off, I’ll be sure to run tv ads labeling your candidate as a 32-team playoff guy.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:41 PM
I really do wonder how much Ibaka is going to comman. I mean, it is safe to assume that Harden will be damn close to a max deal. But you know how this league likes to compensate ANY big.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:42 PM
I like them. I really really do. I am just getting really cautious with all the uniform quirks they’ve been making for games. I don’t know why.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:42 PM
I’d say he’s pretty damn close. I also question whether Ibaka is a near-max player as well. Would you rather pay Ibaka 90% of a max contract or Bosh 100% of a max contract?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Because you have a soul?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Wait just a god damn minute, Miz. That shit is off limits. I can handle saying my candidate is shitting all over the Constitution, but I won’t stand by and let my good name be slandered like that.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:44 PM
Non revolving credit would include mortgages… I would think the threat of a federally subsidized student loan rate increase would have an impact on the increase in consumer credit, with more students getting the loans before the rate increase.
/not an economist
May 7th, 2012 at 3:45 PM
NEB is doing something different for one game this year. I would love for them to come out with black pants or black jerseys. I would like it even more if they went with a black helmet, but Dr. Tom already said they weren’t changing the helmet at all.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:45 PM
Biggest cocksucker move in the history of this website. The fuck are you thinking revealing my real name.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
I know a couple that just bought a 50 thousand dollar truck just because. They also have a fully loaded 2010 Tundra. They just traded in their 1 ton Ram that they still owed 28 thousand on but got the dealership to pay it off. Their combined truck notes were 1800 a month and im sure its higher now. These people are correctional officers and have a lot of other bills. WHAT THE FUCK, BANK?
May 7th, 2012 at 3:46 PM
People are stupid but I thought the banks would save people from themselves by now.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
that’s politics, bitch.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:47 PM
I think he should get Varejao money (~$9/yr), but I’d bet he gets Chandler/Nene money (~$14/yr and $13/yr).
May 7th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
OT…and perhaps discussed already. Eli Manning was surprisingly great on SNL. The skit with him on the stand was all-timer.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Why do they care…they are going to have a sweet house and a Tundra in about 20 months.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:50 PM
Let’s definitely not blame the guy making 50 grand a year who bought a $500,000 house.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:50 PM
Austin Croshere once fooled a GM with his playoff play.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
that’s a violation of Section IV of the Commenters’ Bill of Rights.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:52 PM
Both sides are to blame. The dude who is buying the house should know he can’t afford it, and the people checking on the loans should know this as well. The problem lies when one of the other ignores reality. The bank shouldn’t sell the shit loan off when they know it’s just that, shit, and the dude making $50k a year should know that there is no fucking way he can afford his house.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:53 PM
I really think (hope) with the new luxury tax rules those days are over.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:53 PM
Correct.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
Let’s definitely not blame the guy making 50 grand a year who bought a $500,000 house
so wanting more is a crime?
more blame for the folks who said yes to the guy. they have the ability to say no and should have
May 7th, 2012 at 3:54 PM
People are stupid but I thought the banks would save people from themselves by now.
Depends where they got the note. There are some credit unions flush with cash just giving it away, plus trucks hold up well so if they see ability (income) stability (length of and type of employment) and good credit rating, they are giving that loan out 10 of 10 times.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:56 PM
You’re right. My bad. I keep just looking at the revolving credit numbers.
That’s partially true. There was a big boost in federal education loans. There were also rises in a ton of other markets if you click on the complete version of that chart.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:56 PM
not in this case. Im just waiting on the after effects of all of this.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:58 PM
Financial Executives that mask the amount of toxic assets are the culprits. By and large, the vast sum of bankers are normal people doing their best. I cannot speak to the bulk of the mortgage industry. But it’s really the financial people that masked assets and repackaged them that allowed a whole lot of bad to happen.
May 7th, 2012 at 3:59 PM
Why can’t the applicant look at the monthly payments and say “wow that’s almost as high as my monthly income, probably shouldn’t do this”?
What about the banker who gets a bigger bonus for selling those mortgages? It’s easy to sit there and say that he shouldn’t give that loan, but when someone puts a bigger pay check in front of you lots of things are possible.
Again, both are to blame.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:00 PM
No, but you should probably earn it. I certainly would love to conjure money I don’t have out of thin air, but I know I have a lot of work to do to get to where I want to be.
I have no sympathy for someone that would buy a 500K house on a 50K salary.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:02 PM
Usually this isn’t the case, though. The rate is a teaser of some kind which is much lower at first. Yes, it all comes down to personal responsibility, but people being duped did in fact happen, and as No. 73 stated, the big firms who hid the toxic assets really fucked us over.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:08 PM
I know how it works. Maybe my comment was a bit lazy. I’m just saying that the homeowners are not blameless.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:12 PM
So…yeah. FSU and Clemson aren’t coming and $30 million a year was never happening (directed at the dude who thought otherwise a few posts ago).
May 7th, 2012 at 4:17 PM
Or the “If a little is good, a lot is better” mentality that increased the subprime portion of the mortgage backed securities from <5% to almost 50% over the period of 5 years.
Or the ratings companies who didn't even open the portfolios they were evaluating, and just pegged the ratings based on similar offerings in the past.
Or the derivative market, where for a fraction of the cost of owning an asset, people could go long or short, which caused a minor headache to spiral into a disaster.
Really, there is no shortage of blame to go around.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:21 PM
So if we are gonna compare Harden to Manu, who is a Hall of Famer, thats a pretty solid argument for a max contract no? If he chooses to leave OKC he will get a max deal, the league execs love this guy, and so does the media which will drive his price up.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:25 PM
Lorenzo – if you don’t like the Manu comp, who would you prefer?
May 7th, 2012 at 4:31 PM
I think Manu is a great comp for Harden. I think he can get max money from somewhere, but like Manu, I don’t think he can carry a team. He’s a perfect fit for this Thunder team, and I would bet that they make it work with him in OKC.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:32 PM
JMac, I’m not disagreeing with the comp at all, I’m just saying if Manu had ever left SA he would have gotten a max deal. He chose to stay and take less. If Harden leaves he will get paid. I like the comp, I’m a Spurs fan and he reminds me a lot of a young Manu. They both have the smarts on the court that you can’t teach.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:45 PM
Lorenzo – put me in the manu camp – happiness and success for a little less money over making bank and being unhappy playing for a bad team.
And really, what are we talking here, $50 mil vs. $65 million? (I’m just tossing out numbers, i have no clue if there would be a 10 or 20 million gap)
May 7th, 2012 at 4:55 PM
Manu is a HOF’er because of his international accomplishments, so unless Harden has a history of leading Jamaica or wherever to international victories, the Manu comparison doesn’t bite.
May 7th, 2012 at 4:56 PM
Lorenzo – put me in the manu camp – happiness and success for a little less money over making bank and being unhappy playing for a bad team.
And really, what are we talking here, $50 mil vs. $65 million? (I’m just tossing out numbers, i have no clue if there would be a 10 or 20 million gap)
I totally agree with you, but the one thing you have to remember is that Manu was adored in SA with the large Spanish speaking population down there. I bet he made that money back and then some in endorsements. But yea to people like us $50mm is the same as $65mm, we will all take the $50mm and not make a sound. Some of these guys veiw it as a personal insult when they don’t get offered a max deal, which is stupid to me but I’m not in that situation. I hope he stays because that is a serious core they have built right there and it would be fun to watch them win the titles that Lebron and Wade thought they were getting when they joined forces.
May 7th, 2012 at 5:04 PM
Manu is a HOF’er because of his international accomplishments, so unless Harden has a history of leading Jamaica or wherever to international victories, the Manu comparison doesn’t bite.
True but their games are very similar, and he has quite a few years on Manu who entered the league at like 24-25 and Harden entered at about 20. If he has a Manu career with the added 4-5 years of stats and 2-3 titles he’ll be in the HOF discussion.